Down goes the Dow

JJKinahan wrote:

Yes, buy and holders do sell, but they don’t panick sell.

Then they get burned. Those who panic first in a meltdown win. Those who panic late or not at all get slammed.

Dumboland wrote:

JJKinahan wrote:

Yes, buy and holders do sell, but they don’t panick sell.

Then they get burned. Those who panic first in a meltdown win. Those who panic late or not at all get slammed.

Nonsense. True buy and holders never panic.

I characterized my response as panicking but actually it was a relatively deliberate decision made after spending some quality time studying the historical data in the market I track, looking at all (about 25 I think) similar rapid declines and the following market performance. At first blush it looked like the chances of a bounce (from a statistical point of view) were a little better than the chances of further decline, and so I almost decided to stand pat. But then I grabbed 29-25 randomly selected days in the history of the market and looked at forward performance. It turned out that it was likely the market would do worse than average, so I took a protective posture by liquidating 2/3 of my holdings to sit on the sidelines to watch for a bit.

From my perspective this turned out really well so I think it was a good decision. Generally, emotional decisions work out badly, or at least that’s been my experience.

Idiot! wrote:

Generally, emotional decisions work out badly, or at least that’s been my experience.

Ever been married?

Emotional Rescue wrote:

Idiot! wrote:

Generally, emotional decisions work out badly, or at least that’s been my experience.

Ever been married?

BAM!

lmao I used this same argument on a blowhard law prof I had back in the day. He was trying to argue that the world was a primarily rational place, whereupon I asked him if he had a wife and kids. The group around us had a great laugh at his expense and immediately declared him the absolute loser of the argument.

Thanks for bringing back that memory.

Maserati wrote:

Emotional Rescue wrote:

Ever been married?

BAM!

lmao I used this same argument on a blowhard law prof I had back in the day. He was trying to argue that the world was a primarily rational place, whereupon I asked him if he had a wife and kids. The group around us had a great laugh at his expense and immediately declared him the absolute loser of the argument.

Thanks for bringing back that memory.

And your final grade?

Property law. A-

Which, back in the day, was a GREAT grade.

This same guy, the first day of class, introduced himself to us, and told us that if we had any problem at all we should tell him immediately because, in his words, "I don't want anyone thinking I'm an azshole".

So later in the term he had university VP duties piling up because he was padding his resume for a future prez position, and he handed off to his retreaded grad student a paper we had to do, for grading. We all knew he had nothing to do with the grading, and we all wanted feedback, of which she had given none, because we were pretty sure she didn't even read them, and even if she had, she wouldn't have understood them.

So 3 of us went to talk to the prof in his VP office. He claimed that he had read and graded them. After the other 2 left, I stayed, and flat-out told him that I was pretty sure that he was lying and that I thought he was an azshole for it, and that he had failed in his stated goal. After I asked him to relate to me one thing from any of the papers and he couldn't, he conceded. The exchange was that I not tell anybody, and he and I would share a high-quality drink one day. I told nobody, and the drinks were very, very good.

Just how things work. I should have gotten an A.

So, what you're telling us that you settled for a half-grade lower than you rightfully deserved in exchange for an overpriced alcoholic beverage. Okay....

I guess you've just proven your point that the world is not a rational place. (case closed)

JJKinahan wrote:

Dumboland wrote:

Then they get burned. Those who panic first in a meltdown win. Those who panic late or not at all get slammed.

Nonsense. True buy and holders never panic.

So when the market loses 50% plus like in 2008-09 they don't panic and hold and lose 50% plus of their equity investments.

Hence they indeed get burned.

Not sure what you are "thinking"

The wut wrote:

JJKinahan wrote:

Nonsense. True buy and holders never panic.

So when the market loses 50% plus like in 2008-09 they don't panic and hold and lose 50% plus of their equity investments.

Hence they indeed get burned.

Not sure what you are "thinking"

It’s magic, the cult of equity never has a down side. ..until it does.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

The wut wrote:

So when the market loses 50% plus like in 2008-09 they don't panic and hold and lose 50% plus of their equity investments.

Hence they indeed get burned.

Not sure what you are "thinking"

It’s magic, the cult of equity never has a down side. ..until it does.

for the record, the bulk of this discussion originated from a question you posed. People tried to answer it based on their own strategies. And now you seem to dismiss the whole thing as a fallacy.

If you weren't prepared to hear the answers, why did you ask?

This is an honest question.

seattle prattle wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

It’s magic, the cult of equity never has a down side. ..until it does.

for the record, the bulk of this discussion originated from a question you posed. People tried to answer it based on their own strategies. And now you seem to dismiss the whole thing as a fallacy.

If you weren't prepared to hear the answers, why did you ask?

This is an honest question.

Seattle,

No worries.

My view is expressed best in the Iron Mike Tyson quote, “everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face.” Buy and hold, sell limit, all of these proposed strategies are useless and generally ignored by most proponents in a serious bear market.

Igy

Here is an interesting piece for the chartists and tren followers:

https://northmantrader.com/2018/03/11/who-is-lying/

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

seattle prattle wrote:

for the record, the bulk of this discussion originated from a question you posed. People tried to answer it based on their own strategies. And now you seem to dismiss the whole thing as a fallacy.

If you weren't prepared to hear the answers, why did you ask?

This is an honest question.

Seattle,

No worries.

My view is expressed best in the Iron Mike Tyson quote, “everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face.” Buy and hold, sell limit, all of these proposed strategies are useless and generally ignored by most proponents in a serious bear market.

Igy

You have a plan, and you have the foresight to know that the plan will probably need to change. And after a few bouts, you come to understand that you will even lose a few. You try to win more than you lose.

Your comment suggests that investors don't understand and acknowledge the risk. This one does.

seattle prattle wrote:

[quote]Ghost of Igloi wrote:

[quote]seattle prattle wrote:

You have a plan, and you have the foresight to know that the plan will probably need to change. And after a few bouts, you come to understand that you will even lose a few. You try to win more than you lose.

Your comment suggests that investors don't understand and acknowledge the risk. This one does.

Seattle,

I believe most investors don’t understand and acknowledge underlying building market risk. The popularity of index investing is obvious, bolstered by low cost, and generally a one direction trade. Momentum traders have been rewarded in a similar fashion albeit at higher cost. Investors have the belief that the gains since the financial crisis are durable. I don’t believe they are. My assumption is that all of these sins will be unwound in a messy conclusion to the era of central bank asset manipulation. Those that have a fundamental view understand that this is a natural process of the markets and if you are prepared there is nothing to be feared. Gaming in the current environment is akin to picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.

Igy

Seattle is not the only one who understands the risks. Most of us do, despite what Igy believes.

It is good that you believe, most investors do not. DGTD posts generally reflect average investor market views supported and promoted by the stock selling industry.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

It is good that you believe, most investors do not. DGTD posts generally reflect average investor market views supported and promoted by the stock selling industry.

I disagree.