57 COVID deaths in GA today: Post-opening spike starting?

That's not what I said. But if you want to know what various experts say, Google is your friend.

5/31 data

A tick in the wrong direction - this Sunday was worse than last Sunday in terms of daily deaths...but I'm willing to say that the holiday weekend probably skewed data collection a week ago. It will take a good amount more days before we know that the improving trend has reversed.

But....Seven day rolling averges of daily deaths ticked up for the US and the globe on 5/31.

I don't look much at case counts but it's pretty clear that global case counts are on the rise and in fact have always been on the rise. They never took a turn downward, like deaths did. Probably that's because of testing vagaries, and that's why I don't look at case counts much.

In the national rankings, Mexico continues its rise. It is up to 30th worst per capita, after being 34th worst a week ago.

Might I suggest that every poster here limit their daily screen time to one hour. The long hours searing your retinas in front of a screen has fried your brains. You are no longer thinking correctly. Media has you gripped in fear and the global elites are playing you like marionettes. This environment has been created. Cambridge Analytics is celebrating their historic success.

Anyone who controls the direction of technological development will have a tremendous capacity to shape and manipulate society.

We live in a world where business has bought science.

We are being shaped and manipulated, but I’m going to ignore it because I have a pacifier and right now that all I care to think about

From the Atlanta Journal and Constitution:

Georgia’s recent spike in new COVID-19 cases likely indicates the virus is spreading and cannot be solely attributed to a surge in testing, a prominent public health expert said Thursday.

“It’s not ‘either or.’ I think it’s probably both,” Dr. Carlos del Rio, chairman of the global health department at Emory University and the dean overseeing physicians at Grady Memorial Hospital, said during a press conference with Dr. Colleen Kraft, director of Emory’s Clinical Virology Research Laboratory.

More diagnostic testing was certainly turning up more new cases, but the partial end of the state’s shelter-in-place order, allowing most Georgians to move about, is a key reason behind a 26% percent rise in cases between the weeks of May 11 and May 18, Del Rio said.

Hardloper wrote:

Fat hurts wrote:

You haven't been paying attention. The spike in Georgia is happening right now. You can go to the GA Department of Health web site and see the case data for yourself.

I've been following this as well as rt.live. I'm not seeing it

Oh really? Because it is pretty see-able.

Georgia testing numbers were much higher yesterday and thus the positivity rate was lower, which is good:

Date/Cases/PCR Tests/Positivity Rate

May 28 / 628 / 4430 / 14.18%

May 29 / 597 / 5085 / 11.74%

May 30 / 468 / 4567 / 10.25%

May 31 / 732 / 10687 / 6.85%

Though we don't yet know the number of new cases for today, we know that today's positivity rate will be back up. The number of PCR tests for today is back down to 6106. New cases was already at 433 as of 9am.

There is some indication that the spike in new cases could be leveling off. But the curve takes shape over time so it will be a few days before we know for sure.

Fat hurts wrote:

From the Atlanta Journal and Constitution:

Georgia’s recent spike in new COVID-19 cases likely indicates the virus is spreading and cannot be solely attributed to a surge in testing, a prominent public health expert said Thursday.

“It’s not ‘either or.’ I think it’s probably both,” Dr. Carlos del Rio, chairman of the global health department at Emory University and the dean overseeing physicians at Grady Memorial Hospital, said during a press conference with Dr. Colleen Kraft, director of Emory’s Clinical Virology Research Laboratory.

More diagnostic testing was certainly turning up more new cases, but the partial end of the state’s shelter-in-place order, allowing most Georgians to move about, is a key reason behind a 26% percent rise in cases between the weeks of May 11 and May 18, Del Rio said.

Fat, to be clear. I too would expect the likelihood of a case increase from ending shelter in place orders. So I'm not arguing that (though I don't see the exponential increase you are referring to), this is a virus after all. Deaths are the key data point, actually infection death rate, where the estimates seem to range anywhere from .10% to .40%, not enough to warrant shelter in place, in my opinion. Especially when you further break the IFR down into demographic data.

WWRD wrote:

Fat hurts wrote:

From the Atlanta Journal and Constitution:

Fat, to be clear. I too would expect the likelihood of a case increase from ending shelter in place orders. So I'm not arguing that (though I don't see the exponential increase you are referring to), this is a virus after all. Deaths are the key data point, actually infection death rate, where the estimates seem to range anywhere from .10% to .40%, not enough to warrant shelter in place, in my opinion. Especially when you further break the IFR down into demographic data.

I don't want to accuse you of anything, but I'd like to know exactly what you meant by that last statement. It could be interpreted in a very bad light.

I just saw a US study that showed the IFR-S rate (Infection Fatality Rate – Symptomatic) to be 1.3%, which is 13 times higher than the influenza IFR-S rate of 0.1%. And they stated that their estimate was probably on the conservative side.

I'm also not sure how you don't see the exponential increase. I've posted the graph from the Georgia Department of Health several times. It's right there.

Now there are a few things like humidity that might naturally stop the spread, but so far there is no evidence of that with this virus. People could decide on their own to isolate, but I'm seeing the opposite here.

