[quote]Precious Roy wrote:
Texas is up over 7,000 new cases today. Highest total since mid-August.
What's a case?
A positive test.
Half these folks will get no symptom.
70% of the remaining 50% will get mild symptoms.
[quote]Precious Roy wrote:
Texas is up over 7,000 new cases today. Highest total since mid-August.
What's a case?
A positive test.
Half these folks will get no symptom.
70% of the remaining 50% will get mild symptoms.
In Georgia, more people 90 and older have died than 55 and under. More people 80 and older have died than those under 70.
The Unkle wrote:
[quote]Precious Roy wrote:
Texas is up over 7,000 new cases today. Highest total since mid-August.
What's a case?
A positive test.
Half these folks will get no symptom.
70% of the remaining 50% will get mild symptoms.
Uh huh. And in the week ending October 31st, a thousand more Texans died from all causes than would have been expected, based on previous years.
Hmm. What could be different this year, compared with the same week last year? AFAIK there weren't any mass shootings in Texas, the last week in October this year...
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htmThe Unkle wrote:
In Georgia, more people 90 and older have died than 55 and under. More people 80 and older have died than those under 70.
Yep. And I guess old people kinda *deserve* to die, don't they?
You know, along with fat people. And diabetics. And asthmatics. I mean, they're not runners--not even young and healthy!--so they don't really *deserve* to keep living amirite?
The Unkle wrote:
Precious Roy wrote:
Texas is up over 7,000 new cases today. Highest total since mid-August.
What's a case?
A positive test.
Half these folks will get no symptom.
70% of the remaining 50% will get mild symptoms.
About 2% of "cases" will get dead.
The Unkle wrote:
[quote]Precious Roy wrote:
Texas is up over 7,000 new cases today. Highest total since mid-August.
What's a case?
A positive test.
Half these folks will get no symptom.
70% of the remaining 50% will get mild symptoms.
3,780 people died from COVID in Texas since my post at the end of October. Before Thanksgiving, cases blew past the highest daily levels seen during the surge over the summer. Some of that is attributable to increased testing in anticipation of the holidays (which is a good thing and may help slow spread if positives isolate). But, hospitalizations are up from 5,512 on Oct 27 to 8,634. So, a case is often someone ending up in the hospital because they have trouble breathing and can also be someone dying alone with a nurse holding up an iphone so the family can see their loved one for the last time. But to you these are just worthless elderly people. Unfortunately, you will one day be just another worthless elderly person and wish that people treated the elderly and the sick better.
lease wrote:
The Unkle wrote:
[quote]Precious Roy wrote:
Texas is up over 7,000 new cases today. Highest total since mid-August.
What's a case?
A positive test.
Half these folks will get no symptom.
70% of the remaining 50% will get mild symptoms.
Uh huh. And in the week ending October 31st, a thousand more Texans died from all causes than would have been expected, based on previous years.
Hmm. What could be different this year, compared with the same week last year? AFAIK there weren't any mass shootings in Texas, the last week in October this year...
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
Sure they did.
From the chart below we can see that the seven day average daily deaths from covid was @ 90 at the beginning of the month, going down to 60 something a few weeks later and that back to @ 80 per day at the end of October. Lets' estimate 80 x 7 = 560, all it 600, people died in Texas due to Covid in the week ending 10/31. Given their advanced age and poor health, let's say 100 would have died anyway. Thus, 500 extra deaths. How does this ramp up to 1,000?
https://covidusa.net/?state=TexasThe Unkle wrote:
lease wrote:
[In] the week ending October 31st, a thousand more Texans died from all causes than would have been expected, based on previous years.
Sure they did.
Glad you agree!
Using the CDC's chart linked below (scroll down almost halfway, and select Texas as the jurisdiction), it's clear that that's exactly what happened.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htmWell, ok then wrote:
The Unkle wrote:
What's a case?
A positive test.
Half these folks will get no symptom.
70% of the remaining 50% will get mild symptoms.
About 2% of "cases" will get dead.
That's too high, don't you think?
lease wrote:
The Unkle wrote:
Sure they did.
Glad you agree!
Using the CDC's chart linked below (scroll down almost halfway, and select Texas as the jurisdiction), it's clear that that's exactly what happened.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
Please explain how
The Unkle wrote:
lease wrote:
Sure they did.
