The problem with Jeb was that he gave no reason to vote for him. No one cared about him and he was boring. Had zero passion.
Conversely, Liz cheney has the fire of a thousand suns inside her, all burning hot and directed at Donald J Trump in a laser. She will get all the anti-spankers and she will do some bad image damage to trump in the primaries and debates. She is fearless and good at poking at trump. No one else will be doing that. She will have an entire lane all to herself.
plus, she is a woman and being insulted and hectored by a middle aged not very attractive woman will drive trump insane. Getting him to lose his temper on camera will be a good goal and will likely happen.
but no, she will not win the primary. Trump owns the GOP. Nice boss you got there.
Yeah and all that passion will get her ~1% of the primary vote. Nobody will even notice she's running.
Republicans who don't like Trump already have like 5 other options. They want someone who is a good presidential candidate, which she is not.
The media will like nothing more than a firefight between cheney and trump. Their high level of attention might even pierce the right wing media bubble and get people to understand why she is running.
This is a good piece - suggests that because of polarization and the ways we use polls to declare our ‘team’ rather than how we vote…makes the generic ballot less predictive.
plus, there are so few purple seats, it’s unlikely the Rs can take too many of them back. So the Rs will probably win the house, but dreams of a giant red wave are probably false because there just aren’t very many seats up for grabs that Rs *can*win from the Ds.
House is currently 220 Dems, 210 Republicans and 5 vacant seats. I agree that gerrymandering has made it so that there are very few competitive districts left. But there are definitely more than 10. Some pollsters are estimating that there are about 30-35 toss up races, 20-25 races that lean D or R but are still competitive and another 20-25 that are strong D or R but have an outside chance of flipping. Safe seats are about 160 for Dems and 190 for Republicans. So, while it is true that a 50-60 seat flip like 1994 and 2010 are unlikely, there is enough room for Republicans to fairly easily take back control of the house.
What is a bit more interesting is the Senate. Dems may actually be able to pick up a few seats if they don't blow it. Fetterman will more than likely beat Dr. Oz (and is emerging as a darkhorse 2024 candidate if Biden gets sent to the old folks home). Ron Johnson is vulnerable in WI. There could also be upsets in Missouri with Eric Greitens being too much of a scumbag even for Trumpers.
The real question is whether the Dems can do anything to get voters to turn out after getting soft balls on issues ranging from mass shootings to abortion that should get Dem voters to the polls. As it stands, the current answer is a resounding no with Biden's team and congressional Dem leadership opting for spamming supporters with fundraising texts over actually going hard at legislative and executive action to get voters motivated.
Yeah and all that passion will get her ~1% of the primary vote. Nobody will even notice she's running.
Republicans who don't like Trump already have like 5 other options. They want someone who is a good presidential candidate, which she is not.
The media will like nothing more than a firefight between cheney and trump. Their high level of attention might even pierce the right wing media bubble and get people to understand why she is running.
That's assuming she even runs.
Try to imagine why, two years from now, any Republican primary voter would vote for her over Desantis, Pence, or even Haley. They won't. In fact, even the most rabid Trump-hater in the GOP would be motivated to vote for someone who can actually beat Trump, i.e. Desantis.
Yes it is. Lithium is 31 out of 94. There is plenty of it out there. It's not rare at all.
LFP batteries do not use cobalt. They are inexpensive and they are perfect for stationary storage.
And as I said, we will soon see sodium-based batteries that don't need lithium either. Many chemistries will work.
There have been plenty of studies on this subject. We can get completely off of fossil fuels for power generation in just 10 years if that's what we decide to do.
What does 31 out of 94 mean? 31st most common element? That doesn't tell us whether it is abundant relative to demand.
Back of the envelope math says that with 14 million tons there is enough for the equivalent of 200 million Tesla batteries. Even if that's off by a factor of 10 it's not enough for storage capacity for the US power grid, let alone the world, using current technology.
Yes, 31st most common naturally occurring element.
I agree, a better way to look at this would be to know how much lithium we really need and how much can be extracted and refined.
But that is all unknown.
Do you actually know how much storage is needed? What are your assumptions?
Do you actually know how much lithium can be extracted and refined? What are your assumptions?
You should definitely not assume current technology because billions is being poured into both battery technology and lithium extraction and refinement technology. This is a very new industry and it is growing very fast.
Also, do not make assumptions about how the grid will evolve. For instance, China is building high capacity DC power lines that run east to west. This will obviate the need for so much storage as you can just deploy more solar and ship the power to where it is needed at different times of day. There are countless other solutions.
Lots to think about.
But I do know one thing for sure. People who say it can't be done never accomplish anything.
oil is down to $96/barrel from $122 just a few weeks ago.
stock market might...just....be....finding some footing. But who knows on that one.
