Down goes the Dow

Thanks. The best I’d seen was 2.15%. Things are looking up.

A year ago I bought a one year at 1.4%, so really moving up. The banks are rolling over at much lower rates. The best rates are through investment firms or credit union specials.

“After years of very low volatility and strongly negative correlations, last quarter looked a lot more like the average conditions investors have experienced over the last 150 years. In that world, historically normal risk premia make a lot of sense, and all of our collective investment goals rely on those risk premia remaining similar to historical levels. The trouble is that markets today, particularly US markets, aren’t priced for that world, so if current conditions persist, I believe valuations are likely to fall.

We can either have an easy world, and get paid little for investing, or a hard world where we get paid more. Easy may be more fun in the short run, but give me harder and more profitable any day of the week.”

Ben Inker, GMO

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

purple martin wrote:

Sorry! I think I woke him.

How come you don’t use the “mango jerry” handle any more? Did you tire of my mango salsa jokes? Why not “yellow belly sap sucker”? Now that would be appropriate!

I decided to join your fun of using multiple handles. I just haven't caught up with you on the number of them yet.

purple martin wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

How come you don’t use the “mango jerry” handle any more? Did you tire of my mango salsa jokes? Why not “yellow belly sap sucker”? Now that would be appropriate!

I decided to join your fun of using multiple handles. I just haven't caught up with you on the number of them yet.

Sorry Mango. I thought he made the name up. I found where you did post on here a couple of years ago. Not trying to take credit for your post, or handle.

For true market believers (yellow belly sap suckers):

https://mobile.twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/997234265652899840?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

the graph depicted, does not support the major premise: "Overvaluation... has a predictable impact on long-term outcomes." It shows a cherry-picked segment of a larger market trends. It shows the short term rather than the long-term. Post a graph of the whole S&P rise and you deduce a very different conclusion.

Frankly, it's so slanted, it calls into questions the real motive.

seattle prattle wrote:

the graph depicted, does not support the major premise: "Overvaluation... has a predictable impact on long-term outcomes." It shows a cherry-picked segment of a larger market trends. It shows the short term rather than the long-term. Post a graph of the whole S&P rise and you deduce a very different conclusion.

Frankly, it's so slanted, it calls into questions the real motive.

The 5% S&P 500 return since 2000 is a far cry from history. Color it the way you wish.

Marvelous economy for the Haves:

“For instance, in Seattle's King County, the annual household survival budget for a family of four (including one infant and one preschooler) in 2016 was nearly $85,000. This would require an hourly wage of $42.46. But in Washington State, only 14% of jobs pay more than $40 an hour.

Seattle's City Council just passed a controversial tax on big businesses to help alleviate the city's growing homelessness and affordable housing problems.”

CNN report.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

seattle prattle wrote:

the graph depicted, does not support the major premise: "Overvaluation... has a predictable impact on long-term outcomes." It shows a cherry-picked segment of a larger market trends. It shows the short term rather than the long-term. Post a graph of the whole S&P rise and you deduce a very different conclusion.

Frankly, it's so slanted, it calls into questions the real motive.

The 5% S&P 500 return since 2000 is a far cry from history. Color it the way you wish.

How about since 2008?

How about 2028? Isn’t that the point.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Marvelous economy for the Haves:

“For instance, in Seattle's King County, the annual household survival budget for a family of four (including one infant and one preschooler) in 2016 was nearly $85,000. This would require an hourly wage of $42.46. But in Washington State, only 14% of jobs pay more than $40 an hour.

Seattle's City Council just passed a controversial tax on big businesses to help alleviate the city's growing homelessness and affordable housing problems.”

CNN report.

What the hell does that have to do with anything? Really.

Let me guess, now your new slant is that not only should the markets tank because the irrefutable laws of the market according to Hussman are that it (the markets) with inevitably return to historical market valuations, but add to that that the markets should ethically also do so out of fairness to the masses?

Oh, please!

The name of this thread is Down goes the Dow, not Down goes the median net worth of the Middle Class.

How this relates to the market..... maybe i just missed that Hussman tweet.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Marvelous economy for the Haves:

“For instance, in Seattle's King County, the annual household survival budget for a family of four (including one infant and one preschooler) in 2016 was nearly $85,000. This would require an hourly wage of $42.46. But in Washington State, only 14% of jobs pay more than $40 an hour.

Seattle's City Council just passed a controversial tax on big businesses to help alleviate the city's growing homelessness and affordable housing problems.”

CNN report.

Or 2 people earning an average of $21.23 an hour .

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

How about 2028? Isn’t that the point.

And the message is? 2018 - 2028 PROCEED WITH EXTREME CAUTION!

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

How about 2028? Isn’t that the point.

So why are you so focused on cherry picking data from the past?

Seattle,

Point is pretty clear to me the marvelous stock and real asset gains are built on $4.2 Trillion of Fed QE, which will be reduced at a $50 Billion rate this fall. All the while corporations buy back their stocks to create the illusion on EPS growth. The other half of the working class that own very little stocks can’t keep up with rising housing costs. It is pretty clear that during this cycle wages have remain depressed.

I have made my comments clear multiple times about Hussman but you ignore the facts.

Interpret my comments any way you wish.

Time alone will prove which view is correct.

Igy

mellon wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

How about 2028? Isn’t that the point.

And the message is? 2018 - 2028 PROCEED WITH EXTREME CAUTION!

Quineux wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

How about 2028? Isn’t that the point.

So why are you so focused on cherry picking data from the past?

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Seattle,

Point is pretty clear to me the marvelous stock and real asset gains are built on $4.2 Trillion of Fed QE, which will be reduced at a $50 Billion rate this fall. All the while corporations buy back their stocks to create the illusion on EPS growth. The other half of the working class that own very little stocks can’t keep up with rising housing costs. It is pretty clear that during this cycle wages have remain depressed.

I have made my comments clear multiple times about Hussman but you ignore the facts.

Interpret my comments any way you wish.

Time alone will prove which view is correct.

Igy

1. Stock buy backs increase EPS. It’s not an illusion.

2. Wage growth currently exceeds 3%.

3. Hussman is a terrible investor.