Gwen Jorgensen Quitting Tri, Going Full Time Marathon.

i like it that she is planning to do something courageous at 34 years of age. she will run a good marathon for sure and it will be ok if it is not a first class result at the beginning. she has a big aerobic engine, but the speed endurance (2:26 and even faster) is nothing that will be there after a few months of specific marathon training. we will see, good luck.

Another arrogant and condescending post written by someone who clearly is clueless.

Gwen actually isn't the fastest runner among ITU triathletes. That would be:

Her track credentials are second to none in the history of triathlon.

As to your heat "observation," racing 2-hour triathlons for years in all conditions, many times which were hot and humid, IS a very good indicator of how someone handles heat and humidity and would handle them in a marathon. In fact, I can't think of many facts that would be an even better indicator than this other than actually running multiple marathons in such conditions.

You also turned comic with your "I'm most curious to see how she handles early adversity" missive -- like she never has dealt with adversity before. Something like being a heavy favorite to medal in London in 2012 that was on a course that couldn't have been more perfect for her and then flatting and bombing counts as just a bit of adversity. How did she respond to that? Four years of some of the most focused and motivated training you ever will see in any sport.

Hot and Humid wrote:

As to your heat "observation," racing 2-hour triathlons for years in all conditions, many times which were hot and humid, IS a very good indicator of how someone handles heat and humidity and would handle them in a marathon.

I'm going to guess you've done a lot of triathlons and not a lot of marathons. Because this is crazy town. Running for 2.5 hours in warm weather is its own monster.

Just out of curiosity, how many DNFs (or bonks) are there among the elites in warm triathlons? Do they have the same dropout/total bomb rate that a warm marathon has?

There are a ton of DNFs and bonks among the elites in warm triathlons. I'm sure you saw the video of J Brownlee in Cozumel last year. You don't get a bigger bonk than that.

The other thing is that many (most?) triathlons at the elite level are conducted in hot/humid conditions because it generally is a summer sport and you can't have people swimming in 45 degree water. So someone racing ITU races is going to have A LOT of experience with dealing with those conditions. I completely get that a 20-minute swim, followed by an hour bike leading up to a 10K isn't going to heat you up like a marathon would in similar conditions but you also have to take into account that nearly all ITU races are conducted in the afternoon when it is the hottest. Compare that to the marathon majors, which all are conducted in the spring or fall where conditions usually are great for running and almost never brutal (there are unexpected exceptions). The only major marathons that are run in conditions expected to be brutal are the Olympic marathons (and even those often are not bad, like in Rio). What elite marathoner has a lot of experience racing marathons in hot and humid conditions? Every ITU triathlon has a ton of experience in those conditions.

I totally agree that she's got a ton of experience exercising in warm, humid conditions. But they're just two totally different sports, and that experience isn't going to mean much. As you say, the triathlon is mainly a summer sport, where "succeeding" in warm conditions means "running a decent pace for 10K in really warm weather", whereas in the marathon, she'll have to run basically that same pace for two and a half straight hours, so even 60 degrees is going to feel warm. There just is no way to compare them.

I would agree that the fact that she's not totally bombing coming off the bike is a good sign, but here's the rub: the last 10K of a marathon follows a 20-mile tempo run. It's a crazy, crazy event, and I just think some of the folks here are basing predictions on events and performances that are nothing like the marathon.

Hot and Humid wrote:

Another arrogant and condescending post written by someone who clearly is clueless.

Gwen actually isn't the fastest runner among ITU triathletes. That would be:

https://www.iaaf.org/athletes/united-states/chelsea-sodaro-270418

Her track credentials are second to none in the history of triathlon.

So that's where Reilly ran (and swam and biked)off to! Good for her.

I'm sure Gwen is set on the marathon, but the w10000 is probably the easiest US team to make right now.

"There just is no way to compare them." What? There is every way to compare racing in hot and humid conditions in a 2-hour race that ends with an all-out run to racing in less hot and humid conditions in a 2.5 hour race that usually involves a tempo run for most of it that ends with an all-out run. In your world, it would be impossible for anyone to have any idea how well she handles heat even if she has handled heat well for years in comparable situations. Why would anyone even bother trying to race a hot marathon in your world because it's impossible to have any idea how you would do until you actually race one (and anyone tall would be doomed to fail)?

I'm not talking about making the team. I'm talking about Gold in Tokyo.

Hot and Humid wrote:

"There just is no way to compare them." What? There is every way to compare racing in hot and humid conditions in a 2-hour race that ends with an all-out run to racing in less hot and humid conditions in a 2.5 hour race that usually involves a tempo run for most of it that ends with an all-out run. In your world, it would be impossible for anyone to have any idea how well she handles heat even if she has handled heat well for years in comparable situations. Why would anyone even bother trying to race a hot marathon in your world because it's impossible to have any idea how you would do until you actually race one (and anyone tall would be doomed to fail)?

I don't really follow most of that logic, but it sounds like you find the two disciplines fairly similar. I disagree. I live in the most humid part of the country. You can run a triathlon on every weekend of the year, but you can only run a marathon during January. There's just no comparison between the two.

Anyway, we are now way off topic. I personally don't find her success in the triathlon to be particularly relevant to her future in the marathon, and I think her age and height are going to be limiting factors, but I hope she does well. Totally agree with the others about her having a better chance in the 10000m, but I imagine she'd be bored out of her mind going from a three-sport event to 25 laps on the track.