Generic ballot has tightened up recently
Odds of a D senate have risen, but still just 50/50
overturning roe will help Ds in many races.
My hope is Liz Cheney declares for president....the mag'a vote and $ might then be split between desantis and spanky while Liz gets all the actual conservatives plus a ton of indies. And a lot of the money that would have gone to trump otherwise would go to her.
She'll probably lose the prez primary but having someone with her toughness telling the mag'a world exactly what trump is will be very helpful. And she's just better at never-trumping than any of the Ds out there. Tough as nails, able to talk to the right wing, etc.
There you go again with your Baghdading, agip. The Senate is flipping to red in every scenario, it's just a matter of how much. I predict a 52-48 GOP at minimum.
The Dobbs decision hasn't helped the dems at all, no poll has shown any significant swing to the dem side. Instead it has backfired for you.
Post-Dobbs (June 25th-28th), Democrat support declines nationally, per left-wing YouGov Polling
Republicans 45% Democrats 40%
Due to the dem oversampling, the GOP lead is closer to 7%
Lastly, Cheney has no shot in 2024. She is a RINO loser and has no future as a major player in the GOP.
What does 31 out of 94 mean? 31st most common element? That doesn't tell us whether it is abundant relative to demand.
Back of the envelope math says that with 14 million tons there is enough for the equivalent of 200 million Tesla batteries. Even if that's off by a factor of 10 it's not enough for storage capacity for the US power grid, let alone the world, using current technology.
Yes, 31st most common naturally occurring element.
I agree, a better way to look at this would be to know how much lithium we really need and how much can be extracted and refined.
But that is all unknown.
Do you actually know how much storage is needed? What are your assumptions?
Do you actually know how much lithium can be extracted and refined? What are your assumptions?
You should definitely not assume current technology because billions is being poured into both battery technology and lithium extraction and refinement technology. This is a very new industry and it is growing very fast.
Also, do not make assumptions about how the grid will evolve. For instance, China is building high capacity DC power lines that run east to west. This will obviate the need for so much storage as you can just deploy more solar and ship the power to where it is needed at different times of day. There are countless other solutions.
Lots to think about.
But I do know one thing for sure. People who say it can't be done never accomplish anything.
I'm not saying it can't be done. Battery technology will certainly improve, and breakthroughs we can't even conceive of right now will eventually happen. I'm just saying we can't plan on it happening in a short 10-year timeframe, criticize anyone who is skeptical, and get rid of the alternatives (oil/gas/nuclear) long before it happens. European countries are already paying a price for being overly optimistic on renewable technologies, now choosing between going backwards (coal) or rationing energy this winter. And finally, there is a ton of bureaucratic inertia in the US that has nothing to do with opposition to environmentalism. Personally I will be mildly impressed if we are actually mining lithium in southern California in under 10 years the way things move.
What does 31 out of 94 mean? 31st most common element? That doesn't tell us whether it is abundant relative to demand.
Back of the envelope math says that with 14 million tons there is enough for the equivalent of 200 million Tesla batteries. Even if that's off by a factor of 10 it's not enough for storage capacity for the US power grid, let alone the world, using current technology.
Loosely following this conversation.
Question for you - Where does the 14 million tons figure come from?
oil is down to $96/barrel from $122 just a few weeks ago.
stock market might...just....be....finding some footing. But who knows on that one.
Generic ballot has tightened up recently
Odds of a D senate have risen, but still just 50/50
overturning roe will help Ds in many races.
My hope is Liz Cheney declares for president....the mag'a vote and $ might then be split between desantis and spanky while Liz gets all the actual conservatives plus a ton of indies. And a lot of the money that would have gone to trump otherwise would go to her.
She'll probably lose the prez primary but having someone with her toughness telling the mag'a world exactly what trump is will be very helpful. And she's just better at never-trumping than any of the Ds out there. Tough as nails, able to talk to the right wing, etc.
There you go again with your Baghdading, agip. The Senate is flipping to red in every scenario, it's just a matter of how much. I predict a 52-48 GOP at minimum.
The Dobbs decision hasn't helped the dems at all, no poll has shown any significant swing to the dem side. Instead it has backfired for you.
Post-Dobbs (June 25th-28th), Democrat support declines nationally, per left-wing YouGov Polling
Republicans 45% Democrats 40%
Due to the dem oversampling, the GOP lead is closer to 7%
Lastly, Cheney has no shot in 2024. She is a RINO loser and has no future as a major player in the GOP.
Fivethirtyeight (people who do this professionally) have the Dems with a 10% chance to keep the house and a 50% chance to keep the senate.
Yes, 31st most common naturally occurring element.
I agree, a better way to look at this would be to know how much lithium we really need and how much can be extracted and refined.
But that is all unknown.
Do you actually know how much storage is needed? What are your assumptions?
