MIAC Track 2017

Sounds like you started off the predictions part of this thread! Time to bust them out people.

Who do you have taking each event? With everyone becoming much more interested in the 400m due to Bethel, we can even add sprinting predictions in there.

400m

Carl Klamm - Bethel

David Supinski - Concordia

Patrick Klamm - Bethel

This one seemed pretty clear cut. How often do brothers get all-conference honors in the same event? Crazy.

800m:

Donson Cook-Gallardo - Carleton

Kyle Fredrickson - Gustavus

Sean Bjork - St. Olaf

*Evan Hatton is my dark horse for this event. Could snag a 2nd place finish if the pace is hot as a strength guy. And with Donson, it might be a quick pace.

I wanted to put Sean higher, but he just ran a tough mile this past weekend. And while I'm sure he will recover physically, mentally he might be a little tired for conference. Kyle only did the 400m/4x4 at olaf so he might be fresher.

1k:

Donson Cook-Gallardo - Carleton

Sean Bjork - St. Olaf

Matthew Lillehaugen - Concordia

Donson is Donson, so will will more than likely win. Sean is a good stregnth runner and can grind out a race, so he holds off Lillehaugen in the last 60m of the race.

Mile:

Joe Coffey - St. Olaf

Jacob Eggers - St. Olaf

St. Olaf runner

If Donson and Bugler don't run it (which I don't think they will), an Ole will sweep up that 3rd position. A lot of discussion on this page of Coffey, Eggers, and Bjork sweeping it, but they could potentially sit out Bjork and Eggers from this event and still sweep it. I would throw in a St. Thomas runner in 3rd, but I think they stack their DMR. Joe Coffey wins this because he is one of the best milers in the country and hasn't lost to a non-Olaf MIAC runner in the mile in a long, long time.

3k:

Ryan Bugler - St. John's

Jovan Newsum - St. Mary's

Keith Ketola - St. Olaf

Bugler's PR is 10 seconds faster than anyone else's in the field and he looks to be in better shape this year. Barring anything crazy happening, I think he secures his first individual MIAC title. Since most runners in this race will be running off of tired legs, I doubt the pace will be pushed from the start, thus resulting in a kickers race. Suitable for Bugler, Ketola, and Newsum who all have decent footspeed (4:15, 4:18, 4:23 mile PRs, respectively).

5k:

Jovan Newsum - St. Mary's

Keith Ketola - St. Olaf

Calvin Lehn - St. Olaf

There are very few people this year who will be able to run with Jovan. Hopefully he can put it all together in his 5k this coming weekend. Ketola and Lehn will work together to grind out those last two spots.

DMR

St. John's

St. Thomas

Bethel

St. Thomas has been rather week in the distance events these past few years, I think they stack their DMR in hopes to get some solid points to contribute to the rest of their team's indoor success. Bethel is deep enough where they can stack a decent team. I would say Olaf, too, but they are all in the individual events, like last year. St. John's doesn't have a lot of players in this, but I think they can stay close enough to let Bugler do his thing. He does have the most current MIAC relay titles now that Feichtinger is gone.

*One quick change

5k:

Jovan Newsum - St. Mary's

Evan Jones - Gustavus

Ketih Ketola - St. Olaf

Evan has been running really well the past few weeks. He stays hot going in to the 5k.

Not gonna lie, Evan Jones with his blonde hair was about as slow as old people having sex. Jones with normal looking hair looks like he means business and wants to qualify for conference.

I would be more inclined to think jones could do something at conference if he spent less time trying to get attention (see blonde hair evan) and posting about himself on this website.

Careful guys, he might take his spite from all of the LetsRun hate and channel it into conference the same way that Bjork did with that mile this past weekend.

Spite is fuel wrote:

Careful guys, he might take his spite from all of the LetsRun hate and channel it into conference the same way that Bjork did with that mile this past weekend.

