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Ghost of Disco Gary wrote:
Flagpole wrote:
Ok. I DO appreciate the response.
So, this guy, who is literally wearing a red hat, has a "model" that he says shows that Trump will win this 2024 election and then when he applies that model to 2020, it shows the exact results that happened in 2020 with Biden winning, of course.
So, 2 things:
1) Um...ok.
2) If you believe this guy and his model, then you should now be convinced that Biden won fairly in 2020.
Harris is going to win. It's over. Get your blankie and hot cocoa ready.
Toupee Lichtman did himself no favors last night with that ridiculous electoral map.
It's going to be so much fun seeing every poster both lib & conservative turn on you for another hilariously incorrect forecast.
Cackles isn't getting between 303-319 EV. This will go down as your all-time WORST prediction.
Better luck in 2028!
1) Lichtman actually doesn't wear a toupee...as if that would mean much if he did. It's his real hair.
2) I will agree with you that he didn't do himself any favors with the map...predicting EC votes goes against his Keys, and at least he was very clear about that many times. The map though wasn't ridiculous...though I think Trump manages to win NC but then Harris wins AZ and NV. Time will tell.
3) Last time you Trumpers told me I was going to be wrong and that I'd be ridiculed. How'd that work out for you? I got the winner right and only was wrong about Florida. I will have a similar showing this time.
4) You are misguided and wrong. You will see. Kamala Harris will be elected the next President of the United States. It's over.
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agip wrote:
Flagpole wrote:
So, for you Trumpers (and anyone else) who don't believe that The Keys to the White House have correctly called this race, what is it of the following things that make you so convinced that Trump is going to win?:
1) Early voting shows that women are dominating the vote in swing states...leading in all of them with a low of 50-48 in Nevada and then as much as a 12 point spread in PA (56-44).
2) In PA, seniors over age 65 are not flocking to early voting (PA has only released mail-in voting, not voting in person, but the other swing states have released both), but for those who are, those registered as Democrats are up 12 points on those registered as Republicans.
3) There is reportedly NO ground game for Republicans in any of the swing states. Trump asked Charlie Kirk to manage that, and he has no experience doing so, and Kirk has admitted it isn't going well.
4) Recent Gallup Poll says that voter enthusiasm for Kamala Harris is higher than it was for Obama in 2008.
5) Trump and his operatives are trying the same stuff they did in 2020...put out garbage Republican polling that shows that Trump is either winning or close, say that opponent is stupid, declare confidence of victory well in advance to prime the pump for calls of voter fraud, and NOW start lying about voter fraud. Trump just posted some garbage thing about catching Democrats in massive voter fraud in PA. Um...right. You don't complain about voter fraud if you're sure of victory.
On top of all of the above, you are convinced that all of the Republican registered voters are going to vote for Trump, when clearly many voted for Haley and many others have publicly stated that they are going to vote for Harris. You think that being a convicted felon doesn't matter to a defining percentage of the electorate. You dismiss the fact that Democrats have been greatly under represented in polling since The Dobbs Decision.
Ok. I really, really do not understand you all, but whatever.
Harris IS going to win this election, and it's not going to be especially close. It's over.
1) right wing attacks on voting and counting centers in detroit, philly and Milwaukee
2) lawfare from right wingers from now until whenever they lose their bar license.
3) trump calling for more violence in his name
4) right wing refusal to certify local votes or other tricks to make the electoral college fail
5) Musk using X to pass around calls for more violence
Tuesday is just the next chapter of the election. it only starts on Tuesday. Trump has brought us to a new era, where the Republican Party refuses to accept defeat.
Shame, everlasting shame.
Yep. Shame. Republicans will try sh!t, but it's not going to work. Bunch of f*cking losers.
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Better luck in 2028!
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Flagpole wrote:
2) In PA, seniors over age 65 are not flocking to early voting (PA has only released mail-in voting, not voting in person, but the other swing states have released both), but for those who are, those registered as Democrats are up 12 points on those registered as Republicans.
3) There is reportedly NO ground game for Republicans in any of the swing states. Trump asked Charlie
Harris IS going to win this election, and it's not going to be especially close. It's over.
I see the race as a toss-up, and you make some fairly reasonable points, but because it seems as though for you every single sign favors Harris, consider me at least mildly skeptical.
I see those results for over 65 in PA, too, but I don’t know if anyone has enough data to really be able to infer meaning from that. There’s not a really good benchmark for extrapolating info from these numbers (so much has changed in terms of Dem and Rep messaging about early and mail voting in the last several years), and you can imagine the kinds of habits and tendencies of over-65 voters in urban and rural areas. Among rural over-65, getting to the polls (even factoring in driving distance on average) and the prospect of waiting is less a deterrent than it is for urban. I don’t know how much that over-65 in-person election day will be Republican, but it should be substantially in their favor (I see a lot of premature and overconfident proclamations from Democrats and Republicans online about what the polling numbers and early vote numbers tell them, and I don’t have a lot of confidence).
