Down goes the Dow

wondering wrote:

Rilly? wrote:

You really need an explanation as to why it is a number doubling is more of a change then a number halving?

But you're talking about two different numbers. So, yes please.

The market loses 50% in one period and then subsequently gains 70%. The market believers are convinced they are ahead, after all, they lost 50% but then gained 70%. But in fact, they are down 15%.

Now was that so hard to understand?

Okay Dude wrote:

wondering wrote:

But you're talking about two different numbers. So, yes please.

The market loses 50% in one period and then subsequently gains 70%. The market believers are convinced they are ahead, after all, they lost 50% but then gained 70%. But in fact, they are down 15%.

Now was that so hard to understand?

They actually might be ahead depending on when they got in. No one who loses 50% and then gains 70% would think they are ahead.

Four of eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through Monday, March 12, 2018. The top performer this year is Hong Kong's Hang Seng with a gain of 5.60%. In second is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 4.09%. Shanghai's SSE Composite is in third with a minor gain of 0.59%.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2018/03/13/world-markets-update

?

?? Porche Cayman

The Federal Reserve of Atlanta has had to walk back, in a big way, its headline-making forecast that the first quarter would feature eye-popping economic growth.

Where back in late January the central bank district was calling for a 5.4 percent GDP gain, it released a reading Wednesday for its widely followed GDPNow tracker that slashed that projection all the way down to 1.9 percent.

[quote]Purple Martin wrote:

Mike Wilson, U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, is calling this a “secular” bull market — or one that lasts decades, not years, similar to the long upturn that began in the early 1980s and didn’t peter out until 2000 (despite some brief, yet sizable drops along the way, such as the 1987 market crash).

The next bear market, or 20% drop, won’t be like the mega-bears of 2007-09 or the dot-com crash in 2000, Wilson says. Instead, the market’s major trend will be up for years to come

This guy makes a lot of sense.

Purple Martin wrote:

[quote]Purple Martin wrote:

Mike Wilson, U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, is calling this a “secular” bull market — or one that lasts decades, not years, similar to the long upturn that began in the early 1980s and didn’t peter out until 2000 (despite some brief, yet sizable drops along the way, such as the 1987 market crash).

The next bear market, or 20% drop, won’t be like the mega-bears of 2007-09 or the dot-com crash in 2000, Wilson says. Instead, the market’s major trend will be up for years to come

This guy makes a lot of sense.

What's his name?

Man with Head in Sand?

Or maybe man who profits from other people buying equities through him?

His name wrote:

Purple Martin wrote:

Mike Wilson, U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, is calling this a “secular” bull market — or one that lasts decades, not years, similar to the long upturn that began in the early 1980s and didn’t peter out until 2000 (despite some brief, yet sizable drops along the way, such as the 1987 market crash).

The next bear market, or 20% drop, won’t be like the mega-bears of 2007-09 or the dot-com crash in 2000, Wilson says. Instead, the market’s major trend will be up for years to come

This guy makes a lot of sense.

What's his name?

Man with Head in Sand?

Or maybe man who profits from other people buying equities through him?

He’s Mike Wilson and he’s Igy approved!

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Mike does good work.

Thanks for noticing.

Igy

What's his name?

Man with Head in Sand?

Or maybe man who profits from other people buying equities through him?[/quote]

If they have been, they've probably been making money vs being invested in cash for the past nine years.

From the latest FactSet earnings insight.

Index-Level (Bottom-Up) EPS Estimate: Record-High Increase

The Q1 bottom-up EPS estimate (which is an aggregation of the median earnings estimates for all 500 companies in

the index and can be used as a proxy for the earnings for the index) has increased by 5.6% (to $36.29 from $34.37)

since December 31. In a typical quarter, analysts usually reduce earnings estimates. Over the past five years (20

quarters), earnings expectations have fallen by 3.9% on average during a quarter. Over the past ten years, (40

quarters), earnings expectations have fallen by 5.5% on average during a quarter. Over the past fifteen years (60

quarters), earnings expectations have fallen by 4.1% on average during a quarter.

*****If 5.6% is the final percentage at the end of the first quarter (March 31), it will the mark the largest percentage increase

in the bottom-up EPS estimate during a quarter since FactSet began tracking the quarterly bottom-up EPS estimate in

Q2 2002. *****

17% earnings gains this quarter. 7% sales growth.

blowout numbers.

???

Purple Martin wrote:

What's his name?

Man with Head in Sand?

Or maybe man who profits from other people buying equities through him?

If they have been, they've probably been making money vs being invested in cash for the past nine years.[/quote]

Who has been in cash the last nine years?

Your hindsight is great -- but of zero help in predicting the future

Ohsome wrote:

Who has been in cash the last nine years?

Hopefully no one. For the past 9, 8,7,6,5,4,3,2, or 1 year.

Your hindsight is great -- but of zero help in predicting the future

Like some, I don't predict the future. Like a 67% drop in the near future.

Purple Martin wrote:

Ohsome wrote:

Who has been in cash the last nine years?

Hopefully no one. For the past 9, 8,7,6,5,4,3,2, or 1 year.

Your hindsight is great -- but of zero help in predicting the future

Like some, I don't predict the future. Like a 67% drop in the near future.

Oh, Snap!

Purple Martin wrote:

Ohsome wrote:

Who has been in cash the last nine years?

Hopefully no one. For the past 9, 8,7,6,5,4,3,2, or 1 year.

Your hindsight is great -- but of zero help in predicting the future

Like some, I don't predict the future. Like a 67% drop in the near future.

That way you can critique others and claim great returns after the fact. You have no thoughts on the future market. Very courageous

If You wrote:

Purple Martin wrote:

Like some, I don't predict the future. Like a 67% drop in the near future.

That way you can critique others and claim great returns after the fact. You have no thoughts on the future market. Very courageous

If you want to see "courageous" thoughts on the future, check out the posts here by 'Ghost of Igloi'. That guy has yet to have an original thought or make a concrete prediction.

Earnie wrote:

???

Earnie(ings) FactCheck:

FactSet uses inflated non-GAAP EPS and ESTIMATES in their numbers. Here is the GAAP number for Q4 2017:

Q4,'17 As Reported (GAAP) Q4,'17 estimates and actuals have changed over the month, as 10Q/Ks are reviewed, and the actual booking of costs/charges are updated

As Reported (GAAP) Q4,'17 has declined to $26.54 from the year-end estimate of $31.77, approximately $44.6 billion.

Granted Q1 and Q2 2018 EPS estimates have been marked up, but at the same time as GDP is being marked down after the surge Q3 and Q4 2017 from hurricanes, floods and wildfires. During that time market advanced more than covering any EPS gains.

Temper your enthusiasm lest you are sucked into the coming bubble sunami.

Igy

Trews wrote:

If You wrote:

That way you can critique others and claim great returns after the fact. You have no thoughts on the future market. Very courageous

If you want to see "courageous" thoughts on the future, check out the posts here by 'Ghost of Igloi'. That guy has yet to have an original thought or make a concrete prediction.

?harrasser guy, can you tell?

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Trews wrote:

If you want to see "courageous" thoughts on the future, check out the posts here by 'Ghost of Igloi'. That guy has yet to have an original thought or make a concrete prediction.

?harrasser guy, can you tell?

☝️Narcissist guy (5 minute reply!). So predictable.

Trews wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

?harrasser guy, can you tell?

☝️Narcissist guy (5 minute reply!). So predictable.

?and harrasser guy seven minute reply