Then all 600 competitors should be enraged right now. We're a real event and demand to be taken seriously by EVERY predictions post.

600:

Supinski

Krause

Mueller

Frederickson

Whalstedt

800:

Cook-Gallardo

Hatton

Lillehaugen

Frederickson

Krogman

1000:

Cook-Gallardo

Coffey

Lillehaugen

Bjork

Burback

Mile:

Coffey

Bjork

Bugler

Eggers

Some Tommie sneaks in here

3000:

Bugler

Ketola

Jones

Hinwood

Newsum, shot from day 1 (see 5000)

5000:

Newsum

ADAM BRANDT

Knobbe outta nowhere

Ketola

Lehn

This I base on nothing. These are my guesses as to who will go out too hard, who will race to win and fade, who will race to hawk those faders with meters to go, who will wait too long in the longer races, etc. Then TFRRS to fill out the questionable spots at the end, because real talk I don't know all the names I posted and I'm full of it.

You put Fredrickson at 4 in the 600 but somehow Knobbe gets third in the 5k? Have you watched Gustavus run at all this year or are you just Evan Jones whispering sweet nothings into Knobbe's ear?

Seriously, Frederickson beat Krause head to head a while back and is the clear favorite in the 6. The only one challenging him in any way will be Supinski. Him placing that low in the 600 is more unlikely than Knobbe placing as high as you have him in 5k (AKA zero chance whatsoever). And you opened that post saying you're a 600 runner?

Yes I believe (and I can be completely wrong here) that's Krause is better than he has run this year, because he is and he's proven it before. Besides that, Frederickson ran only 51.23 in an open 400 this weekend. Supinski is a SUB-50 400 runner.

Knobbe on the other hand, is wishful thinking. He seems to have been struggling for a while but then he pulls it together brilliantly, like at conference XC this year.

What about Karl Watchers kid? He dusted Allen Burback for the Tommies top spot...and he almost caught Hatton.

Burback is clutch. Ran his best 1k at indoor and his best 800 in the outdoor final last year.

Here are mine wrote:

400m

Carl Klamm - Bethel

David Supinski - Concordia

Patrick Klamm - Bethel

This is an interesting prediction, but you left out one huge name - Manni Egbujor. It's a big "if," but if Manni is entered in the 4 you could easily see him win the whole thing. He certainly has the stuff to beat pat klamm and supinski, and can definitely give Carl Klamm a run for his money. He won the 400 indoors and outdoors last year, and may be looking to defend those titles. Moreover, Manni has also already qualified for nationals in the 60, you may see him entered 2/4 to let teammate Undre Smith-Brewer get the win in the 60.

Interesting to note that Barinedum Kordah, who finished second at indoor MIACs last year in the 400 hasnt even run one this season. I would've included him in the 400 top 4 had he had an eligible time. He is a long jump freak though, so focusing short sprints and LJ was probably his training plan this season.

FAKE NEWS. Barinedum has run a 400.

https://www.tfrrs.org/athletes/4666252/Augsburg/Barinedum_Kordah.html

Raceberry doesn't have the results from the Frank Sevigne Meet at the University of Nebraska. He ran 49.71 on a banked track--converts to 50.51.

For better results just use the TFRRS conference list.

https://www.tfrrs.org/lists/1978.html#53

Last year I noticed that Sean Bjork's seed in the 800 was his time from Frank Sevigne where he ran 1:54.57 which converts to 1:56.12 on a flat track. Ultimately it didn't matter because he wasn't the last guy in the fast section. The same goes for for the 400 where the top 12 seeds run in lanes 3, 4, 5, and 6 and are randomly assigned. Similarly, if Jerry entered the Mile he would be in the fast heat whether he used the 4:08.90 or the 300m track conversion of 4:12.09. Nevertheless, it seems like a fairly obvious omission in the Track & Field rule book which includes a scenario for a 300m to 200m conversion on a 160m track.

http://static.psbin.com/9/i/zzpduvduat1rsg/2017_MIAC_Track_and_Field_Book_010917.pdf

I was considering putting Manni here, actually. But he only ran that one 400m at Saint John's in an otherwise average 51.xx. I honestly think he could break in to the top 3, but in all honesty, I don't think he will beat Carl Klamm. I'm biased because I am a big fan of his and love watching him run, but biased aside, that man can really close a 400m. So much strength. Manni is a super talent as far as the MIAC is concerned, but that can only help so much the last 30 meters of the race.

