Flagpole - you said his Rookie of the year numbers were "meh" according to you. You dismissed his numbers. He only played about 100 games. Extrapolate those numbers to full season and you have an OPS. of .925, 33 home runs and 100 RBIs. Those are MVP-consideration numbers today.
Well, they were meh. ROY is nice, but it doesn't really mean much. Total stats still mean something either for a year or a career, and he hit 22 HRs that year, so meh.
His career stats will end up being unremarkable. He very will might win his third MVP this year though, so that will be a tough thing to overlook. He WILL be remembered for greatness during a realtively small period of time, and his career stats will not look good compared to other Hall of Fame members (assuming he gets into the Hall of Fame based on three MVPs...his career stats alone and just two MVPs won't do it).
You said he only hit 22 HRs that year - he only played in 104 games! Come on Flagpole - quit deceiving people.
If Ohtani stays healthy he will pass Dunn in everything but strikeouts.
No chance. First of all, staying healthy is part of it...as players get older, they have a harder and harder time staying healthy, and that is especially true for bigger players.
Dunn had 462 HRs. Ohtani currently has 212. So, he needs 250 more HRs to tie Dunn. No chance. He is likely to be either coming off the bench or out of baseball by age 37, so he has to average more than 31 HRs a season between now and age 37 to do so. He's already proven to be injury prone before age 30, so no way he gets enough at bats and stays good enough to age 37 to do that. The vast majority of baseball players who don't cheat with PEDs fall off a cliff around age 35. No reason to expect him to beat the average there.
Ohtani hits 41 homers a year and he's 30. 250 more homers isn't "highly unlikely" and there certainly isn't "no chance".
Dunn hit 168 home runs after he was 30 and he only played until he was 34 including his monster season when he was 31 and batted .159 with 11 HRs in 122 games.
No chance. First of all, staying healthy is part of it...as players get older, they have a harder and harder time staying healthy, and that is especially true for bigger players.
Dunn had 462 HRs. Ohtani currently has 212. So, he needs 250 more HRs to tie Dunn. No chance. He is likely to be either coming off the bench or out of baseball by age 37, so he has to average more than 31 HRs a season between now and age 37 to do so. He's already proven to be injury prone before age 30, so no way he gets enough at bats and stays good enough to age 37 to do that. The vast majority of baseball players who don't cheat with PEDs fall off a cliff around age 35. No reason to expect him to beat the average there.
Ohtani hits 41 homers a year and he's 30. 250 more homers isn't "highly unlikely" and there certainly isn't "no chance".
Dunn hit 168 home runs after he was 30 and he only played until he was 34 including his monster season when he was 31 and batted .159 with 11 HRs in 122 games.
Yeah, why would you expect Ohtani to hit more HRs between now and age 37? There's a better change that Ohtani is out of baseball by age 35 than he averages more than 31 HRs per season between now and age 37.
No chance. First of all, staying healthy is part of it...as players get older, they have a harder and harder time staying healthy, and that is especially true for bigger players.
Dunn had 462 HRs. Ohtani currently has 212. So, he needs 250 more HRs to tie Dunn. No chance. He is likely to be either coming off the bench or out of baseball by age 37, so he has to average more than 31 HRs a season between now and age 37 to do so. He's already proven to be injury prone before age 30, so no way he gets enough at bats and stays good enough to age 37 to do that. The vast majority of baseball players who don't cheat with PEDs fall off a cliff around age 35. No reason to expect him to beat the average there.
Ohtani hits 41 homers a year and he's 30. 250 more homers isn't "highly unlikely" and there certainly isn't "no chance".
Dunn hit 168 home runs after he was 30 and he only played until he was 34 including his monster season when he was 31 and batted .159 with 11 HRs in 122 games.
Also, Ohtani hits 41 HRs per 162 games, not per year. He has been in the league 7 years. 7 x 41 = 287. He doesn't have 287 HRs.
Power hitters who fell off a cliff at age 35 or sooner:
Mark Texieria: Out of baseball at age 36 Joey Votto: One good season after age 33 Albert Belle: Out of baseball at age 33 Dale Murphy: stunk it up from age 32 on
I'd provide more, but the Letsrun Bad Gateway is making this torture.
Ohtani hits 41 homers a year and he's 30. 250 more homers isn't "highly unlikely" and there certainly isn't "no chance".
Dunn hit 168 home runs after he was 30 and he only played until he was 34 including his monster season when he was 31 and batted .159 with 11 HRs in 122 games.
Yeah, why would you expect Ohtani to hit more HRs between now and age 37? There's a better change that Ohtani is out of baseball by age 35 than he averages more than 31 HRs per season between now and age 37.
Alex Rodriguez hit 258 home runs in his 30s and 9 when he was 40.