Glad you agree!
Using the CDC's chart linked below (scroll down almost halfway, and select Texas as the jurisdiction), it's clear that that's exactly what happened.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
Please explain how 500 Covid deaths = 1,000 excess deaths
The Unkle wrote:
Please explain how 500 Covid deaths = 1,000 excess deaths
Dunno--I have to think that your source for Covid-19 deaths and the CDC's chart of *all* deaths may have been drawing on somewhat different data. As a number of people have posted (in this thread and others), the total number of Covid deaths is likely being somewhat undercounted--despite all the publicity about a few deaths from other causes (traffic deaths, whatever) that were foolishly misattributed to Covid-19 simply because the person tested positive for SARS-CoV-2.
But if you're acknowledging 500+ Covid deaths in Texas during that week, that's a seriously good starting point for discussion.
formerly present wrote:
The Unkle wrote:
In Georgia, more people 90 and older have died than 55 and under. More people 80 and older have died than those under 70.
Yep. And I guess old people kinda *deserve* to die, don't they?
You know, along with fat people. And diabetics. And asthmatics. I mean, they're not runners--not even young and healthy!--so they don't really *deserve* to keep living amirite?
Just listing the facts.
Why does that trigger you so?
You need to examine that
lease wrote:
The Unkle wrote:
Please explain how 500 Covid deaths = 1,000 excess deaths
Dunno--I have to think that your source for Covid-19 deaths and the CDC's chart of *all* deaths may have been drawing on somewhat different data. As a number of people have posted (in this thread and others), the total number of Covid deaths is likely being somewhat undercounted--despite all the publicity about a few deaths from other causes (traffic deaths, whatever) that were foolishly misattributed to Covid-19 simply because the person tested positive for SARS-CoV-2.
But if you're acknowledging 500+ Covid deaths in Texas during that week, that's a seriously good starting point for discussion.
Is that your way of saying you do not know how 500 Covid deaths results in 1,000 excess deaths?
It's my way of saying the numbers are questionable
The Unkle wrote:
Just listing the facts.
Why does that trigger you so?
Because, *in the context of ALL your posts on the subject*, it's clear that you're trying to use those facts (and I'm assuming they *are* facts--I haven't vetted them) to support a position that Covid-19 is really nothing to worry about and that we all should just "live our lives" and not be bothered to do things that might reduce the number of Covid deaths. Because, I mean, shoot, most of them were just gonna die soon anyway, right?
The survivors of the quarter-million dead might have a different opinion.
formerly present wrote:
The Unkle wrote:
Just listing the facts.
Why does that trigger you so?
Because, *in the context of ALL your posts on the subject*, it's clear that you're trying to use those facts (and I'm assuming they *are* facts--I haven't vetted them) to support a position that Covid-19 is really nothing to worry about and that we all should just "live our lives" and not be bothered to do things that might reduce the number of Covid deaths. Because, I mean, shoot, most of them were just gonna die soon anyway, right?
Same reply to you.
The survivors of the quarter-million dead might have a different opinion.
The Unkle wrote:
Well, ok then wrote:
About 2% of "cases" will get dead.
That's too high, don't you think?
21850 deaths / 1226367 cases = 1.8% case fatality for Texas per your link above.
Well, ok then wrote:
The Unkle wrote:
That's too high, don't you think?
21850 deaths / 1226367 cases = 1.8% case fatality for Texas per your link above.
But aren't we told that the number of cases is vastly understated?
The Unkle wrote:
Well, ok then wrote:
21850 deaths / 1226367 cases = 1.8% case fatality for Texas per your link above.
But aren't we told that the number of cases is vastly understated?
Oh no. It doesn't understand CFR vs IFR
The data in Texas is very noisy because of the holidays. Testing went up significantly before Thanksgiving as people were flocking to get tested before gathering with family. Positivity rate plateaued at around 12% as testing rates went up. But I have a feeling that Texas is really going to get hit hard in December. We just got our first real cold front after a fairly mild fall. Temps are in the 30/40s in the morning across the state, which means dry air inside and outside. If you look at how COVID has been spiking across the US, it almost mirrors a map of where fall temps are dropping. Osterholm thinks that COVID isn't seasonal and this is all just pandemic fatigue. But every other coronavirus has been seasonal with a big spike in late fall and early winter.