Faith Kipyegon Breaking4 attempt confirmed -will go for sub-4 mile in Paris on June 26th

Still got a lot of time, but 2:29 probably wasn't what Nike was looking for there

So the DL has posted a short 1min highlight package of the race.

I'll be honest, it doesn't look like she is just floating around the track there - as in she is hauling a$$ to stay with those pace lights basically set at 4min mile pace. Especially after the race, her body language etc doesn't say "that was a controlled TT at my mile race pace for an under-distance race".

And I understand the comeback - "well it's her first race, if she was doing this next week it wouldn't be great but she has 8 weeks now". Yeah I don't think so. If people are agreeing she would need to be in 2.23/4 shape to even entertain this, what exactly do you think is happening in 8 weeks that would lead to 5-6 seconds coming off a 1000m time? That would be a 4% improvement! So every pro that just ran in Xiamen can expect that sort of boost come end of June based on that logic - we would see a hell of a lot of WR's! Pro's are not like high school athletes that can have massive fluctuations in performance especially early in a season. Of course this is not going to be her season peak in terms of form - she's not that far off it though.

Based on today, even assessing this as a "stepping stone" race to this attempt, it would still be miraculous if she broke 4.05.

Right at the end of the clip as she is crouching down trying to recover there is a short look at her spikes - just looked like a pair of standard Vic 2's. She wouldn't be allowed to wear anything illegal in a WA race anyway, thought she might have been wearing a development pair so no insights into what she might be rocking in June unfortunately.

If she can beat 4 minutes then Ingebrigtsen should be able to run 3:36. A mere Nike publicity stunt.

You really are obsessed. Seek help.

You aren't very sharp, are you? You couldn't see that the point is that it is no more credible that Kipyegon should beat 4 minutes than that one of the fastest male runners today should also be able to carve 7 seconds off his best mile time. (Or perhaps you think he actually can? You probably do.)

Because you and I could run take triple her steroids, do the same training and never get close. Is there a little 'fakeness' to it? Sure, but name me a record in the last 35 years that isn't likely a little contaminated.

A woman running under 4 minutes regardless of circumstances is brilliant

Agreed, but about the spikes - no these are not standard victory 2s, they are a new prototype version, yet apparently legal. Probably the victory 3...

Exactly right. Lots of top athletes open their season with a relatively slow first race. Equivalent of say Jakob running a 3:33 to win a 1500m opener and running a 3:26x later in the season. Also she won by over 3.5 seconds ~ 25 metres. Didn’t really have anyone pushing her.. In ideal conditions, with great pacing and her running the race of her life I’d say a sub 4 is still within the realms of possibility.

Am I the only one that thinks Beatrice Chebet could probably run a faster mile than Faith? That last 200m in China shows she has some serious wheels…!

Nike should have them BOTH attempt sub 4…

Unfortunately, no.

As Salvatore said 4:05 is more realistic. She may get 4:03 with some shoe yet to be worn in public.

She has run hyper-fast season openers before so that's no excuse.

This was an important marker today, if she had run 2:27, I'd say yeah she's got a chance. But to hold that race-pace today for another 609m is not going to happen.

Sorry that's not the equivalent of Jakob running 3.33 at all.

A 3.59.99 mile is at the very least the equivalent of a 2.22.0 kilometer. The scoring tables have it as a 2.19.6 but I know guys that ran under 4 that weren't quite that quick - they certainly weren't any slower than 2.23.0

Okay let's use your Jakob and his 1500m as the example. The 1500m is 1.5 times the distance of a 1k, so we have to factor that in too right? So that 7 second "season opener" in the 1500m is actually worth about 4.5 seconds over a 1000m. Based on that she should have been able to run 2.27.0 two nights ago at the very least and this is using an extremely conservative/comparison with the times (almost ridiculously in her favor).

But the really big difference between the Jakob "3.33" and her run the other night? Watch Jakob here in the closest scenario to what you are alluding to - Rabat 2023 where he runs 3.32.59 to open his season.

Aside from the visual difference, this was not a race set up with wavelight on WR pace that he was pushing hard to hold on to. Her race the other night was the equivalent of Jakob setting up a 1.52.5, 2.48.5 race and running 3.29.5 - 3 seconds off what he might run in July/August. You can't compare a 1500m where the guys are cruising for 3 laps and then ramping up the final 300m vs a shorter race where someone is working to maintain WR pace from the gun. Jakob was 1.55.3, 2.52.3 in this race - capable of running 3.30 flat had he pushed with comparable effort.

I think 4:05 is the absolute, fastest time she’ll ever run in a DL TT. If she does run 4:00, it will mean Nike’s shenanigans were worth 5 seconds. How is that part of sports?

What was all that waffle? You are obsessed with Jakob. That's ok. I am not judging you.

My "miraculous" sub 4.05 is taking into account a new shoe and better drafting but I even started a thread a few days ago looking for peoples ideas/theories on what a new spike might be or do and nobody seemed to have any idea. I think the best response was "custom last" (shape of her foot), a tuned zoom air bag and fixed pin spikes. That is not going to be enough.

I don't actually think they will have a dramatically different product at all - unless she wants to run in a Vaporfly with a plate on it (a-la Valby at the NCAAs last season) but I'm not sure how this translates to a mile tbh. Stack heights above 20mm for any track event is just added weight and compromises the force athletes put into the surface. I think that this concept it fully reliant on this drafting logic but I personally think someone at Nike has been sold snake oil about how great the impact will be.

Again just my opinion, but I think that she would have needed to run 2.25 flat in Xiamen and done it looking like she could have easily run a second faster if she wanted to drop the hammer in the final 200. If in 8 weeks there is a sub 4 it will only be one thing and I don't want to even think about that - even then I think that would have had to have been going on all winter and right now which based on that 1k it hasn't.

ObserverofTrends is right as usual.

She would need minimally a 2:27 low for an opener with the normal in-season progression to improve to low 2:25 at the rock bottom minimum.

4:05 will be a stretch if absolutely everything works perfectly with no setbacks. Even that is a significant WR step and still 7 sec faster than every other athlete. So why is she being set up for failure in this way?

This is not totally physically impossible with megadownhill or e.g. multiple wind tunnel fans positioned for assistance at each 100m mark.

After all...J GAT 9.45!!!! but only under the most ridiculous conditions for a Japanese game show.

In an IAAF-compliant race there is just no way.

1) The more I think about it I agree with a few that have suggested this won't actually go ahead. There will be an "injury" or something that requires a postponement and it will fade into the darkness never to be mentioned of again.

2) Absolutely not. She could run sub 3.50 down Queen St in Auckland if they bought back the old Molenburg Mile. Though that might hurt though - I wouldn't recommend this in season.

While I agree that Kipyegon's attempt is a huge stretch. These are not equivalent. First, as a percentage a 10% slower runner carving off some seconds is equivalent to the faster runner carving off 10% less seconds. Second, Ingebrigtsen's mile PB is fairly equivalent to his 1500 pb, where as Kipyegon's 1500m PB is more than a second better than her mile PB, her combined 1500/mile equivalent PB is 4:06.5. Third Ingebrigtsen's PB was paced through 900m, and had someone on his back the entire race, where as Kipyegon's records were paced through 800m, and there was no one in sight.

Combining these factors, asking for sub 4 from Kipyegon is more like asking for a sub 3:38 or 3:39 from Ingebrigtsen, not 3:36. Both would be incredibly unlikely. That we agree on. And her 1000m run tonight was not what I would have wanted to see from someone planning to break 4. But all the best to her. I hope she proves me wrong.

Just another awful idea from Nike.The 2hr thing was truly cringe.