Pujols hit 354 home runs after he was 30 including 64 HRs in his 40s.
Babe Ruth who was overweight and didn't have any of the modern nutrition or health care support modern athletes get hit 427 home runs after he was 30 and played until he was 40.
It might not be likely but it's absurd to claim it's "highly unlikely" or that there's "no chance".
The fastest to 300 EVER, he did it quicker than Babe Ruth, Hank Aaron, ARod, Willie Mays, Barry Bonds,Albert Puljos, etc. He's on pace to get 60-63 this year.
If he stays healthy, he will join the 500 HR club & become a Hall of Famer, easy.
Ohtani hits 41 homers a year and he's 30. 250 more homers isn't "highly unlikely" and there certainly isn't "no chance".
Dunn hit 168 home runs after he was 30 and he only played until he was 34 including his monster season when he was 31 and batted .159 with 11 HRs in 122 games.
Also, Ohtani hits 41 HRs per 162 games, not per year. He has been in the league 7 years. 7 x 41 = 287. He doesn't have 287 HRs.
Power hitters who fell off a cliff at age 35 or sooner:
Mark Texieria: Out of baseball at age 36 Joey Votto: One good season after age 33 Albert Belle: Out of baseball at age 33 Dale Murphy: stunk it up from age 32 on
I'd provide more, but the Letsrun Bad Gateway is making this torture.
Ohtani is coming into his prime.
He hits a home run once every 16.3 at bats.
If he plays 5 more years and plays 135 games a season and gets 600 at bats he could easily get 184 more home runs missing a huge chunk of every season.
Dale Murphy hit 185 HRs in his 30s.
Joey Votto hit 199 HRs in his 30s.
Mark Texeira hit 167 HRs in his 30s.
Albert Belle hit 139 HRs in his 30s and quit playing at 32.
Also noteworthy: Ruth's 1932 World Series jersey sold for $24 million a few days ago. Nearly 100 years later, The Great Bambino still resonates with fans.
Also, Ohtani hits 41 HRs per 162 games, not per year. He has been in the league 7 years. 7 x 41 = 287. He doesn't have 287 HRs.
Power hitters who fell off a cliff at age 35 or sooner:
Mark Texieria: Out of baseball at age 36 Joey Votto: One good season after age 33 Albert Belle: Out of baseball at age 33 Dale Murphy: stunk it up from age 32 on
I'd provide more, but the Letsrun Bad Gateway is making this torture.
Ohtani is coming into his prime.
He hits a home run once every 16.3 at bats.
If he plays 5 more years and plays 135 games a season and gets 600 at bats he could easily get 184 more home runs missing a huge chunk of every season.
Dale Murphy hit 185 HRs in his 30s.
Joey Votto hit 199 HRs in his 30s.
Mark Texeira hit 167 HRs in his 30s.
Albert Belle hit 139 HRs in his 30s and quit playing at 32.
Ohtani just turned 30
I will say this he need some giddyup to bet to 500 auto number by 37?
he may never pitch again
If he does and blows out arm again he will miss even more time
But I would easily project him to 475-85
McGriff had that plus 1500 plus and .285 and had to wait until New Era
I think a lot of players now are better than the Babe, but Babe did it 100+ years ago when hitting 10 home runs was a lot.
Ruth did it when there were 16 teams.
The talent is so watered down now with 32 teams it's absurd.
100 years ago the 100m record was like 10.6 and they did it in clogs on bad tracks.
The talent difference between now and 100 years ago isn't as big as people think.
This is not a good argument.
You have to compare the number of teams with the population of potential players. It's true that baseball was king back in Ruth's day, meaning that most sports-inclined boys wanted to play baseball. But, now consider these factors:
- the US population was ~122mil in 1930.
- MLB was segregated in Ruth's time, excluding many great potential players
- the current US population is 336mil (and, again, no segregation)
- potential players are now (unlike in Ruth's time) coming from outside the US, especially the DR, Venezuela, PR, Cuba, as well as multiple other countries such as Japan, as in Shohei's case
So you can't say talent is watered down with 32 teams vs. 16 without considering the base of potential players.
I think a lot of players now are better than the Babe, but Babe did it 100+ years ago when hitting 10 home runs was a lot.
On the Babe Ruth thing. you can think differently but you would be wrong..lol. You can only dominate the era you are in. Babe Ruth hit more HR's in one year than some teams. He is the greatest player of all time without question, and clearly not the greatest athletic looking player.. But his production vs the peers? Only Gehrig was even close and his numbers are also cartoonist.
Here is a nuance for guys like Flagpole who would get my point. Gehrig batted 4, Ruth 3, Gehrig must have drive in almost every other runner Ruth had not in front of him. LOL. It's an exaggeration but think about it , without even the other base cleaning doubles etc . just via HR alone Gehrig came up 700+ times with no one on. His numbers become even more absurd taking than into consideration.
