Knead 2 no wrote:
So is this a good market, or a bad market?
It really doesn't matter. He would never advocate not having an allocation in the market.
Knead 2 no wrote:
So is this a good market, or a bad market?
It really doesn't matter. He would never advocate not having an allocation in the market.
Sally V wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
Back from my run and had a chance to check out the context from that quote. Wow, what a great debate - exactly what we have been arguing here, only better. Check it out.
http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=8237309Some excellent points made in there. And it's even better when we have the advantage of hindsight to see who's been right (so far...)
Wow, great thread. But again Igy takes it on the chin. He seems to get backed into a corner quite often and responds with insults instead of insights. Too bad.
What ever happened to Investment Advisor? I didn’t always agree with him, but at least he was polite and rational.
SallyV,
Like most who post here you base your financial decisions on your market experience post 11/9/2016. You do so as if it is ancient history while ignoring historically reliable valuation measures.
That is your choice.
In regards to the supposedly well deserved insults why don’t you re-start your childish version of the “me too movement”: ##ignore Igy.
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Sally V wrote:
Wow, great thread. But again Igy takes it on the chin. He seems to get backed into a corner quite often and responds with insults instead of insights. Too bad.
What ever happened to Investment Advisor? I didn’t always agree with him, but at least he was polite and rational.
SallyV,
Like most who post here you base your financial decisions on your market experience post 11/9/2016. You do so as if it is ancient history while ignoring historically reliable valuation measures.
That is your choice.
In regards to the supposedly well deserved insults why don’t you re-start your childish version of the “me too movement”: ##ignore Igy.
Igy
You have no idea what I base my financial decisions on. Your fantasies about me simply serve to support your fledgling self-image. You can’t stand that someone else might be smarter than you, so you throw mud at the wall and hope it sticks. Well I’m not playing your little game.
As for my “childish” view of the respect that women deserve, I see you have not changed your stripes. Now get back to work so that you can afford to continue bragging that you keep your wife at home. The
[quote]Sally V wrote:
"Your fantasies about me simply serve to support your fledgling self-image."
You want to explain that one? Fledgling is either a young bird -- not your meaning given the context -- or any new participant in some activity. It is a noun, not an adjective. Your command of basic English is non-existent.
" You can’t stand that someone else might be smarter than you, so you throw mud at the wall and hope it sticks."
Textbook projection. You continuously fling pathetic insults on this thread every day and then accuse someone else of doing the same. I will not opine as to whether you do this out of a feeling of intellectual inferiority. I will leave that activity to armchair psychologists like yourself.
Just shut-up wrote:
Textbook projection. You continuously fling pathetic insults on this thread every day and then accuse someone else of doing the same. I will not opine as to whether you do this out of a feeling of intellectual inferiority. I will leave that activity to armchair psychologists like yourself.
You just took what she said about Igy and used the same on her. Could you not come up with anything original?
Two of eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through Monday, September 10, 2018. The top performer this year is India's BSE SENSEX with a gain of 12.15%. In second is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 7.61%. In third is France's CAC 40 with a loss of 0.81%. Coming in last is Shanghai's SSE with a loss of 19.28%.
Desperate people do desperate things wrote:
Just shut-up wrote:
Textbook projection. You continuously fling pathetic insults on this thread every day and then accuse someone else of doing the same. I will not opine as to whether you do this out of a feeling of intellectual inferiority. I will leave that activity to armchair psychologists like yourself.
You just took what she said about Igy and used the same on her. Could you not come up with anything original?
You apparently can't read as I clearly pointed out that I would not make an assumption as to why you behave in the manner that you do and did not do so.
Also, why no attempt to defend your incorrect use of the word fledgling? Think I would not notice?
U Kant reed wrote:
Desperate people do desperate things wrote:
You just took what she said about Igy and used the same on her. Could you not come up with anything original?
You apparently can't read as I clearly pointed out that I would not make an assumption as to why you behave in the manner that you do and did not do so.
Also, why no attempt to defend your incorrect use of the word fledgling? Think I would not notice?
Until you stop making grammatical errors, you should stop criticizing how others write.
U Kant reed wrote:
Desperate people do desperate things wrote:
You just took what she said about Igy and used the same on her. Could you not come up with anything original?
You apparently can't read as I clearly pointed out that I would not make an assumption as to why you behave in the manner that you do and did not do so.
Also, why no attempt to defend your incorrect use of the word fledgling? Think I would not notice?
I’d say you’re the one who can’t read. You obviously have me confused with another poster.
Desperate people do desperate things wrote:
U Kant reed wrote:
You apparently can't read as I clearly pointed out that I would not make an assumption as to why you behave in the manner that you do and did not do so.
Also, why no attempt to defend your incorrect use of the word fledgling? Think I would not notice?
I’d say you’re the one who can’t read. You obviously have me confused with another poster.
Yea right.
Hey, don't let me get between you and the voices in your head.
Stater of the Obvious wrote:
U Kant reed wrote:
You apparently can't read as I clearly pointed out that I would not make an assumption as to why you behave in the manner that you do and did not do so.
Also, why no attempt to defend your incorrect use of the word fledgling? Think I would not notice?
Until you stop making grammatical errors, you should stop criticizing how others write.
Please show me the grammatical errors you think you see in my post.
You can't do it. Called your gutless bluff.
Call your bluff wrote:
Stater of the Obvious wrote:
Until you stop making grammatical errors, you should stop criticizing how others write.