I will agree that Harris is much more likely to have a substantially better ground game. We’ll find out if that will be enough for her in PA (especially), MI, WI, NV, etc. I don’t see her getting GA or NC.
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Let it Rupp wrote:
GermanAnglicanFrenchman wrote:
"Let's see if we can detect the subtle difference in our two presidential candidate’s closing messages.
Vice President Kamala Harris, before tens of thousands at the Ellipse near the White House, said Tuesday night: 'The United States of America is the greatest idea humanity ever devised. A nation big enough to encompass all our dreams, strong enough to withstand any fracture or fissure between us. And fearless enough to imagine a future of possibilities.'
Convicted felon Donald Trump, before a crowd of maybe 8,500 in Pennsylvania, said Tuesday night: 'It's like we’re a giant garbage can.'
Hmm. Hard to tease out the nuanced distinction between Harris’ graceful rhetoric about the greatness of our country and Trump’s 'We suck.' But the difference is there, I promise."
This ^ sounds remarkably like our own 'nonequals'.
It's sad that anyone would believe Harris actually wrote that closing message, much less believes it.
You know that politicians have speechwriters, right?
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Enjoy your loss!
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fjb wrote:
Enjoy your loss!
NYT? Right wing rag.
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Flagpole wrote:
So, for you Trumpers (and anyone else) who don't believe that The Keys to the White House have correctly called this race, what is it of the following things that make you so convinced that Trump is going to win?:
1) Early voting shows that women are dominating the vote in swing states...leading in all of them with a low of 50-48 in Nevada and then as much as a 12 point spread in PA (56-44).
2) In PA, seniors over age 65 are not flocking to early voting (PA has only released mail-in voting, not voting in person, but the other swing states have released both), but for those who are, those registered as Democrats are up 12 points on those registered as Republicans.
3) There is reportedly NO ground game for Republicans in any of the swing states. Trump asked Charlie Kirk to manage that, and he has no experience doing so, and Kirk has admitted it isn't going well.
4) Recent Gallup Poll says that voter enthusiasm for Kamala Harris is higher than it was for Obama in 2008.
5) Trump and his operatives are trying the same stuff they did in 2020...put out garbage Republican polling that shows that Trump is either winning or close, say that opponent is stupid, declare confidence of victory well in advance to prime the pump for calls of voter fraud, and NOW start lying about voter fraud. Trump just posted some garbage thing about catching Democrats in massive voter fraud in PA. Um...right. You don't complain about voter fraud if you're sure of victory.
On top of all of the above, you are convinced that all of the Republican registered voters are going to vote for Trump, when clearly many voted for Haley and many others have publicly stated that they are going to vote for Harris. You think that being a convicted felon doesn't matter to a defining percentage of the electorate. You dismiss the fact that Democrats have been greatly under represented in polling since The Dobbs Decision.
Ok. I really, really do not understand you all, but whatever.
Harris IS going to win this election, and it's not going to be especially close. It's over.
In terms of quantity, Early voting numbers for Democrats are far below where they were in 2020. They are about the same for Republicans as 2020. In Pennsylvania, the percentage of Democrats in the early voting declined from 69% in 2020 to 58% in 2024. Republicans share increased from 21% of the early vote to 31%. Women outnumber men in early voting pretty much every year, it does not seem to be any higher than in 2020. About 1/3 of Harris voters are more concerned with voting against Trump, not for Harris. Among Trump voters it is closer to 1/4 are voting against Harris, not for Trump. At the end of the day, nobody can state definitively one way or the other who is going to win.
We won’t know for sure until the votes are certified. If Trump wins the vote, I fully expect Democrats to attempt to block the certification with 14th amendment arguments or other nonsense, just as they did in 2000, 2004 and 2016. They will likely riot again in DC or other spots, just as they did in 2016.
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Good morning - concerned about what the mental state of the posters in this thread will be after Election Day. The posters here have exhibited an unhealthy obsessions and celebrity worship of their respective candidates. Hate to say it, but I can definitely see the posters here committing self harm or harm to others when Harris or Trump loses.
This post will fall on deaf ears, but to all of you here, please consider how you will behave after your preferred candidate loses and check yourself into mental health facility ahead of time if necessary.
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Not sure of the results wrote:
Flagpole wrote:
2) In PA, seniors over age 65 are not flocking to early voting (PA has only released mail-in voting, not voting in person, but the other swing states have released both), but for those who are, those registered as Democrats are up 12 points on those registered as Republicans.
3) There is reportedly NO ground game for Republicans in any of the swing states. Trump asked Charlie
Harris IS going to win this election, and it's not going to be especially close. It's over.
