Gwen Jorgensen Quitting Tri, Going Full Time Marathon.

Heck wrote:

Has Tim won an Olympic gold in some sport that we aren't aware of?

Why would that matter? Is there a history of athletes switching olympic sports and eventually winning gold in the marathon? Nice try though.

I've run many competitive marathons through the years, some in very hot weather, 95 and 98 degrees at the finish, and a 50km that was 99 degrees (Southern California). I have not done any triathlons. However I've biked plenty of times with groups and more often on my own, a few bike races, centuries, double centuries etc, and am not a swimmer but have swum plenty enough hard in pools for extended times to know that when it's hot out, you get hot in the pool. Okay I've never swam in open water. However as a marathoner, not a triathlete, I absolutely agree with Hot and Humid that how you cope with heat in triathlons is directly related to the marathon.

Gander wrote:

Raysism wrote:

I think some of us need to keep in mind that elite runners are not peaking for some two-bit 10 mile or 10K road race. Road races are off season workouts for the most part. If I pulled a list of everyone who finished in the top 10 of one of our twenty most important road races (non-major marathon), I don't think I'd recognize more than a handful of names.

But Gwen was focused and peaking for these 10 mile/10K races since she had nothing better to focus on? She sensed her chance to look "better than she is" by catching elite runners out of their peaking cycle?

Hogwash.

53 minutes for 10 miles on a hilly course is hauling a$$, pure and simple.

I didn't say that. I just don't really care who she beats in an off season road race. And not enough people run a 10 mile race for me to call this "hauling a$$". Hasay ran the same pace for a half, so that's what she'll be dealing with as she moves up in distance.

I haven't read all 15 pages of this thread, so apologies if some other runner/triathlete has offered a similar data point already.

I see that Gwen's times for the Olympic distance Tri are consistently in the 1:54-1:56 range. I'm a guy, but in my prime I put up similar times over that distance. In the same time period I ran ~2:37 at the NYC marathon off of tri training that included about 50 mpw of running. I tanked bad in the last few miles during that race. A couple years later I trained exclusively for the marathon for 9 months and ran well under 2:30, but not close to 2:25. Prior to taking up triathlons, I was a collegiate distance runner with 5K and 10K track PRs in the high 14min and low 30min range. Also probably worth noting that I could not touch Gwen's run times off of the bike despite having faster pure running PRs.

Based on the above, my take is that making the US team is an ambitious, but realistic goal goal for Gwen. Shooting to win Olympic gold is a bit crazy, but its the kind of crazy that the people who win Olympic gold medal are.

Raysism wrote:

Gander wrote:

But Gwen was focused and peaking for these 10 mile/10K races since she had nothing better to focus on? She sensed her chance to look "better than she is" by catching elite runners out of their peaking cycle?

Hogwash.

53 minutes for 10 miles on a hilly course is hauling a$$, pure and simple.

I didn't say that. I just don't really care who she beats in an off season road race. And not enough people run a 10 mile race for me to call this "hauling a$$". Hasay ran the same pace for a half, so that's what she'll be dealing with as she moves up in distance.

You certainly implied it. The fact is that she only gave up 24 seconds to lifelong running star Jordan over ten miles and 12 seconds to Aliphine Tuliamuk, a sub-1:10 half marathoner, and beat several sub-2:30/1:11 women. This was for $7000, not chump change on the pro circuit.

Women like Sara Hall, Natosha Rogers and Stephanie Bruce don't fly across the country to get beat out of a paycheck by a triathlete. Gwen is legit.

This is very interesting -- definitely helps me understand the conversion. I think you're a better runner than she is (you're a guy, your debut marathon off of 50 MPW, etc.), but probably not a much better runner. The fact that she's faster than you off of the bike is probably a sign that... she's a really good triathlete? Based on your experience, I'd give her at least a decent shot to break 2:30 in her first try, but probably barely under.

Among good triathletes, run times off the bike are thought to be more of a function of cycling fitness than running fitness. The really strong cyclists could run the 10K legs within a minute of their standalone 10K times. Normally their standalone 10K times weren't great (lots of 33 mid guys), but they could replicated those times in a tri (high 33s & low 34s). The guys - like me - who were stronger runners, but weaker cyclists would see a much bigger gap. I was still putting up 31 high 10Ks in road races, but would be in the high 33s or low 34s during tris. I realize that generally 10Ks in tris don't meet the certification standards of USATF, but at the World Champs and Olympic levels you can be reasonably sure that they are decently accurately measured.

