List of exit polls so far of those who already voted: ABC/Ipsos: Harris 62-33 CNN Poll: Harris 61-36 NYT/Siena: Harris 58-40 HarrisX poll: Harris 61-32 USAToday/Suffolk: Harris 63-34
Pretty good argument on why polling may be completely missing Dem support like what happened during 2022 midterms. I think there is a horse race bias in polling and reporting that needs a Trump surge to get clicks/ratings. The real story is that little has changed since the 2022 midterms. Trump has done nothing other than be as Trumpy as he ever has. In fact, he had a much better focus on policy in 2016. On the Dem side, little has changed. Harris will capture some good energy from female voters and especially women of color. But she will not get a huge defection from Republicans and has done little to motivate young voters or progressive voters. So, I really see nothing that has happened this campaign season that would cause any big shift in the electorate. The big polls have been consistently showing Harris 51/Trump 47. That is pretty much in line with midterms and 2020. The electoral college will be close, but no reason to believe that there has been any big shift. WI, MI and PA have been leaning blue since midterms. Trump may have a chance in the sunbelt, but maybe not as Kari Lake is doing horribly against a very left leaning Ruben Gallego.
Pretty good argument on why polling may be completely missing Dem support like what happened during 2022 midterms. I think there is a horse race bias in polling and reporting that needs a Trump surge to get clicks/ratings. The real story is that little has changed since the 2022 midterms. Trump has done nothing other than be as Trumpy as he ever has. In fact, he had a much better focus on policy in 2016. On the Dem side, little has changed. Harris will capture some good energy from female voters and especially women of color. But she will not get a huge defection from Republicans and has done little to motivate young voters or progressive voters. So, I really see nothing that has happened this campaign season that would cause any big shift in the electorate. The big polls have been consistently showing Harris 51/Trump 47. That is pretty much in line with midterms and 2020. The electoral college will be close, but no reason to believe that there has been any big shift. WI, MI and PA have been leaning blue since midterms. Trump may have a chance in the sunbelt, but maybe not as Kari Lake is doing horribly against a very left leaning Ruben Gallego.
Trump has grown way more insane than 2020. An unknown portion of moderate Republicans like Haley voters aren’t going to hold their nose and vote for Trump. Trump straight up told them he didn’t need their vote.
They may not vote for Harris because some believe it to be sacrilegious but they may stay home or write in. some likely want Trumpism done with and they can expedite that with a Harris vote.
List of exit polls so far of those who already voted: ABC/Ipsos: Harris 62-33 CNN Poll: Harris 61-36 NYT/Siena: Harris 58-40 HarrisX poll: Harris 61-32 USAToday/Suffolk: Harris 63-34
Gary's copium polls are so dumb. Trump's gonna lose in a landslide.