I see the race as a toss-up, and you make some fairly reasonable points, but because it seems as though for you every single sign favors Harris, consider me at least mildly skeptical.
I see those results for over 65 in PA, too, but I don’t know if anyone has enough data to really be able to infer meaning from that. There’s not a really good benchmark for extrapolating info from these numbers (so much has changed in terms of Dem and Rep messaging about early and mail voting in the last several years), and you can imagine the kinds of habits and tendencies of over-65 voters in urban and rural areas. Among rural over-65, getting to the polls (even factoring in driving distance on average) and the prospect of waiting is less a deterrent than it is for urban. I don’t know how much that over-65 in-person election day will be Republican, but it should be substantially in their favor (I see a lot of premature and overconfident proclamations from Democrats and Republicans online about what the polling numbers and early vote numbers tell them, and I don’t have a lot of confidence).
I will agree that Harris is much more likely to have a substantially better ground game. We’ll find out if that will be enough for her in PA (especially), MI, WI, NV, etc. I don’t see her getting GA or NC.
Anyone who tells you they KNOW who is going to win this election is an idiot.
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When Trump wins I'll be celebrating a ton. In the very unlikely scenario Kamala wins I'll be b!tching a ton on letsrun for a day or 2.
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crazy people in this thread wrote:
Good morning - concerned about what the mental state of the posters in this thread will be after Election Day. The posters here have exhibited an unhealthy obsessions and celebrity worship of their respective candidates. Hate to say it, but I can definitely see the posters here committing self harm or harm to others when Harris or Trump loses.
This post will fall on deaf ears, but to all of you here, please consider how you will behave after your preferred candidate loses and check yourself into mental health facility ahead of time if necessary.
I agree. There are some real unstable posters here.
I see Ghost of Gary, Trollminator, Flagpole and Agip all being in suicide watch early Wednesday morning. They are all very invested in this election.
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Voting matters wrote:
I fully expect Democrats to attempt to block the certification with 14th amendment arguments or other nonsense, just as they did in 2000, 2004 and 2016. They will likely riot again in DC or other spots, just as they did in 2016.
Not an argument (this time), but where did the Hillary voters riot in 2016 after she lost? I was genuinely unaware of it and would like to be clued in.
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RFK Jr. with a powerful statement:
“I asked God for 19 years to put me in a position where I could end the chronic disease epidemic and bring health back to our children, and in August, God sent me Donald Trump.”35 -
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Truth bo wrote:
crazy people in this thread wrote:
Good morning - concerned about what the mental state of the posters in this thread will be after Election Day. The posters here have exhibited an unhealthy obsessions and celebrity worship of their respective candidates. Hate to say it, but I can definitely see the posters here committing self harm or harm to others when Harris or Trump loses.
This post will fall on deaf ears, but to all of you here, please consider how you will behave after your preferred candidate loses and check yourself into mental health facility ahead of time if necessary.
I agree. There are some real unstable posters here.
I see Ghost of Gary, Trollminator, Flagpole and Agip all being in suicide watch early Wednesday morning. They are all very invested in this election.
I really don't think you have to worry about any of those posters. Most are pretty level-headed. Agip is already resigned to the fact that Kamala will lose, but she might win. Ghost of Gary shrugged of the debacle that was 2020. He rebounded no problem. Flagpole will claim that Trump stole the election and will continue on with his fishing and adoring Mrs. Flagpole. Ginamator - not sure about him. How many "business conferences" can one have. He might be in a 4-year business conference until things heat up for the 2028 election. They will all do just fine.
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kibitzer wrote:
Voting matters wrote:
I fully expect Democrats to attempt to block the certification with 14th amendment arguments or other nonsense, just as they did in 2000, 2004 and 2016. They will likely riot again in DC or other spots, just as they did in 2016.
Not an argument (this time), but where did the Hillary voters riot in 2016 after she lost? I was genuinely unaware of it and would like to be clued in.
DC. How soon you forget.
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agip wrote:
1) right wing attacks on voting and counting centers in detroit, philly and Milwaukee
2) lawfare from right wingers from now until whenever they lose their bar license.
3) trump calling for more violence in his name
4) right wing refusal to certify local votes or other tricks to make the electoral college fail
5) Musk using X to pass around calls for more violence
Tuesday is just the next chapter of the election. it only starts on Tuesday. Trump has brought us to a new era, where the Republican Party refuses to accept defeat and asks for violence to claim what it does not deserve.
Shame, everlasting shame.
It is hard to imagine Trump's upcoming cries of election fraud gaining any traction this time. For the simple reason is that everyone knows what Trump is up to. His indictments lay it all out there.
But if team Trump can somehow get this election in front of Scotus then all bets are off. They are skilled in fabricating legal Bull Sh!t to help Trump. And they want Trump in.
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