Official Covid Vaccine thread

Heartless wrote:

Harambe wrote:

Thank you for finally engaging with your base rate errors. However, you immediately ran into Simpson's paradox! I've tried to warn you about this. Just read and try and grasp those two confounders and you'll be most of the way there.

Neither of those two statements were false. You are arguing against a strawman of "100% vax efficacy" at this point.

Do you take issue with analyzing data with a hypothesis in mind? The dude (a highly qualified stats professor) identifies the key confounders in the raw data and shows how controlling for those confounders inverts the effect (vax on death). That is interesting to a STEM brain, I'd imagine!

I explained what the P-value was and how it was used last week (think it was this thread).

Hypothesis testing and DOE was used quite a bit in my Systems Engineering coursework, and obviously LSSBB certification back in the day. If you use it on a regular basis, becomes quite east and useful. It’s been a few years though.

Heartless wrote:

Melted ice cream physique wrote:

Look no further than Singapore. As of November, 2020 there had been just 26 deaths. Around June/July of 2021 the government went crazy with their vaccination drive. At end of July, deaths were 38. In August the government boasted to the world that Singapore had the highest vaccination rate at 80%. Then cases started to increase. September was worse still with more cases and more deaths starting to get reported. Then in October and November it got really, really bad. The monthly death rate from October and November was more than 200 times higher than the average death rate through the first 18 months of the pandemic. At first they continued to try to shame the unvaccinated by reporting each day how many of that day’s dead were unvaxxed or only partially vaxxed. But by the start of October a clear trend had emerged… the percentage of those dying that were fully vaxxed was increasing and the percentage of unvaxxed was dropping like a stone. On October 19th the daily percent dying that were unvaxxed matched the percent in the population that were unvaxxed… and the trend was continuing in the wrong direction for the government. So, on October 20, they completely stopped reporting the vaccination status of cases, hospitalization, and death.

Harambe / 2600 guy come in and claims this isn’t true in 3…..2…..

Melted ice cream physique wrote:

You have shared cumulative statistics that date back to the start of the pandemic 28 months ago. My post discussed daily data as reported by the governments and the inexplicable 200 fold increase in monthly hospitalizations and monthly deaths only after the country had reached 80% vaccination. Your statistics lump single vaxxed and people that did not make it past the magic 3 week post shot window to be classified as fully vaxxed into the unvaxxed category. For goodness sake, boosters have only been available to the entire population for a few weeks. Yet the death rate for the “boosted” is included along side the unvaccinated as if it is remotely meaningful. Hence, you have posted a link to very skewed and meaningless data. But, I’m an engineer and I appreciate that your math and critical thinking skills are below mine, so I’m happy to educate you on the difference and why it matters.

At the start of this pandemic I was very afraid and I believed most of what the government told me. But now that five people that I know (or knew) die unexpectedly, suddenly, and shockingly, coupled with the constantly changing messaging (indicating that the “experts” don’t know what they are talking about) and the aggressiveness with which any low cost treatments are attacked (if vaccination was safe, effective, and necessary there would be no need to be so massively defensive… the science would speak for itself), I have changed my mind.

How often does your ego allow you to use these five little words, “I have changed my mind.”? I suspect never. And so, as Mark Twain observed, “Never argue with a fool. He’ll drag you down to his level and beat you with experience.”

Heartless wrote:

Harambe wrote:

What are you even arguing against? That the vaccine is not 100% effective? Congrats? Nobody said this.

Hospitals were overwhelmed with antivaxxers during the delta wave. Since then vaccines, prior infections, and better treatments have decoupled cases from hospitalizations.

Statement one was never said.

Statement two was true.

Congrats, you've smugly argued for pages against imagined opponents AND proved your complete mathematical incompetence at the same time. A remarkable effort.

Projecting exactly what you’ve done onto me, you POS! Typical.

Statement 1 was said by Fauxci and Biden at the top, and many, many others down the chain. “You get the vaccine, you won’t get / spread the virus… ok, we’ll you won’t be hospitalized… ok, you won’t die.” FALSE.

Statement two hasn’t been true for a very, very long time, and in many places it was never true. Omicron seems to have finally saved us from this BS.

2600 bro wrote:

Heartless wrote:

Projecting exactly what you’ve done onto me, you POS! Typical.

Statement 1 was said by Fauxci and Biden at the top, and many, many others down the chain. “You get the vaccine, you won’t get / spread the virus… ok, we’ll you won’t be hospitalized… ok, you won’t die.” FALSE.

Statement two hasn’t been true for a very, very long time, and in many places it was never true. Omicron seems to have finally saved us from this BS.

Lmao no one EVER spoke in absolutes “you won’t XYZ…”

you just need this to be true for your narrative to hold any weight.

I work in the biomedical sciences. Everyone was talking about how 95% effective vaccines are amazing for < 1 year of development. People looked at the Kaplan Meier curves. Everyone understood no vaccine is 100% effective.

Vaccines reduce risk of death by > 15X and > 20X in most populations. That’s what matters, not what you think a scary Democrat may have said. Lmao.