xc04 wrote:
I know. I did not cite bekele as an example.
But to go back to 1980 3k record was 7.32 and 5k recrod was 13.06(7.51 at 3k)- difference of 19 seconds.
Todays 3k world record is 7.20 and 5k world record is 12.37 (7.33 at 3k) - difference of 13 seconds.
At the elite level people are getting so much stronger that they are able to come through far closer to their 3k max than was thought possible just 25 years ago.
I'm sure its the same with the 10k. ie todays WR is 5k WR x 2 + 60 secs. 25 years ago was 5k WR x 2 + 80 secs. Even taking into account percentages of WR it is still decreasing
Actually this is wrong. Double 12:37 and add 60 and you get 26:14, way ahead of the 10k WR, run by the same person in the same year.
Double Rono's 13:08.4 and add 60 and you get 27:17. 5 seonds ahead of the 27:22 that he ran, but no different than the result for Bekele. You can't use 13:00.42 and 27:22 because they were 4 years apart. Use 13:00.42 from '82 and 27:13.81 from '84 ... that is a MUCH more apt comparison.
That formula doesn't hold up across the board, and it should be evident why. You are adding a fixed amount (60 seconds) to doubled times that are tremendously far apart. It wouldn't work to compare 13:54 from the Zatopek era (30 years before 13:00-flat and Moorcroft's 13:00.42 either.
2 x 10k time + 60 secs is just a rough predictor, that's all it is.