Official Idaho HS XC 2023 Thread

In 2018 a 16:14.2 at Tiger Grizz was speed rated at 184.2 (Nick Russell as a senior, who lacctic currently puts at #36 in NCAA). In 2023 it gets about a 177.3, if my math is right. A 7 pt drop?

In 2020 a 16:26.1 at Cardinal Classic got a 179.29. In 2023 it would get about a 173.4. A 6 pt drop?

I know course conditions change year to year, but that’s a pretty harsh downgrade of the Idaho races this year.

I’m not really one to say I understand the math behind it all, speed ratings are pretty awesome and the workload put in is amazing, but NW teams doing well when they travel to California this weekend seems really important to raise the benchmark comparisons for Idaho runners this year.

Thanks for pointing this out! These Idaho teams are running very well and still under the radar somehow, hopeful it will show in the coming weeks/months.

I like Idaho being the underdogs. A little state unity if you want to call it that.

Even the incredibly good CDA team isn't getting much attention, let alone Boise and Rocky.

It'll be fun when some Idaho teams are able to make the podium at Firman/NXR

Carbon plated shoes? That’s a big difference in how fast courses run. Idaho has also gotten a ton deeper, so times that were uncommon on some courses are now becoming common place.

If 16:14 was 184.2, the course record would be worth ~214, right? That seems right that times would get down graded as more people run faster on it. Do you think that Tuft and Jensen really ran 172 pt races with 16:51s? It also says that speed ratings are uncertain due to inconsistency with past results in 2018 and uncertain in 2023. Tiger Grizz is a weird course that runs varying rates of slow depending on who you are. The faster speed ratings seem consistent with what people have run this year so far.

Also, Lacctic is currently using times from last track season for rankings. The creator himself says rankings aren’t accurate until we get to the big invites. Any rankings are just guesswork at this point.

Someone’s speed ratings on a HS cross country course from 5 years ago compared to collegiate track times run in California at big meets are not exactly apples to apples.

Correction to my above post- faster runners have consistent speed ratings from race to race this year. The slower overall speed ratings seem more consistent.

Bryson Blaser’s mark would be 12 points better than his Jimmy mark with the old scoring. Wil Ihmels would be 7 points better than his Caldwell mark with the old scoring. Faith Johnson’s would be 10 points better. Chloe Pollock would be 6 points better. If everybody is 7-10 points better than their season bests using the old scoring, then it stands to reason that the old scoring would be about 7 points too high.

The reference to a multi time state champion now collegiate runner was just to point out the performance at the time was by a legit fast runner.

Totally get that. I do appreciate that the speed ratings seem to take into account season bests over a field and make adjustments. I do also think that as more programs improve, it helps shed a light on Idaho meets and the data will get more accurate.

Regarding teams going to California this week, I think the only team that has raced an Idaho school from anywhere is Eagle. When it’s one team, I’d be slow to make any judgement. It’s way too small of a sample size to account for differences in training.

I believe the course record is around 15:47 so more like a 193 (27s is 9pts). I would guess that is reasonable for where Elijah Armstrong was at in HS.

I think that the point that large chunks of the field weren't suddenly 7 points better than they were last week is a fair one. Relative to other speed ratings that kids have run, they seem accurate. I don't think it's possible to judge a course from across the country but you can start to gauge performances relative to each other.

Speed ratings just aren't going to be accurate this time of year, anyways. Firman is the first somewhat accurate week because enough schools have raced different schools that the data starts to get clear.

Eagle is the only school racing any sort of big meet this week. If they do a lot better at Woodbridge than they did at Caldwell, 100% guarantee there is an overreaction.

Of course, but the more interesting aspect may be how the Oregon schools do there and how that impacts the later big PNW meets Idaho schools go to, and NXR.

What schools are going to have multiple data points against Idaho schools the rest of the year that are in California this weekend?

It's pretty clear that the NXN selection committee will just ignore anything that happens this early in the season if you don't see that team again the rest of the year.

Franklin will see Boise High at Nike Twilight, West Salem will be at Firman, and then at Nike Portland vs. Mt. View, Capital, Eagle, and BK, and finally against CDA at Hole in the Wall. Mead will see CDA at The Battle for the 509 meet.

Crater doesn't see any of those schools. Trabuco Hills, Herriman, Dana Hills are all going to be at Firman after Woodbridge. Those three will all be helpful, but it's limited data. It's unlikely that any Idaho school that will race Herriman this year will beat them IMO, and it doesn't seem like much stock gets put into how the California schools race in Idaho unless they race well.

Really, West Salem racing CDA, Eagle, Mt. View, Capital and BK is probably the biggest help as far as NW schools outside of Idaho goes as they'll see Idaho schools at different points. For boosting the resume of Idaho schools, probably the most important teams, in order of importance, at Woodbridge will be: Eagle, West Salem, Franklin, Mead, and then Herriman, Trabuco Hills, and Dana Hills all down low. Herriman could be the most important team if an Idaho team has a very strong showing against them at Firman. West Salem and Eagle having good days at Woodbridge would be huge for Idaho schools, especially if Idaho schools beat up on West Salem and Eagle continues to be way back from Rocky, CDA, Centennial, and Boise.

Eagle is going to be crucial. If they can place top 2-3 at the Blue race at Woodbridge, and then they get beat up by Boise, CDA, and Rocky, that looks good for Idaho as a whole.

Unfortunately West Salem doesn't look to be anything special this year, so if Idaho schools want to get a boost from the NXN committee, BK, Eagle, and CDA all need to get wins against them and then they will have to finish decent at NXR/State.

Looks like Ringert is in the sweeps section. They need 2 guys to run really good in order to have a shot of that, then. I guess if you throw Ringert’s placement into the blue race you could project a finish for them but it makes it harder to use that as a selling point.

Why take an average team to Woodbridge, though? Seems like a big commitment for not a ton of payoff.

I think it would be a mistake for our top Idaho teams to go to Woodbridge. California is known for their speed and their track times, Californians also specialize at speed courses. Our idaho teams specialize in more difficult courses. It wasn't a surprise to me that California's top team Newbury Park went 1,2,3,6 at runninglane nationals (a fast 5k course similar to woodbridge) in 2021.

That probably had much more to do with the fact that Newbury Park had 4 all time great high school cross runners at the same time. One guy ran 3:39 in the 1500 and 8:33 in the 3200, another ran 4:00 and 8:39, another ran 4:01 and 13:43, and the last one ran 1:48/4:01/8:48, all the spring following that cross season. Any one of those guys would not be shocking if they won a HS national championship.

I think that kind of reasoning is weak. Utah and Colorado teams also run difficult courses but they go to big, fast races like Woodbridge. Honestly, it's not even just going to a fast course. It's going to any big meets. When was the last time that Rocky went to a truly big meet that wasn't in Idaho? Boise is doing one this year, and went to the Desert Twilight in 2018 and won it over Niwot. MV has gone to Griak and Portland when they've had top teams. They also went to a national cross country showcase in 2018 and took 3rd. CDA is going to a couple this year. There's only one top program in Idaho that hasn't shown a willingness to travel and that's Rocky Mountain.