Faith Kipyegon Breaking4 attempt confirmed -will go for sub-4 mile in Paris on June 26th

I actually agree with your take that this is more like expecting a 3.38/9 mile from Jakob - for a number of reasons. But one thing I wanted to ask was with respect to the pacing comment - do you only think a human body counts as "pacing"? It's fine if you do - what would you then count wavelight as then? I guess I just watch all these WR's where all of these athletes - from Cheptegei to Jakob to Kipyegon and even without a body there, the lights seem of immense value because they literally run right beside them until they are confident of making their final push for home. Is that not actually the real "pacing"? I get that a body has some aerodynamic benefit but obviously that's completely lost/negated if it's not at the right pace. Just interested in your perspective.

I think there’ll be significant financial incentives to keep her interested.
Realistically both her and Nike must know that sub 4 isn’t going to happen. It’s a matter of how close she can get.

If she does it I’ll be shocked. I was an 800/Mile type and trained with a lot of Mile/5k types like Faith. They would open with a 1k around this time early season, and would typically finish the year between a 4:08-4:15. I know male and female runners have a lot of biological differences but personally if I opened up with a 2:29 k I would not expect to be able to hold that pace for another 609 meters.

That's ok. You've just shown which IQ percentile you fall into. You don't get that it is no more credible that she should take nearly 8 secs off her own pr/wr than Ingebrigtsen (or any other top male miler) should do the same. No one suggests he should be able to run 3:36 or so. So there is no way she can make that kind of improvement. It is therefore a Nike publicity stunt. (Of course, if it was Jessica Hull then who knows ...)

Since experts consider 3:40 may be the absolute biological limit for human achievement your suggesting that Ingebrigtsen would have to at least run 3:38 to match her sub-4 effort puts them both in the realm of that which simply isn't possible - for a man or for a woman.

And I guess if they take her out on pace, people will be excited at 1200 even if she TOTALLY blows up and runs over 4:07 or doesn't make it to the finish line.

This is what I wrote in the PS to the article:

When Nike first announced it, it made zero sense to me as a sub-4:00 seems so preposterous. But having thought about how it would play out, it will be entertaining for fans. So I understand why Nike is planning an event which has almost a zero percent chance of being successful.

As a result, I expect the event will take place and the best-case scenario is they try to hit 3/4th of a mile in 3:02 and she runs 4:04 high. That might sound like a big downer, but it could be mesmerizing for casual fans as they would be trying to convince themselves she could somehow find a 57.9 final quarter or a 26 final 200.

Now, if they do it and try to force the pace so she hits 3/4th of a mile at sub-4 pace, I think she’ll blow up and maybe run slower than her current world record.

One other way to think about this is this. Do you think if Nike set this same event up for Jakob Ingebrigtsen that he could run 3:20.35 for 1500 meters or 3:36.83 for the full mile? Well those are the times you get if he improves the exact same percentage they are asking Faith to make in the mile.

Things to remember

This will not be WR eligible, she will have new pacers joining in as she runs.

Since it will not be WR eligible, she can wear whatever shoes Nike can create to make her faster. They could have flubber in them, who knows. Definitely wont be "compliant" shoes.

With these circumstances, I think it is possible, still very unlikely, but I will tune in for sure to see what magic shoes Nike came up with for this

I have now read every single post in this entire thread.

Regardless of whether you think she can run sub 4:00 or not, this is Nike’s marketing genius.

Look at all the publicity it’s getting, in articles, videos etc. around the World.

Every article, every video, every post, every word written (positive or negative), draws attention to Nike. It’s marketing genius.

Marketing 101.

Like I said, great for Nike, bad for the athletes. Kipyegon is a sell out, just like Kipchoge.

Kipchoge gets some special hate since he did taint the real sub 2 mark to make a few bucks. Now the first person to legitimately do it will not have all the recognition and financial gain they deserve. Also there are more people now who believe WR is sub 2 than people who know otherwise. That's actually really messed up.

I wish for Kipyegon to fail spectacularly and fade to 4:15 or DNF.

If she can't run sub 1:52, she can't break four.

As Milli Vanilli mimed, "Girl you know it's true!!"

and I bet he would have said last year that a woman would never run a 2:09 marathon in his lifetime !

Can someone give me the highlights of the drafting "study". I remember thinking it was nuts, but also think I said on the podcast, "this isn't that hard to do, they should just organize it now with male pacers."

But there is 0% chance she does this with existing shoes and a legit race with traditional female rabbits.

Honest question: Do you really think someone can break 4 and never run 1:52?

The only thing she will be breaking is wind.

Here is how Anthony Famiglietti broke 4 in the mile at age 40 after being retired for a few years:

Nike just needs to make sure that Kipyegon has the right pooch for the job!

Nice article. Very science heavy but that's fine - ironically this is the same fundamental basis that Rodger Kram and his lab boffins at UC believe they have for it's plausibility - the "science" and the "numbers" say it's possible.

Which actually is a good lesson the next time anyone wants to die on stake over something just because of the "science" - there are many paths even within the scientific/research field you can cherry pick to give you an outcome that serves your agenda or narrative.

I honestly think a great hoodwink job has happened in Beaverton. Nike are desperate and looking for something big and they are always looking for something big in the realm of "the female athlete". But it also exposes the lack of knowledge and understanding they have out there these days in terms of real running knowledge. Last week Elliot Hill said this:

“Faith is a once-in-a-generation talent, and her audacious goal is exactly what Nike stands for,” Breaking4 is the kind of bold dream we will do everything in our power to make real — helping both elite and everyday athletes to believe anything is possible. No other brand can offer the level of expertise, innovation and support that our Nike teams can. Alongside Faith, our innovators are breaking barriers by combining cutting-edge sport science with revolutionary footwear and apparel innovation to help her achieve a truly historic goal.”

And I wondered if I called Hill on Sunday morning and said "hey with respect to the sub4, did you just see she ran 2.29.2 for a kilometer in a WR attempt in the Diamond League" what he would say. Would he say "Wow that's incredible, so close to a WR already - things must be right on track for this sub 4", or would he say "Wow that's good, but man, that seems quite far off where she needs to be for this sub 4 thing given x,y,z etc". Because I'm pretty sure it would be the former. I think Hill just doesn't know running and is just a victim of the people that advise him who are all looking for their moment in the sun - their chance to get on stage and have their 15 minutes of fame.

Final point - you are very right about pacing being so much more difficult in the mile than the marathon. Running so much closer to anaerobic threshold - any concerted segment they get wrong (too fast off the line, a slowing down then surge if they change pacers) has dramatic impact. Which is why wavelight has been so game changing on the track but guess what - she's had access to this for 3 seasons now and has done quite well utilizing it in all her record attempts. Strike this off as something that will help here - it's already the primary reason she got down to 3.49.0/4.07.64 to begin with.

And I bet u not would disrespect Kipyegon or Kipchoge to them face.

Kipyegon's splits during her 4:07.64:

62.60 at 409 m (i.e. she went out pretty hard)

62.00 for the next 400 m (nice and even)

62.20 for lap 3 (ditto)

60.84 for lap 4 (fast finish she and looked fresh)

I think that she had more in the tank and her intrinsically faster 1500 m suggests that too.

Her drafting recently in the 1000 m was horrible.