Official LRC President Joseph R Biden Thread

Oh? wrote:

agip wrote:

well ok fair, but we can't just pretend COVID didn't happen. it was and is a major, world shaking event that changed almost everything economic in the country. That we are even close to getting back to normal so soon is a great testament to the US system and Dem policies.

In other words, the recovery has been very strong and Joe deserves credit for its successes.

... but the recovery started in 2020 under Trump, and has continued roughly as it was going throughout Biden's tenure. I'm not at all convinced it's fair to say the credit should go to Joe Biden for the economy recovering. You could certainly argue that Biden hasn't gotten in the way of people being rehired, but wages compared to inflation would be a hard sell (in his first year wages definitely went DOWN compared to prices, and have only now begun to flatline compared to MOST prices but still increasing slower than some pretty important prices), and saying the economic recovery was directly due to Joe Biden would be a significant overreach.

agip wrote:

Oh? wrote:

... but the recovery started in 2020 under Trump, and has continued roughly as it was going throughout Biden's tenure. I'm not at all convinced it's fair to say the credit should go to Joe Biden for the economy recovering. You could certainly argue that Biden hasn't gotten in the way of people being rehired, but wages compared to inflation would be a hard sell (in his first year wages definitely went DOWN compared to prices, and have only now begun to flatline compared to MOST prices but still increasing slower than some pretty important prices), and saying the economic recovery was directly due to Joe Biden would be a significant overreach.

would you also agree that the economy under Trump simply continued the trends started in the Obama admin? Because they...did. If you agree with that, as you really should, then giving trump any credit for the economy on his watch would be....a significant overreach.

Are we on the same page there?

Plus, the US has recovered better than our rich nation peers in Europe, which suggests Biden deserves some credit.

Oh? wrote:

agip wrote:

would you also agree that the economy under Trump simply continued the trends started in the Obama admin? Because they...did. If you agree with that, as you really should, then giving trump any credit for the economy on his watch would be....a significant overreach.

Are we on the same page there?

Plus, the US has recovered better than our rich nation peers in Europe, which suggests Biden deserves some credit.

First of all, you continue to talk like I'm supportive of Trump. I never have been and am not being so now. It might be wise not to try to debate someone as if they believe something they don't. Not everyone that disagrees with you or disapproves of Biden is a Trump-loving GOP supporter.

Secondly, those aren't equivalent comparisons. Biden doesn't get credit for improving the economy because the wages earned compared to inflation has meant that workers earn less than they did previously. In terms of unemployment, yes Biden's economy has continued the trajectory that Trump's set forth... but that's not the only or even most relevant measure of the economy. You are correct that unemployment under Trump followed a similar trajectory as unemployment under Obama ... but considering lower taxes, and improved wages vs. inflation, the economy under Trump was doing slightly better than it was under Obama while the same cannot be said for Biden compared to Trump.

Again, to recap:
Biden doesn't get credit for unemployment rates continuing trends that we saw during the post-COVID recovery under Trump, but he doesn't get bad marks because he didn't prevent the employment recovery. Similarly, Trump doesn't get credit for unemployment rates continuing trends that we saw during the post-Great Recession recovery under Obama. I should specify, this is all on an overarching basis: a more granularized assessment would be interesting (e.g. Urban vs. Suburban vs. Rural employment; wages and employment for different subsets of the population; a comparison of different sectors within the economy, etc.)

Biden does get credit for inflation increasing faster than wages, and that's not a positive "credit". Trump didn't have that problem compared to Obama: wages increased faster than inflation. Adding to that lower tax rates under Trump and Biden, and people ended up with more money under Trump than they did under Obama or Biden.

As for comparisons with Europe ... that's particularly hard to due because they are so much more effected by everything that is happening with Russia right now. However, we do know that they had much lower inflation for most of 2021. I don't know how median wages and unemployment compared prior to Russia's invasion, and anything after that is not really an apples-to-apples comparison.

agip wrote:

Oh? wrote:

First of all, you continue to talk like I'm supportive of Trump. I never have been and am not being so now. It might be wise not to try to debate someone as if they believe something they don't. Not everyone that disagrees with you or disapproves of Biden is a Trump-loving GOP supporter.

