Down goes the Dow

Those rates correspond to what I see. I really believe T-Bills and CDs are the best current investment opportunities today. Not sexy but losing money will eventually turn you into a eunuch anyway.

Very sensible market we had today

Bear market confirmed

https://twitter.com/OddStats/status/1072624187586555904

agip wrote:

Reesky stuff wrote:

Pretty risky is you are going out several years.

You will take a beating if interest rates rise a lot.

Remember that CD ladders are losers every day - they pay less than inflation. So obviously that's one risk.

The other risk is opportunity loss but I'm sure Iggy is comfortable with that.

but rates rising are ok on a short ladder like that one - not much of a risk.

I'd opt for an online bank account instead - you can get 2%, totally liquid and they will adjust the rate as the market changes.

Why lock up your money at all? Unless the CD rates are better than 2% I suppose.

FDIC issues also come into play.

Treasuries are better than CDs. They pay more and don’t have the same tax issues. Why aren’t you financial advisors recommending that route?

Uncle Sam wrote:

[

Treasuries are better than CDs. They pay more and don’t have the same tax issues. Why aren’t you financial advisors recommending that route?

Got to admit---that's all I have been buying the last two months.

agip wrote:

Racket wrote:

Well, all green now! Market makers just wanted you specifically to sell I guess. Dow 30k here we come!

feck I bottom ticked that

but I totally called my panic as a reverse indicator, did I not?

I do that all the time. Don't feel bad. I am getting better about waiting for the right moment. Didn't trade a share today. Will wait for either a very strong indication that i need to take profits or a very significant indication that we've capitulated and are in for the rebound.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

OK, I guess we got to a 1.37% 10 Year Treasury, negative Bund and JGB, oh and $16 Trillion in QE all by chance. I’m my view that was the driver of the Bull Market you love. Not surprisingly that market struggles as this is unwound. Hey but who knows?

It absolutely was the driver of the Bull. And it worked beautifully.

seattle prattle wrote:

agip wrote:

feck I bottom ticked that

but I totally called my panic as a reverse indicator, did I not?

I do that all the time. Don't feel bad. I am getting better about waiting for the right moment. Didn't trade a share today. Will wait for either a very strong indication that i need to take profits or a very significant indication that we've capitulated and are in for the rebound.

lol my strategy is I just don't care anymore. I was down $7k this morning and just laughed. Finished the day only down like $400. No big deal, lost $17k in a day back in November right before the election. I'm just numb to it at this point so I don't panic sell anymore. Market is all over the place and what I learned is that as long as you hold, you'll get to sell your short when the Dow is 800 points down or sell your long when it's up 700 points. I look forward to the new normal tomorrow when the Dow travels between 500 points up and down, probably at least twice.

Shorts have an indefinite time frame?

KeIIy wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

OK, I guess we got to a 1.37% 10 Year Treasury, negative Bund and JGB, oh and $16 Trillion in QE all by chance. I’m my view that was the driver of the Bull Market you love. Not surprisingly that market struggles as this is unwound. Hey but who knows?

It absolutely was the driver of the Bull. And it worked beautifully.

....It is an ugly unwind.

Ovechkin wrote:

Shorts have an indefinite time frame?

Might as well in this market. Buy puts or calls with expiration dates 3-4 weeks out and you'll see 100 bull rallies and 100 massive sell-offs at this rate

I think you're on to something there - the short term trade is how to play this market. The part that gives me a royal smack down is when i try to take long term positions, because just as soon as i do, the market starts going in the opposite direction and rather significantly, and i end up bailing for a small loss (again....).

Look at futures right now, they're way up. Looking forward to the usual massive mid day reversal, followed by the 3 pm re-reversal to end flat. agip, if the market tanks today just warn me before you sell so I can sell my short position for a long one

Make sure you monitor Trump Tweets throughout the day.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Make sure you monitor Trump Tweets throughout the day.

You joke but market makers will use any excuse to dump on retail even if it's a vague Trump tweet and considering I'm holding a position more leveraged to the downside than your boy John Hussman I will absolutely be watching for any Trump tweets of "Very great good excellent news, we maybe could have a deal possibly with China sometime maybe soon yes no we're not sure could happen TARIFF MAN!"

Ah, but even Trump Tweets won’t matter since the global economy has peaked this cycle. Even the central banks can’t organize a successful stick save. So Hussman and the shorts likely have the upper hand.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Ah, but even Trump Tweets won’t matter since the global economy has peaked this cycle. Even the central banks can’t organize a successful stick save. So Hussman and the shorts likely have the upper hand.

They're losing effectiveness but market makers have trained people to buy the dip really well. We're range bound between SPY 260 and 280 until a big catalyst. Rate hikes? War with China? Tune in for today's episode of Deal Or No Deal : Global Economic Doom Edition!

Racket wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Ah, but even Trump Tweets won’t matter since the global economy has peaked this cycle. Even the central banks can’t organize a successful stick save. So Hussman and the shorts likely have the upper hand.

They're losing effectiveness but market makers have trained people to buy the dip really well. We're range bound between SPY 260 and 280 until a big catalyst. Rate hikes? War with China? Tune in for today's episode of Deal Or No Deal : Global Economic Doom Edition!

Not that buying the dip is bad btw. I fully intend to buy the dip in 2020 or whenever things with China shake out (or if Trump gets removed from office which ain't happening)

Racket wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Ah, but even Trump Tweets won’t matter since the global economy has peaked this cycle. Even the central banks can’t organize a successful stick save. So Hussman and the shorts likely have the upper hand.

They're losing effectiveness but market makers have trained people to buy the dip really well. We're range bound between SPY 260 and 280 until a big catalyst. Rate hikes? War with China? Tune in for today's episode of Deal Or No Deal : Global Economic Doom Edition!

Perhaps. It appears to me the buy on the dip has been a bad trade, maybe even a dead trade. Anyway, if not over the short run, it is bound to be a dead trade soon. These traders jerking the market have never been through a Bear Market. Even they will get killed at some point. Algo writers and traders will be the first to be fired when this up-cycle ends.