Kobbs Hessler wrote:
This "invasion" is a huge nothing burger. Ukraine "invaded" a part of Russia that is basically empty and certainly is of no strategic value. It is a PR campaign to say, "hey, we aren't losing, we're over her invading Russia!" And it's an attempt to divert Russian soldiers and assets to a meaningless engagement.
Watch how the Ukrainian "invasion" force doesn't keep pressing north. That will be the tell.
Russia has regularly shelled settlements in Sumy Oblast since the beginning of the war. Of late, Russia has been launching glide bomb attacks on targets in Sumy Oblast. These attacks take place with impunity because Russia is able to launch them from their side of the border. These attacks have always been intended to keep Ukraine from being able to fortify that part of the border so that Russia will one day be able to try and split Kyiv off from Kharkiv by driving UA out of Sumy Oblast. That is almost a prerequisite to any serious effort by RU to retake Kharkiv.
Sudzha is the site of a major natural gas terminal. Ukraine has been allowing gas to flow through that pipeline to Europe based on a five year agreement that was entered into before the war. But that agreement is in its last year. Ukraine and the EU are not going to renew the agreement. So, Russia will have to reroute its pipeline to get it to Hungary and Slovakia, the two countries that will probably be willing to continue to buy gas from Russia. And Ukraine could decide to shut the pipeline and blow it up on the Russian side so that there would be no more pipeline.
But the best part of the incursion, if Ukraine is able to hold it, is that it puts UA closer to key RU assets in the city of Kursk. Kursk has a military base and the airport has been dedicated to RU's air force since the beginning of the war. And there are three highways just south of Kursk that are very important for RU's logistics. If UA is able to push all the way to the outskirts of the city of Kursk and control those highways, it will be a huge problem for RU.
Finally, even if all of the above is not true, RU is having to scramble thousands of soldiers from the front lines to try and repel this incursion. That is a huge help for UA forces that have been seeing very difficult battles along the front lines near Kharkhiv and in the western parts of Donetsk oblast.