Shohei Ohtani can both be Hall of Fame caliber good right now and need to perform at his level for several more years to justify Hall of Fame consideration. History is littered with athletes who had strings of all-time seasons only to quickly disappear and end up well short of the needed credentials.
The talent is so watered down now with 32 teams it's absurd.
100 years ago the 100m record was like 10.6 and they did it in clogs on bad tracks.
The talent difference between now and 100 years ago isn't as big as people think.
This is not a good argument.
You have to compare the number of teams with the population of potential players. It's true that baseball was king back in Ruth's day, meaning that most sports-inclined boys wanted to play baseball. But, now consider these factors:
- the US population was ~122mil in 1930.
- MLB was segregated in Ruth's time, excluding many great potential players
- the current US population is 336mil (and, again, no segregation)
- potential players are now (unlike in Ruth's time) coming from outside the US, especially the DR, Venezuela, PR, Cuba, as well as multiple other countries such as Japan, as in Shohei's case
So you can't say talent is watered down with 32 teams vs. 16 without considering the base of potential players.
You're ignoring the fact that baseball was far and away the #1 sport in America when Ruth played and the MLB wasn't losing so many athletes to football and basketball.
P.S. We need to get away from this notion that Japanese league play doesn't count, that it's a glorified minor league. That may have been true two generations, an Ichiro and a Hideo Nomo ago, but time and again Japanese pros (even non-elite ones!) have come overseas and held their own in MLB.
The quality of play in NPB has substantially improved. American washouts used to be able to go overseas and dominate, but not anymore. Most of the imports nowadays actually get sent to the Japanese minors! The incumbent Japanese players are consistently better than most of the imports. To wit, though he's persona non grata now for obvious reasons, Trevor Bauer initially got shelled when he got to NPB and had to turn it up a notch to be able to do well there.
Only counting Ohtani's MLB stats is a misnomer today, because a lot of his pitching and hitting stats in NPB should carry a lot more weight than they did in Sadaharu Oh's day. And if you do count his NPB history, Ohtani's HOF credibility (though still needing years of work) becomes a lot more substantial.
This post was edited 36 seconds after it was posted.
1) I made that comment THREE YEARS AGO, and it was correct THREE YEARS AGO and it said nothing about his potential.
2) Ohtani still is not eligible for the Hall of Fame, so it's really a pertinent question for WHEN he gets his 10 years of service in.
3) IF he were to get to 10 years and IF he had the career stats he has today..212 Home runs and a .278 batting average, are there players in the Hall of Fame worse than that? Yes, a few. Sally mentioned Bill Mazeroski. In based on fielding prowess that Ohtani does not have. Power hitters though in? No...he's not yet got the career stats to measure up. His 38 wins as a pitcher don't do anything either. Lots of players in who in their prime were better players then than those in the Hall of Fame, but that means nothing. Gotta do it over the long haul. Was Eric Davis in his prime better than Bill Mazeroski in his prime? Of course.
4) He's a very good player and has now strung together 4 good years in a row. Doesn't make him a hall of famer yet. The hyperbole surrounding him is insane. Better than Babe Ruth? Um...no. Will he ever pitch again? Who knows?
5) Adam Dunn strung together 7 seasons in a row with 38 or more HRs (46, 40, 40, 40, 40, 38, 38...then he had an injury-laden season were he hit just 11 and then hit 41 and 34 HRs after that. He's not in the Hall of Fame.
Adam Dunn is your argument? A career .237 hitter?
Babe Ruth played for 22 years and his lifetime batting average is .342. That's 70 points higher than Ohtani.
Ohtani has only played 6 years and he hits an average of 41 home runs a year. Ruth would average 46 home runs a year in a 162 game season.
Ruth's OPS after 22 years was 1.164. Ohtani's been over 1.0 once in his career.
Ohtani's great. He's not in the same league as Ruth.
Comparing apples with oranges. Full credit to Babe Ruth for dominating the league at the time. But it was a white league with much fewer pitchers throwing significantly longer and more often.
I think a lot of players now are better than the Babe, but Babe did it 100+ years ago when hitting 10 home runs was a lot.
Ruth did it when there were 16 teams.
The talent is so watered down now with 32 teams it's absurd.
100 years ago the 100m record was like 10.6 and they did it in clogs on bad tracks.
The talent difference between now and 100 years ago isn't as big as people think.
I don't think that's true. Top talent is top talent, whether 100 years ago, or Japan, or MLB. But depth is much better on the MLB than anywhere else, in any era.
Also noteworthy: Ruth's 1932 World Series jersey sold for $24 million a few days ago. Nearly 100 years later, The Great Bambino still resonates with fans.
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