As for the 600m miss earlier, that is my bad. Totally forgot as I was going through each category. Here is what I've got:

Carl Klamm - Bethel

David Supinski - Concordia

Kyle Fredrickson - Gustavus

Isaac Krause - Hamline

The Klamm bias shows once more, but I'm not ashamed. He is the top returner from last year's MIAC Indoor meet, and he is the strongest 400m runner by far. And if you try to make the argument that the 600m is more tailored to 800m runners, might I remind you that he went 1:55 as a freshman indoors last year, and I think we can all agree that he is in better shape this year.

As for putting Supinski over Fredrickson, my reasoning is that Kyle has basically gone to the front for his 600m runs this year and held everyone off. So, in short, in order for him to do well, he needs to be in the front. He isn't a gear shifter kind of guy that can make moves in a race. I don't think he will get off the line aggressively enough to do that. I say Supinski does and holds off Fredrickson.

Finally, I put Krause 4th. He is a big talent as a 1:52 guy outdoors, but I think the Hamlin coaches train him through indoors with a larger focus on outdoors. He is obviously talented enough to run relatively fast times indoors, but they don't put all of their eggs into indoor conference. If he were to peak for indoors, I'd move him up to first or second.

These are the quality posts that I enjoy, thanks pegs. It is curious that they don't include conversions for that scenario on a 200m track.

Following this, I would like to include additional performances from this past weekend that were overlooked due to the fast mile and 3k over at Olaf.

First comes from both the Saint Mary's guys.

Jovan Newsum and Austin O'Hare both went 4:23.11 and 4:23.90, respectively. That is pretty phenominal range for Jovan following his 15:04 5k earlier. For O'Hare, that is more around where many of us thought he would be this season with his steeple success.

Another Saint Mary's performance that draws the eye was Brandon Krogman's. Threw down a 1:55.62 800m this past weekend. He is getting hot at the right time.

What could top this? How about a 1:55.05 from Matthew Lillehaugen of Concordia. He has been running really well all season and I think a lot of us pegged him to be up there in both the 1k and 800m at conference this year.

The 800m is very, very deep this year.

pegs til I die wrote:

FAKE NEWS. Barinedum has run a 400.

Thanks for pointing this out, I had no idea! I probably rely too much on raceberry but it just feels like home...

It will be interesting to see where those augie guys end up entered then. I've always found Barinedum very fun to watch/race, so I hope to see him in the 4. I would also love to see Manni in it because Manni v Carl Klamm is unquestionably the best sprints matchup in the MIAC this year.

Manni v Carl Klamm is unquestionably the best sprints matchup in the MIAC this year.

besides Adam Brandt vs anyone else. He could win the 60 if he wanted to, that guys the GOAT.

Here's my shot at predictions with some thought behind it.

400

1.Carl Klamm

2. David Supinski

3. Barinedum Kordah

The first two are a lock, crazy young talent. Third is a little more open and could be any number of guys but Kordah has the wheels if he wants it. He hasnt run the 4 much this year but going off outdoor PR he is probably the fastest guy fighting for third.