Please show me the grammatical errors you think you see in my post.
You can't do it. Called your gutless bluff.
I wasn’t replying to you.
Stater of the obvious wrote:
Call your bluff wrote:
Please show me the grammatical errors you think you see in my post.
You can't do it. Called your gutless bluff.
I wasn’t replying to you.
Actually you were, Einstein.
Let's hear all about those grammatical errors.
What's interesting, several were touting the Dow goes the Dow message early in this thread. Over time they all realized they were wrong (No shame in that) and went away. Unfortunately, one imbecile remains using multiple handles to make it look like more. Sad
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
agip wrote:
prediction reviews continued:
In February 2017 Igy and I had a discussion about which duration bonds might do the best. I didn't really make a prediction, but pointed out that longer term bonds had done well over the past year or so, despite rising rates. Igy seems to have thought that short term bonds were the way to go.
The results show that longer term bonds were decisively better than short term bonds this year. By a large margin.
Using BSV, BIV and BLV as Vanguard proxies for short, inter and long bonds return YTD.
Short: +1.15%
Inter: +3.70%
Long: +9.95%!
Igy's pick, DBLSX, returned 2.55%
agip,
If you read my comments I had/have no particular view on interest rates. Over the course of the year I have traded TLT for a handful of clients that fit that profile. An investment in BLV assumes that the future will be like the last ten months. However, those that purchased BLV in July of 2016 have lost approximately -6% NAV but have collected the interest, for a still loss of about -2%.
BLV has an effective maturity of 24.20 years and an effective duration of of 15.33 years. A long term interest rate move of +1% would lead to a likely NAV loss of -15%. As Rick Santelli said today (paraphrasing here) “everyone in the world is buying the long end of the curve because Bunds are at 0.32%.”
Clearly Central Bank policies have driven CAPE 10 to cycle highs and interest rates to historical lows. Investors have incorrectly judged that stock and bond valuation metrics do not matter over the long term. Fed Funds rate has moved from 0-0.25% to today’s 1.25-1.50%. The Fed is shrinking their balance sheet at a rate of $10 Billion a month, to move to $50 Billion a month by next October. The cost of capital just went up as several banks have moved their base lending rate from 4.25% to 4.5%.
I prefer to judge risk with a metric, and pay little attention to what is working now. Everyone is in the “what’s working now” trade, which has moved to a new level of insanity with BitCoin. Of course Janet told us that everything is OK. So no worries. Oh that’s right, Ben and Janet said the same thing right before the housing collapse.
Igy
Let’s review year to date numbers with the Fed likely to raise interest rates two more times the year.
BLV the big loser NAV -4.17%
BIV NAV -1.39%
BSV NAV +0.09%
On a price basis far worse:
BLV -7.362%
BIV -3.738%
BSV -1.277%
Igy’s pick DBLSX total return +0.97%.
And you wonder why people are buying stocks. It’s not rocket science.
Rocket Scientist wrote:
And you wonder why people are buying stocks. It’s not rocket science.
Investors that ignored price and duration in bonds are starting to feel the pinch. Likewise stock investors that ignore price and valuation are likely to experience the same squeeze but to a greater degree. T-Bills are likely to outperform stocks over thenext ten years.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
agip,
If you read my comments I had/have no particular view on interest rates. Over the course of the year I have traded TLT for a handful of clients that fit that profile. An investment in BLV assumes that the future will be like the last ten months. However, those that purchased BLV in July of 2016 have lost approximately -6% NAV but have collected the interest, for a still loss of about -2%.
BLV has an effective maturity of 24.20 years and an effective duration of of 15.33 years. A long term interest rate move of +1% would lead to a likely NAV loss of -15%. As Rick Santelli said today (paraphrasing here) “everyone in the world is buying the long end of the curve because Bunds are at 0.32%.”
Clearly Central Bank policies have driven CAPE 10 to cycle highs and interest rates to historical lows. Investors have incorrectly judged that stock and bond valuation metrics do not matter over the long term. Fed Funds rate has moved from 0-0.25% to today’s 1.25-1.50%. The Fed is shrinking their balance sheet at a rate of $10 Billion a month, to move to $50 Billion a month by next October. The cost of capital just went up as several banks have moved their base lending rate from 4.25% to 4.5%.
I prefer to judge risk with a metric, and pay little attention to what is working now. Everyone is in the “what’s working now” trade, which has moved to a new level of insanity with BitCoin. Of course Janet told us that everything is OK. So no worries. Oh that’s right, Ben and Janet said the same thing right before the housing collapse.
Igy
Let’s review year to date numbers with the Fed likely to raise interest rates two more times the year.
BLV the big loser NAV -4.17%
BIV NAV -1.39%
BSV NAV +0.09%
On a price basis far worse:
BLV -7.362%
BIV -3.738%
BSV -1.277%
Igy’s pick DBLSX total return +0.97%.
Yup - bonds have been pretty bad for the past year or so
I don't see any logic to looking at just price tho - the whole point of a bond is the coupon.
My biggest bond position is TIPS, which are down just 0.36% year to date.
And I hedge interest rate risk with BKLN and FLTR and HYS, all of which are up this year
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
T-Bills are likely to outperform stocks over thenext ten years.
Likely? That’s crazy talk.
https://www.dictionary.com/browse/fledglingK5 wrote:
You want to explain that one? Fledgling is either a young bird -- not your meaning given the context -- or any new participant in some activity. It is a noun, not an adjective. Your command of basic English is non-existent.