Secondly, those aren't equivalent comparisons. Biden doesn't get credit for improving the economy because the wages earned compared to inflation has meant that workers earn less than they did previously. In terms of unemployment, yes Biden's economy has continued the trajectory that Trump's set forth... but that's not the only or even most relevant measure of the economy. You are correct that unemployment under Trump followed a similar trajectory as unemployment under Obama ... but considering lower taxes, and improved wages vs. inflation, the economy under Trump was doing slightly better than it was under Obama while the same cannot be said for Biden compared to Trump.

Again, to recap:
Biden doesn't get credit for unemployment rates continuing trends that we saw during the post-COVID recovery under Trump, but he doesn't get bad marks because he didn't prevent the employment recovery. Similarly, Trump doesn't get credit for unemployment rates continuing trends that we saw during the post-Great Recession recovery under Obama. I should specify, this is all on an overarching basis: a more granularized assessment would be interesting (e.g. Urban vs. Suburban vs. Rural employment; wages and employment for different subsets of the population; a comparison of different sectors within the economy, etc.)

Biden does get credit for inflation increasing faster than wages, and that's not a positive "credit". Trump didn't have that problem compared to Obama: wages increased faster than inflation. Adding to that lower tax rates under Trump and Biden, and people ended up with more money under Trump than they did under Obama or Biden.

As for comparisons with Europe ... that's particularly hard to due because they are so much more effected by everything that is happening with Russia right now. However, we do know that they had much lower inflation for most of 2021. I don't know how median wages and unemployment compared prior to Russia's invasion, and anything after that is not really an apples-to-apples comparison.

ok sounds like we don't disagree a whole lot. And of course this is just a snapshot, looking in the rearview mirror. If US inflation falls as the bond market predicts it will, then any 'but inflation' excuses for not giving Biden credit will fall away.

but yes, right now, 8% inflation erases much of the benefit of the improvement in wages, jobs, home prices, etc.

As for Europe, their inflation was a bit lower agreed but now it's pretty much the same as ours, or very close. but we have significantly better jobs and GDP growth. Advantage USA.

I will say....measuring inflation accurately and consistently is not possible and varies from nation to nation. It's probably a fool's errand to compare inflation across borders. I mean even measuring US inflation is highly controversial let alone comparing the US to the UK ro France to the Netherlands etc.

agip wrote:

Oh? wrote:

First of all, you continue to talk like I'm supportive of Trump. I never have been and am not being so now. It might be wise not to try to debate someone as if they believe something they don't. Not everyone that disagrees with you or disapproves of Biden is a Trump-loving GOP supporter.

Secondly, those aren't equivalent comparisons. Biden doesn't get credit for improving the economy because the wages earned compared to inflation has meant that workers earn less than they did previously. In terms of unemployment, yes Biden's economy has continued the trajectory that Trump's set forth... but that's not the only or even most relevant measure of the economy. You are correct that unemployment under Trump followed a similar trajectory as unemployment under Obama ... but considering lower taxes, and improved wages vs. inflation, the economy under Trump was doing slightly better than it was under Obama while the same cannot be said for Biden compared to Trump.

Again, to recap:
Biden doesn't get credit for unemployment rates continuing trends that we saw during the post-COVID recovery under Trump, but he doesn't get bad marks because he didn't prevent the employment recovery. Similarly, Trump doesn't get credit for unemployment rates continuing trends that we saw during the post-Great Recession recovery under Obama. I should specify, this is all on an overarching basis: a more granularized assessment would be interesting (e.g. Urban vs. Suburban vs. Rural employment; wages and employment for different subsets of the population; a comparison of different sectors within the economy, etc.)

Biden does get credit for inflation increasing faster than wages, and that's not a positive "credit". Trump didn't have that problem compared to Obama: wages increased faster than inflation. Adding to that lower tax rates under Trump and Biden, and people ended up with more money under Trump than they did under Obama or Biden.

As for comparisons with Europe ... that's particularly hard to due because they are so much more effected by everything that is happening with Russia right now. However, we do know that they had much lower inflation for most of 2021. I don't know how median wages and unemployment compared prior to Russia's invasion, and anything after that is not really an apples-to-apples comparison.

ok sounds like we don't disagree a whole lot. And of course this is just a snapshot, looking in the rearview mirror. If US inflation falls as the bond market predicts it will, then any 'but inflation' excuses for not giving Biden credit will fall away.

but yes, right now, 8% inflation erases much of the benefit of the improvement in wages, jobs, home prices, etc.

