agapius mackwamba wrote:
BAck in the day, the trials standard was set at the 100th best performance from the year 2 years before the games. In 1980, it was Bill Gavaghan (apologies if misspelled) who ran 2:21:54.
Why not use this idea again?
I think that worked well on the men's side in 1980 and 1984, in part because there was a spread of only about ten to twelve minutes between the fastest runners in the world and the 100th fastest American. On the women's side, the lack of depth meant that the Olympic trials qualifying standard was over 2:52, about 30 minutes slower than what the fastest women were running, and the loose standard created a flood of qualifiers (like 51-year-old Marion Irvine) to come in. The women's standard -- at least, the B standard -- has remained very soft ever since. People have different ideas about whether that's good or bad; personally, I think it unnecessarily degrades the achievement and is ultimately counterproductive to the goal of producing more competitive American runners.
I've also wondered whether that would be the way to go on the men's side. There are a number of advantages. Disadvantages, from my perspective, include the lack of predictability in qualifying standard (I know that I was rather discouraged in 1983 when the 2:19:04 standard was announced) and the possibility that the 100th best American time in 2010 will be very slow (say, 2:25), and you end up with several hundred runners in the trials (as happened on the women's side in 1984).
If the primary goal is to increase the level of competition among American runners, then I believe (contrary to some of the views expressed on this thread) that tightening the standard is the right move. People really do step up their game when higher standards are in place, even though they may have believed that they were previously pushing themselves to the limit. Although there are many runners who have unrealistic expectations about how much they can improve, there are many others who underestimate their potential. When I was 17, I ran a mile in 5:22, and I couldn't imagine running any faster. Fifteen years later, I could string together 26 miles at a considerably faster pace. There were many times along the way when I thought that I had reached my "genetic" capacity, and I was wrong every single time.