Do you actually know how much lithium can be extracted and refined? What are your assumptions?
You should definitely not assume current technology because billions is being poured into both battery technology and lithium extraction and refinement technology. This is a very new industry and it is growing very fast.
Also, do not make assumptions about how the grid will evolve. For instance, China is building high capacity DC power lines that run east to west. This will obviate the need for so much storage as you can just deploy more solar and ship the power to where it is needed at different times of day. There are countless other solutions.
Lots to think about.
But I do know one thing for sure. People who say it can't be done never accomplish anything.
I'm not saying it can't be done. Battery technology will certainly improve, and breakthroughs we can't even conceive of right now will eventually happen. I'm just saying we can't plan on it happening in a short 10-year timeframe, criticize anyone who is skeptical, and get rid of the alternatives (oil/gas/nuclear) long before it happens. European countries are already paying a price for being overly optimistic on renewable technologies, now choosing between going backwards (coal) or rationing energy this winter. And finally, there is a ton of bureaucratic inertia in the US that has nothing to do with opposition to environmentalism. Personally I will be mildly impressed if we are actually mining lithium in southern California in under 10 years the way things move.
You may be right about California and bureaucratic inertia.
And I don't advocate getting rid of nuclear prematurely.
The thing is, we need to plan on getting off fossil fuels as fast as possible. The longer we wait, the worse the climate will get and then we will really pay the price.
The problem with Europe is the war, not renewables. Europe chose to rely on Russian gas. They are only now taking serious steps to de-carbonize.
Right now we see a pretty clear path to getting rid of fossil fuels forever. And the nation(s) who do it first will reap the rewards of super-cheap energy that doesn't rely on oil cartels.
I'm betting on Europe to go green before the rest and have a stronger economy because of it.
What does 31 out of 94 mean? 31st most common element? That doesn't tell us whether it is abundant relative to demand.
Back of the envelope math says that with 14 million tons there is enough for the equivalent of 200 million Tesla batteries. Even if that's off by a factor of 10 it's not enough for storage capacity for the US power grid, let alone the world, using current technology.
Loosely following this conversation.
Question for you - Where does the 14 million tons figure come from?
Google. And I did say "even if that's off by a factor of 10" because it could be a low estimate.
But if we're talking about a 10 year timeframe, it doesn't even matter, because we won't have mined and refined that much. Last year, about 100k tons of lithium were mined. Even if that increases by a factor of 10 in 10 years, we still won't have mined even 10 million tons worldwide, let alone refined it, manufactured batteries, deployed to grid storage, etc.
And apparently there's a lot more lithium in seawater, but like sodium batteries, it probably won't go from hypothetical to mass filtering and production and refining in under 10 years. Finally, I don't know how to estimate US storage capacity needs but I'm guessing it's a LOT more than 200M tesla batteries.
Don’t you find it odd that Blacks are in 90% of the print and electronic media yet represent only 12% of the population? The wokeness is beyond rational. That and fat models in swimsuits really takes me out of it.
HUNTER Biden filmed himself smoking drugs and drinking hard seltzer in a float tank while on a detox – paid for after a $75k handout from his dad Joe. Exclusive footage obtained by The Sun sh…
This is a good piece - suggests that because of polarization and the ways we use polls to declare our ‘team’ rather than how we vote…makes the generic ballot less predictive.
plus, there are so few purple seats, it’s unlikely the Rs can take too many of them back. So the Rs will probably win the house, but dreams of a giant red wave are probably false because there just aren’t very many seats up for grabs that Rs *can*win from the Ds.
House is currently 220 Dems, 210 Republicans and 5 vacant seats. I agree that gerrymandering has made it so that there are very few competitive districts left. But there are definitely more than 10. Some pollsters are estimating that there are about 30-35 toss up races, 20-25 races that lean D or R but are still competitive and another 20-25 that are strong D or R but have an outside chance of flipping. Safe seats are about 160 for Dems and 190 for Republicans. So, while it is true that a 50-60 seat flip like 1994 and 2010 are unlikely, there is enough room for Republicans to fairly easily take back control of the house.
What is a bit more interesting is the Senate. Dems may actually be able to pick up a few seats if they don't blow it. Fetterman will more than likely beat Dr. Oz (and is emerging as a darkhorse 2024 candidate if Biden gets sent to the old folks home). Ron Johnson is vulnerable in WI. There could also be upsets in Missouri with Eric Greitens being too much of a scumbag even for Trumpers.
The real question is whether the Dems can do anything to get voters to turn out after getting soft balls on issues ranging from mass shootings to abortion that should get Dem voters to the polls. As it stands, the current answer is a resounding no with Biden's team and congressional Dem leadership opting for spamming supporters with fundraising texts over actually going hard at legislative and executive action to get voters motivated.