Gwen Hype Train Has Left The Station, Next Stop Mars wrote:

Heck wrote:

Has Tim won an Olympic gold in some sport that we aren't aware of?

Why would that matter? Is there a history of athletes switching olympic sports and eventually winning gold in the marathon? Nice try though.

The fact that she is an olympic gold medalist triathlete doesn't really matter much at all; outside of telling us she knows how to train and the mind you need to be that good.

Of course there isn't a history of athletes switching Olympic sports and eventually winning gold. I doubt there is even much of a history of athletes switching Olympic sports.

What does matter are her running times. Which right now are 53:11 on a lumpy 10M course, and a 2:41 at NYC. Lots of reason to think making the US team is a realistic goal. No case for the Olympics. Not even worth thinking about that until we see if she is good at the marathon, and if she can improve. Odds are HUGELY against her.

LM wrote:

What does matter are her running times. Which right now are 53:11 on a lumpy 10M course, and a 2:41 at NYC. Lots of reason to think making the US team is a realistic goal. No case for the Olympics. Not even worth thinking about that until we see if she is good at the marathon, and if she can improve. Odds are HUGELY against her.

I'll agree with that. Too many unknowns right now. You can't say more than she has a shot at making the team. As of now she has a good 10k and 10M times, and an okay marathon time like countless runners before her. She hasn't proven her body can handle marathon training.

Getting Old wrote:

Among good triathletes, run times off the bike are thought to be more of a function of cycling fitness than running fitness. The really strong cyclists could run the 10K legs within a minute of their standalone 10K times. Normally their standalone 10K times weren't great (lots of 33 mid guys), but they could replicated those times in a tri (high 33s & low 34s). The guys - like me - who were stronger runners, but weaker cyclists would see a much bigger gap. I was still putting up 31 high 10Ks in road races, but would be in the high 33s or low 34s during tris. I realize that generally 10Ks in tris don't meet the certification standards of USATF, but at the World Champs and Olympic levels you can be reasonably sure that they are decently accurately measured.

So better cyclists can do it easier on the bike in draft legal races and save their legs for the run?

Are triathletes as injury prone as runners? A common thread linking G-Jorgensen and J-Hasay is that both are/were reasonably strong swimmers. Does anybody know of studies comparing aerobic capacities of runners vs swimmers?

I don't think it is impossible to make the team if she can stay health and if she makes the team, she will place top 10 . The cynic in me predicts that a doper will most likely steal Olympic gold.

Do you think Gwen had any idea the controversy/speculation/rationalizing her announcement would create in the running community? I'd be curious to what her reaction is to it.

This thread is a fantastic example of why running will never be a mainstream sport.

Why?

no YOURE hilarious wrote:

This thread is a fantastic example of why running will never be a mainstream sport.

Guys, I liked the piece on the front page discussing this. I too think the talent pool is absolutely immense right now and beating Amy Cragg, Jordan Hasay, Molly Huddle, Desi, and Emily Sisson is going to be a tall order. Heck, Allie Kieffer may factor as well.

One person I see missing from the discussion is Sally Kipyego. Sally is now an American citizen so I assume she will also be competing for a spot on the US team? Obviously Kipyego is a massive talent and we shouldn't forget about her in these discussions.

I'm a fan of all her accomplishments and will cheer for her in any race she tries but she won't break 2:37 by enough to be Olympic medal material.

She'll definitely OTQ A-standard, I think we all agree on that.

However switching to marathon is going to mean much better prize money at road races vs triathlon and that is pretty obvious to me why she is switching.

Saying it is for the Olympics is much more noble than saying it is for the $$$, the articles about her would be far more judgmental if she was honest about that.

If she does make it to Olympics, even without a medal, race directors are going to be paying for her to show up at their events.

Is Gwen Jorgenson update?

Also curious. Spring marathon coming up? Seems like it would be good as it'd be around 6 months after her announcement.