Down goes the Dow

wondering wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

I gave you my answer.

Yes, but it doesn’t answer the question and that is my fault for not making it clear that I was referring specifically to ECRI. So what do you think?

I think ECRI does good research. Sure their work broke to recessionary levels in 2011 and it was a false signal. That period was weak with significant risks. At the time central banks flooded the market with QE to support the global economy. The same thing was done following Trump’s election. Spooked central bankers. The economy is very late cycle, so their work is more likely to be spot on this time.

KeIIy wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

I don’t have any issues with pensions. I will receive one at retirement from my current employer. What I do see on both the government and corporate side is the sponsors of pensions are offering a lump sum benefit bump in order to reduce their future liabilities. So clearly pension sponsors see the funding risk as retirees live longer. My company froze our pension benefit during the post financial crisis period, since I had a length of service and age hurdle I received an enhanced match to my 401k. Now even though I had no foresight or input in that decision, is that “solid financial planning”?

No. Based on what I’ve read here, I’d never associate those last three words with you.

Thanks, likewise “troll with the ever changing handle.”

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

wondering wrote:

Yes, but it doesn’t answer the question and that is my fault for not making it clear that I was referring specifically to ECRI. So what do you think?

I think ECRI does good research. Sure their work broke to recessionary levels in 2011 and it was a false signal. That period was weak with significant risks. At the time central banks flooded the market with QE to support the global economy. The same thing was done following Trump’s election. Spooked central bankers. The economy is very late cycle, so their work is more likely to be spot on this time.

Thanks

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Conundrummy wrote:

If you think government pensions are so bad, why did you try to discredit that poster yesterday because you believed he has one?

No, my point is a pension benefit is not “solid financial planning.”

It’s not a yes or no question. You tried to discredit a poster by saying he had a government pension. This was before anyone referred to such as part of “solid financial planning”. Have you changed your mind?

Conundrummy wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

No, my point is a pension benefit is not “solid financial planning.”

It’s not a yes or no question. You tried to discredit a poster by saying he had a government pension. This was before anyone referred to such as part of “solid financial planning”. Have you changed your mind?

No you are wrong. This is what I said: “I wonder how much of his great financial planning is a government pension.”

Do you troll clearly?

Check the headlines coming out of Argentina's G20 meeitng regarding Xi and Trump. Ay caramba, and that's good!

Vaguely good news coming out of G20 today so agip probably gonna see his Dow +2000 points prediction come true when every retail investor ever rushes to the market Monday morning. I'll be selling this news since a) they kicked the can down the road on tariffs and that's it and b) even if the market skyrockets then say hello to Mr Inflation and rate hikes bringing it all back down to reality.

Racket wrote:

Vaguely good news coming out of G20 today so agip probably gonna see his Dow +2000 points prediction come true when every retail investor ever rushes to the market Monday morning. I'll be selling this news since a) they kicked the can down the road on tariffs and that's it and b) even if the market skyrockets then say hello to Mr Inflation and rate hikes bringing it all back down to reality.

That is the correct interpretation in my view.

It would not surprise me to see a big gap up at open followed by selling. Yes, kicking the can down the road but tacit admissions on China's part about problems needing to be addressed, theft of intellectual property and trade imbalance. I think CHina must be really suffering, and with their slowing economy, they just don't need this, which is controllable through negotiations/promises.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Racket wrote:

Vaguely good news coming out of G20 today so agip probably gonna see his Dow +2000 points prediction come true when every retail investor ever rushes to the market Monday morning. I'll be selling this news since a) they kicked the can down the road on tariffs and that's it and b) even if the market skyrockets then say hello to Mr Inflation and rate hikes bringing it all back down to reality.

That is the correct interpretation in my view.

My bet is slowing on the interest rate hikes next year as global slowdown and slowing in housing become more in focus.

Cyclical stocks like CAT and NVDA did well based on slowing trade tensions. However, with FANGs still down significantly I don’t see a move to new highs on the S&P 500 until that trend reverses.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Conundrummy wrote:

It’s not a yes or no question. You tried to discredit a poster by saying he had a government pension. This was before anyone referred to such as part of “solid financial planning”. Have you changed your mind?

No you are wrong. This is what I said: “I wonder how much of his great financial planning is a government pension.”

Do you troll clearly?

Yes, that is what was said and what I was referring to. So why did you use such a phrase to try to discredit the poster?

seattle prattle wrote:

It would not surprise me to see a big gap up at open followed by selling. Yes, kicking the can down the road but tacit admissions on China's part about problems needing to be addressed, theft of intellectual property and trade imbalance. I think CHina must be really suffering, and with their slowing economy, they just don't need this, which is controllable through negotiations/promises.

They're definitely hurting and Xi needed a deal. They'll probably see a pretty good rally over the next week or so from this. As for the US, bull market back on for 2018 so I'll take some short term gains while retail piles their money back in the market. I'll be going on all cash into 2019 with plans to buy a house in the summer though

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Cyclical stocks like CAT and NVDA did well based on slowing trade tensions. However, with FANGs still down significantly I don’t see a move to new highs on the S&P 500 until that trend reverses.

True actually. Apple, Facebook, and Netflix are already in bear territory. It would take more than this news to pull them out I think.

Conundrummy wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

No you are wrong. This is what I said: “I wonder how much of his great financial planning is a government pension.”

Do you troll clearly?

Yes, that is what was said and what I was referring to. So why did you use such a phrase to try to discredit the poster?

I didn’t discredit anyone. If the poster is receiving a government pension I would not classify that

as “solid financial planning.” That is all.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Cyclical stocks like CAT and NVDA did well based on slowing trade tensions. However, with FANGs still down significantly I don’t see a move to new highs on the S&P 500 until that trend reverses.

Not sure how much was recovered in November but nearly half the components in the SP500 were in a bear market or correction in late October

Racket wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Cyclical stocks like CAT and NVDA did well based on slowing trade tensions. However, with FANGs still down significantly I don’t see a move to new highs on the S&P 500 until that trend reverses.

True actually. Apple, Facebook, and Netflix are already in bear territory. It would take more than this news to pull them out I think.

That is my view. The FANG stock prices were extended to begin with and with their market cap so large, well there you go. Momentum cuts both ways.

My take on FANG- Apple has significant exposure in China on several fronts and this news will help them, not to mention how they will benefit from tightening up intellectual property theft and forced leveraging thereof.

Amazon is already showing a strong rebound that i expect will continue. Netflix as well. Google not quite as sure about, but I wrote off Facebook a while back.

seattle prattle wrote:

My take on FANG- Apple has significant exposure in China on several fronts and this news will help them, not to mention how they will benefit from tightening up intellectual property theft and forced leveraging thereof.

Amazon is already showing a strong rebound that i expect will continue. Netflix as well. Google not quite as sure about, but I wrote off Facebook a while back.

I'm writing off Netflix. More and more content streamers are popping up and Disney is doing their whole Disney+ thing starting next year. Netflix had a good run while it lasted.

I don't think we're hitting ATH on this so I'm def still bearish long term. And like I said, a huge market bump might mean more rate increases. The tariff news should hopefully mean cheaper building material so possibly a better short term outlook on housing??? But I doubt it because the numbers for last month were pretty bad, I think new home sales dropped like 9%