So now that everything, including bars and nightclubs, are open in Georgia, how would we not see exponential growth? What is going to stop this second wave?

breit leit wrote:

Oh really? Because it is pretty see-able.

(link)

It wasn't there 5 days ago when I posted that, breitbart guy.

Just wanted to make sure you could see it now. Wouldn't want you to be out of touch.

Fat hurts wrote:

GA Gal wrote:

You say the experts say people like you don’t need to be tested. Who do the experts say need to be tested?

That's not what I said. But if you want to know what various experts say, Google is your friend.

Stop being obtuse.

You must be in the very high risk group if you only go out every 3 weeks for groceries and only interact with your family. From your username, I take it you are obese??? Did you go out much before the shelter order?

GA Gal wrote:

Stop being obtuse.

Look, obtusity is a major risk factor for this virus but it's not that easy to just "stop being obtuse." It takes years to lose all that weight safely and most people just don't have the willpower to sustain proper diet and exercise.

GA Gal wrote:

Fat hurts wrote:

That's not what I said. But if you want to know what various experts say, Google is your friend.

Stop being obtuse.

You must be in the very high risk group if you only go out every 3 weeks for groceries and only interact with your family. From your username, I take it you are obese??? Did you go out much before the shelter order?

I've told you several times that I'm not going to comment on something I don't know much about. Exactly who should be tested and when is a topic that is best left to experts.

On the contrary, you must be in a high risk group if you have already been tested twice. Why did you feel the need to be tested?

Here are graphs of daily cases and fatalities for Georgia and Florida, for information (all data 7-day smoothed, taken from the Johns Hopkins University data site):

https://ibb.co/H4ZrWR5

Key takeaways from my point of view:

- new cases in Georgia have fluctuated around a relatively constant value of 60 cases per million population the past month

- new fatalities in Georgia have crept up gradually over the past 3 weeks from about 2.5 to about 3 per million population

- new cases in Florida have been creeping upward the past 3 weeks or so (~ 30 to ~ 35 per million per day), while at the same time fatalities have dropped slightly (~ 2 to ~ 1.5 per million per day)

The move to ease restrictions in both states seems to have resulted in the outbreak doing no better than stalling. No huge rebounds yet, but no decrease either. If those states are happy to have continuing sickness and death, then I guess their decisions will be viewed as the right ones.

6/1 Data

6/1 Data

A plateau seems to be forming in the rolling 7 day average of daily deaths. After a steady approx 6 weeks of improvement, the last 5 days haven't really improved. Both for the world and the US.

We did not hit cyclical lows on 6/1. I hope the moving average will resume declines today and this will just be a few days hitch.

Although seems to me at some point this thing will stall out and just burble around until a vaccine comes out.

The bad take is that lockdowns started to ease in mid April and here are two weeks later with death counts starting to rise. Which is what you'd expect if you think the lockdowns worked.

In the rankings the only change among the nations and US states I track is Brazil...it's up to 21st worst, after being 28th worst just 2 weeks ago.

Key moment here.

agip wrote:... key moment here.

agip, here is a plot for the whole US, then US outside NY and NJ, then the whole world:

People can take what they like from those graphs. I find them highly discouraging.

Recent global growth is dominated by increasing cases across Central / South America, Africa, east Mediterranean and Southeast Asia, as seen in this map showing 2-week change in daily cases (yellow, orange and red indicate increasing, green is roughly constant, blue is decreasing):

Here are three South American countries as examples to illustrate the current locus of growth:

interested reader wrote:

agip wrote:... key moment here.

agip, here is a plot for the whole US, then US outside NY and NJ, then the whole world:

https://ibb.co/hdMrsyX

People can take what they like from those graphs. I find them highly discouraging.

Recent global growth is dominated by increasing cases across Central / South America, Africa, east Mediterranean and Southeast Asia, as seen in this map showing 2-week change in daily cases (yellow, orange and red indicate increasing, green is roughly constant, blue is decreasing):

https://ibb.co/KXZBvdL

Here are three South American countries as examples to illustrate the current locus of growth:

https://ibb.co/qjYK6Lf

good stuff. Shows the point we are at now. We'll know in a week or two whether the decline will continue or not.

There is something that many on this thread have misunderstood. The state statistics that you see on these different web sites come from state health departments. Most sites do their reporting and graphs based on the raw number of cases reported to the state health department on a given day.

But a case that is reported today might be from an infection that happened three weeks ago. Another case reported on the same day might be from an infection that happened yesterday. This skews the data.

For a better picture of what is happening in Georgia, go to the Georgia Department of Health web site. There, they have a graph showing cases based on when symptoms first occurred, which is a far more accurate measure of how the virus is spreading over time.

What you will see is a sharp spike in cases that started on May 11, about three weeks after the lockdown was lifted.

https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report

At what point do you think you will end your personal lockdown? The lockdown for high risk groups like yours ends 6/12. Will you start going out then or will you still shelter?

I was tested twice (and am scheduled again on Fri.) because I feel it’s important to know if I have the virus so I don’t spread it to others. Call it my civic duty.