As for Europe, their inflation was a bit lower agreed but now it's pretty much the same as ours, or very close. but we have significantly better jobs and GDP growth. Advantage USA.

I will say....measuring inflation accurately and consistently is not possible and varies from nation to nation. It's probably a fool's errand to compare inflation across borders. I mean even measuring US inflation is highly controversial let alone comparing the US to the UK ro France to the Netherlands etc.

agip wrote:

agip wrote:

ok sounds like we don't disagree a whole lot. And of course this is just a snapshot, looking in the rearview mirror. If US inflation falls as the bond market predicts it will, then any 'but inflation' excuses for not giving Biden credit will fall away.

but yes, right now, 8% inflation erases much of the benefit of the improvement in wages, jobs, home prices, etc.

As for Europe, their inflation was a bit lower agreed but now it's pretty much the same as ours, or very close. but we have significantly better jobs and GDP growth. Advantage USA.

I will say....measuring inflation accurately and consistently is not possible and varies from nation to nation. It's probably a fool's errand to compare inflation across borders. I mean even measuring US inflation is highly controversial let alone comparing the US to the UK ro France to the Netherlands etc.

but you did sort of sidestep my point that the trump economy simply continued the trends of the obama economy. instead, you took two snapshots: Obama and Trump and concluded Trump was better. Which is true. The Trump economy *was* better than the Obama economy. But that wasn't my point.

My point is that the Trump economy simply continued the trend lines started under the Obama economy. Real wage growth simply continued on the same upward trend line, is my point. As with most other measures.

Which is the same thing you are saying for Biden taking over from Trump. That the recovery was simply handed off from trump to Biden. So if you give no credit to Biden then you should give no credit to Trump either. Same thing.

Although I'd argue that trump was handed a solid economy while biden had to navigate a massively difficult global economic situation because of covid. Trump took over on a clear day, floating gently along with the current. Biden took over in a maelstrom.

Oh? wrote:

agip wrote:

ok sounds like we don't disagree a whole lot. And of course this is just a snapshot, looking in the rearview mirror. If US inflation falls as the bond market predicts it will, then any 'but inflation' excuses for not giving Biden credit will fall away.

but yes, right now, 8% inflation erases much of the benefit of the improvement in wages, jobs, home prices, etc.

As for Europe, their inflation was a bit lower agreed but now it's pretty much the same as ours, or very close. but we have significantly better jobs and GDP growth. Advantage USA.

I will say....measuring inflation accurately and consistently is not possible and varies from nation to nation. It's probably a fool's errand to compare inflation across borders. I mean even measuring US inflation is highly controversial let alone comparing the US to the UK ro France to the Netherlands etc.

I wouldn't really say any inflation "excuses" would "fall away". If inflation suddenly goes back to increasing by ~2% a year, that still leaves Biden's first year throughout which it increased by 8% a year... those increases don't disappear from history. That amount of damage isn't going to be compensated for under Biden's presidency even if the economy continues it's recovery and he's reelected in 2024. Optimistically, maybe if we're lucky we can negate that damage by the mid/late 2030s but I wouldn't count on that happening much sooner than that.

You seem to be too wrapped up in reading numbers from the government reports to consider their ramifications.

Median income is still lagging behind inflation in the US. I have no idea how it compared to Europe prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and comparisons since then are not particularly useful due to the differing circumstances.

Oh? wrote:

agip wrote:

but you did sort of sidestep my point that the trump economy simply continued the trends of the obama economy. instead, you took two snapshots: Obama and Trump and concluded Trump was better. Which is true. The Trump economy *was* better than the Obama economy. But that wasn't my point.

My point is that the Trump economy simply continued the trend lines started under the Obama economy. Real wage growth simply continued on the same upward trend line, is my point. As with most other measures.

Which is the same thing you are saying for Biden taking over from Trump. That the recovery was simply handed off from trump to Biden. So if you give no credit to Biden then you should give no credit to Trump either. Same thing.

Although I'd argue that trump was handed a solid economy while biden had to navigate a massively difficult global economic situation because of covid. Trump took over on a clear day, floating gently along with the current. Biden took over in a maelstrom.

No I didn't?

I specifically said that Trump's economy continued the unemployment trends of Obama's, just like Biden's economy continued the unemployment trends of Trump's. Did you not read that part? I then explained how Trump's economy was also different (slightly better than) than Obama's, and how Biden's economy was worse than Trump's. Perhaps you should reread my post?