Exactly! Comparing running for 2.5hrs in hot and humid conditions vs a Triathlon in the same conditions is RIDICULOUS! Have you ever cycled? You don't get NEARLY as hot riding a bike 20+mph than running.

wejo wrote:

I've got some Qs for the Triathlon people. How would Gwen do in a sprint Olympic Triathlon? Is this like moving the Olympics from a 10,000m to a 5,000 (I know it's half the distance) or is it more like going from 10k to 1500?

How long do you all think she had this in mind? She moved to Portland a while ago. And the money impact is interesting. What was she making in triathlon? Obviously as Olympic champ there are tons of endorsement opportunities that are still there but there aren't appearance fees in triathlon right?

Kind of strange if Shalane's Nike contract is up and so is Gwen's Asics deal. Makes sense both might be year after Olympics.

Also curious what most of these women have written in their contracts about pregnancy. Being independent contractors pregnancy really could cost them but being Olympic champ has to help.

Of the ITU/WTS circuit, there are a couple of events each year which are already sprint distance. With her run speed, she does well, but if she's got a deficit off the bike, there's obviously less wiggle room to make up. She's run down 90 second leads on 10k runs, but a 45 second lead on a 5k run isn't equal. People are able to hold on a little better, and you would have to assume the women racing will get faster over the next couple of years compared to Gwen over the shorter distance. So with that in mind, it's closer to moving from a 10k to a 1500 - a couple of fast swimmers can get away, the bike takes a half hour or less, and then they're just holding on for 16.5-17.5 minutes.

Before NYC 2014 I talked to her and her husband and at that point they were getting offers from race organizations to do their iron distance stuff. They said they were offered appearance fees and that it was good, but didn't make sense to add in any long races - full focus was on Olympics. Certain race organizations will put $$ up - Challenge Family races (particularly in Europe), Chris McCormack now in his Super League Triathlon, the Island House Invite is largely appearance fee (Holowesko). In race earnings alone I'd have to assume she was banking quite a bit, but she wasn't doing those big money races. Plenty of endorsements at this point.

Add another to the "not even close to comparable" side. You can't compare swimming (cooled by water), biking (cooled by wind) and a 30 minute run (no cooling) to a marathon (2-3 hours of no cooling). It's pretty darn basic.

what you're failing to comprehend is that hot and humid conditions for a marathon are great conditions for a triathlon. The ITU race in cozumel where J Brownlee collapsed it was 94 degrees with the humidity of the Caribbean! The 2016 Marathon trials where Shalane had issues it was only 67 degrees and 50% humidity. That's what makes it comparable. Some of the weather these triathlons are in would be outright dangerous to run a marathon in.

I'm pretty surprised at how big of reaction this announcement is getting on this message board. Gwen is clearly a motivated, driven person with great talent but I never would have thought a triathlete transitioning to marathon would elicit this great of a debate on her potential. I've said it earlier in the thread I think she has great potential but without seeing her train a fully cycle and run debating her potential for a 5 min difference in time a moo point.

not a tri douche wrote:

who?

a girl who thinks she's cute but really she's really ugly

Well, sure, if we are going to view an ITU triathlon like someone who never has done or watched one, then sure, there's no comparison. However, the reality is that the swim is an all out swim for 1500m. You still get very warm and sweat plenty despite being in water (talk to a swimmer if you don't believe me). The bike is an hour and usually is full of sprints and accelerations. You get very warm on a bike in those conditions. If it's 80 degrees out, what's the cooling factor going 25mph on a bike? It doesn't take the real feel down to 60 degrees. The "run" isn't a 30-minute jog as you seem to think it is. It's an all-out effort that is begun only after spending 80 or so minutes in hot conditions so you already are very warm. You also run the 10K harder than you do for any 10K segment in a marathon. Most importantly, this is all done in the afternoon during the hottest part of the day with the sun beaming down on you. No elite marathon in the world is held in the middle of the afternoon in the middle of the summer (including the Olympic marathons) and that's when EVERY ITU race is held over the summer.

It's obviously not exactly analogous but you all are completely off your rockers deluding yourselves into thinking that someone who handles heat well in a 2-hour ITU triathlon held in the middle of the summer just might also be able to handle heat well in a marathon. It's pretty darn basic. BTW, no elite marathon takes 3 hours either. We are talking sub 2:30.

I predicted some slowish times because not everything is going to go perfectly. I'm also assuming she doesn't have good leg speed and won't get it anytime soon. Remember when Lukas Verzbicas switched from tri training to running training. It didn't go well. There's a lot of potential for overuse injuries so I accounted for that.

HMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM wrote:

I'm pretty surprised at how big of reaction this announcement is getting on this message board. Gwen is clearly a motivated, driven person with great talent but I never would have thought a triathlete transitioning to marathon would elicit this great of a debate on her potential. I've said it earlier in the thread I think she has great potential but without seeing her train a fully cycle and run debating her potential for a 5 min difference in time a moo point.

I was with you till you said moo point instead of moot point...

She's already run a road 10k (2014, Australia, 32:21) faster than the time you're predicting she'll run for a track 10k. So you think switching to running only is going to make her slower? You are basically assuming she'll flame out, or you're unaware of her previous race times?