I see the race as a toss-up, and you make some fairly reasonable points, but because it seems as though for you every single sign favors Harris, consider me at least mildly skeptical.
I see those results for over 65 in PA, too, but I don’t know if anyone has enough data to really be able to infer meaning from that. There’s not a really good benchmark for extrapolating info from these numbers (so much has changed in terms of Dem and Rep messaging about early and mail voting in the last several years), and you can imagine the kinds of habits and tendencies of over-65 voters in urban and rural areas. Among rural over-65, getting to the polls (even factoring in driving distance on average) and the prospect of waiting is less a deterrent than it is for urban. I don’t know how much that over-65 in-person election day will be Republican, but it should be substantially in their favor (I see a lot of premature and overconfident proclamations from Democrats and Republicans online about what the polling numbers and early vote numbers tell them, and I don’t have a lot of confidence).
I will agree that Harris is much more likely to have a substantially better ground game. We’ll find out if that will be enough for her in PA (especially), MI, WI, NV, etc. I don’t see her getting GA or NC.