J. Hardy wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Not, because it doesn’t exist.
It’s still there. Look a few posts ahead of the one I’m replying to. Click the link and make sure you’re on the first data tab. You should also read the notes at the bottom of that same page. It’s quite clear that earnings and EPS are separate, though related, data points
I found it no prob. Tnx.
There is no doubt that,
1. EPS is not exactly the same as “earnings, and
2. The FED is one of the central banks.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Ed,
If you read my statement I highlighted “central bank policies.” In that regard interest rate policies are cross border and the rates in Europe and Japan inflence ours at home. Besides the Fed may have raised interest rates but still maintains a balance sheet of $4.2 Trillion of QE. Here is a recent quote from Stephen Roach, former Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia.
“The Fed’s preference for glacial normalization both in the early 2000s and now keeps monetary policy on emergency settings long after the emergency has passed. Doing so raises the distinct possibility that the Fed will lack the ammunition it will need to counter the inevitable next recession.”
I suggest you might want to look at the interplay between global interest rates and global quantitative easing. It is not only the rate itself but the liquidity that raises asset prices beyond normal valuation. Leads to unproductive use of resources (stock buybacks, unnecessary commercial real estate) and resulting slower economic growth.
Igy
Interesting analysis, though ultimately a misguided interpretation. Keep in mind that we are a decade past these initial QE forays and the Fed long ago ended that type of stimulus. Yet the economy roars along with exceptional growth, despite your claim otherwise. The good times may not last much longer, but then again they may. Enjoy.
Narcissist detector wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Question then in the first person, what type of personality defect leads to your bone for me?
Why do you talk so much about yourself?
Try reading that again. He is talking about you.
Three of eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through Friday, August 6, 2018. The top performer this year is India's BSE SENSEX with a gain of 11.47%. In second is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 6.61%. In third is France's CAC 40 with a gain of 3.10%. Coming in last is Shanghai's SSE with a loss of 18.20%.
Horrible color, but that is beside the point. Incorrect criticism on your part since QE went thru 2015 and until recently reinvested proceeds from maturing bonds. To be clear the Federal Reserve balance sheet has only been reduced by about $200 Billion still standing at a whopping $4.4 Trillion.
Porsche wrote:
Four of eight indicators on our world watch list have posted gains through Friday, August 6, 2018. The top performer this year is India's BSE SENSEX with a gain of 11.47%. In second is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 6.61%. In third is France's CAC 40 with a gain of 3.10%, fourth is the one year CD with a guaranteed not to fall 2.4%. Coming in last is Shanghai's SSE with a loss of 18.20%.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2018/08/06/world-markets-update?&bt_ee=Vs+lht7DQH2Y44NI8s4oUEExz+EMk91pekaPlcGFl2WiwFJvGlCJTP1fwqYokFXu&bt_ts=1533639144884
Porsche Cayman wrote:
Porsche wrote:
Four of eight indicators on our world watch list have posted gains through Friday, August 6, 2018. The top performer this year is India's BSE SENSEX with a gain of 11.47%. In second is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 6.61%. In third is France's CAC 40 with a gain of 3.10%, fourth is the one year CD with a guaranteed not to fall 2.4%. Coming in last is Shanghai's SSE with a loss of 18.20%.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2018/08/06/world-markets-update?&bt_ee=Vs+lht7DQH2Y44NI8s4oUEExz+EMk91pekaPlcGFl2WiwFJvGlCJTP1fwqYokFXu&bt_ts=1533639144884
Again your math skills fIl you.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Horrible color, but that is beside the point. Incorrect criticism on your part since QE went thru 2015 and until recently reinvested proceeds from maturing bonds. To be clear the Federal Reserve balance sheet has only been reduced by about $200 Billion still standing at a whopping $4.4 Trillion.
I find it interesting that you dislike my criticism, then support that with essentially what I wrote. Whatever. Without a doubt, the economy is in a good place thanks to wonderful earnings and solid growth.
Sure. That is why real estate and auto sales are beginning to struggle. How come the Treasury is forced to issue record amounts of debt?
Why, because every thing you reference was set in motion years ago. Your rear view mirror is quite prescient.
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Your rear view mirror is quite prescient.
Igy
You may want to look up ‘prescient’.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Sure. That is why real estate and auto sales are beginning to struggle. How come the Treasury is forced to issue record amounts of debt?
Why, because every thing you reference was set in motion years ago. Your rear view mirror is quite prescient.
Igy
Why don't you post something that relates to the OP.
How about an analysis of someone who ignored the prediction of the OP and started investing heavily in an all stock mutual fund on the date of the OP. Stopped putting money into that fund at the end of 2017. And cashed out of that fund today.
How do you think that turned out for them?
I think the relevant question is do you believe that there is a significant risk for the equity markets losing 50% of their current value with the next ten year equity return flat or negative? If so, your question would matter little to those that absorb the losses.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
I think the relevant question is do you believe that there is a significant risk for the equity markets losing 50% of their current value with the next ten year equity return flat or negative? If so, your question would matter little to those that absorb the losses.
Typical non-answer.
purple martin wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
I think the relevant question is do you believe that there is a significant risk for the equity markets losing 50% of their current value with the next ten year equity return flat or negative? If so, your question would matter little to those that absorb the losses.
Typical non-answer.
...and your poorly executed attempt to twist thwarted....
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Sure. That is why real estate and auto sales are beginning to struggle. How come the Treasury is forced to issue record amounts of debt?
Why, because every thing you reference was set in motion years ago. Your rear view mirror is quite prescient.
Igy
You’ll never see every sector humming along at the same time. The fact that you could only name two that “are beginning to struggle” serves to reinforce that the economy is in a very good place.
BTW, the Fed hasn’t issued any debt recently. Why would they?
Kelly Greene wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Sure. That is why real estate and auto sales are beginning to struggle. How come the Treasury is forced to issue record amounts of debt?
Why, because every thing you reference was set in motion years ago. Your rear view mirror is quite prescient.
Igy
You’ll never see every sector humming along at the same time. The fact that you could only name two that “are beginning to struggle” serves to reinforce that the economy is in a very good place.
BTW, the Fed hasn’t issued any debt recently. Why would they?
BTW the Fed doesn’t issue debt, that is a function of the Treasury Department and they have issued record amounts of debt. Get back to work and learn yourself up.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
BTW, the Fed hasn’t issued any debt recently. Why would they?
BTW the Fed doesn’t issue debt[/quote]
That’s what she said.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
purple martin wrote:
Typical non-answer.
...and your poorly executed attempt to twist thwarted....
No twisting needed on a non-answer. The old answering a question with a question.
The question was given the correct response. What would you expect from such an nonsense question? You really need to think before you post.