600

1. Kyle Fredrickson

2. David Supinski

3. Carl Klamm

This one is tough but I think these three are on another level verses the rest of the conference. DCG could be there too but will probably opt for other races. Klamm obviously has the most speed and should be able to be the fastest but it appears as if he is focusing on being nationally competitive in the 400 this year. He ran a 600 opener in 1:22 low which is good but he hasnt ran a 6 since or any 800s like he did last year. He could easily win this event if he focused on it but Im thinking he will place very highly at nationals in the 400 and it will cost him slightly here. I agree with the poster above that Fredrickson needs to lead from the gun if he wants to be in it. Supinski has a lot more upside than Fredrickson and very likely could beat him but Fredrickson has been consistent and its hard to bet against the guy with the two fastest times in the conference in the past few years. These three are pretty much a crapshoot in my opinion.

800

1. DCG

2. Isaac Krause

3. Kyle Fredrickson

4. Brandon Krogman

5. Evan Hatton

After a slow start this is probably the deepest event in conference. I think this well be the race to watch at conference. The guy that gets 6th or 7th in this race is probably top 3 any other year. Outside of DCG the field is pretty much open and could be any order from 2-7. I think Krause has a lot more potentially and experience than his 800 times so far indicate. Fredrickson had a cooking solo opener but is inexperienced. Bjork is bjork and definitely has the talent but he may not even run the race? I think they may have a little too much faith in his speed and it might show but he could be top 3? Hatton has the strength for a fast time but doesnt always seem to have his best races at conference. Should be a really fun race.

1000

1. DCG

2. Coffey

3. Lillehaugen

Coffey verse DCG is a wash here, if they race 10 times i see it going 5-5. I think Coffey has the potential to run a faster time trial but DCG has proven himself tactically in fast races. DCG and Coffey are probably the two most consistent national level talents the MIAC has had in years and this race should be awesome. Hatton is also a threat here but I think Lillehaugen is being overlooked. Look for a tommie to be in the fight for 3-5 as well as they have a couple guys with a lot of potential.

Mile

1. Coffey

2. DCG

3. Bjork

4. Eggers

5. Knowlton

Not a lot to comment on here other than that wow the MIAC is strong in this event. Olaf will have a few guys make nationals in this event and I think DCG still has a big jump in performance coming here. He ran the equivalent of a 4:12 but after his 1:52 last week I think he can be in the 4:07-4:09 range right now. I dont think Coffey can be touched but DCG is close. Eggers and Bjork looked great last week at their home meet as well but not sure if Bjork will opt for this race or the 8. I think the argument could be made either way for him to go 8 or mile but whichever he chooses hell get points in. I think Lillehaugen, Haugen, and Knowlton can do very well here but Olaf is just too deep in this event.

3k

1. Ryan Bugler

2. Jovan Newsum

3/4. Evan Jones/Keith Ketola

5. Alex Berhe

Bugler is the clear favorite here. His combination of speed (see his 4:15) and cross country performances make him very scary in this event. I think hell run away with it and place highly at nationals. Even with the 5k the day before I think Jovan is still strong enough to hold off the field. I think 3-5 will be tight between these guys. Ketola also has a lot more speed than I would have given him credit for in the past. His quick mile this past weekend is definitely a positive sign for what he can do at the end of this race. Jones shown he has the finishing speed as of late. If he or Ketola are close with two laps to go they could easily beat Newsum but I think the pace will be a little to hot for them to be there.

5k

1. Jovan Newsum

2. Keith Ketola

3. Calvin Lehn

4. Adam Brandt

5. Paul Timm

Oddly enough distance events seem to not be the highlight this year. The days of Hornor taking it out at near mile pace and hanging on for dear life as the Oles chase him down are over. I think its pretty agreed upon that this race is Jovans to lose and that the oles will always be strong in this event. Lehn may be a wash and be middle of the pack but he has a lot of talent and could be in this race going for the win even. He hasnt been where he has been in the past for cross country but I could see him pulling it together here.

Trevor smith is another guy that could surprise people and be in the mix here.

vegas over under wrote:

DCG and Coffey are probably the two most consistent national level talents the MIAC has had in years and this race should be awesome.

Except for, you know, those three guys St Olaf just recently had who won national titles.