This thread was deleted by a volunteer moderator. I certainly don't want a thread this big deleted so I've restored. THat being said, this thread has served it's purpose. I've closed it to new posts.
We have a new 2024 vaccine thread here. New people don't need to try to wade through 20,000 posts to figure out what is going on.
"The vaccine is not 100% effective" is your argument. You are a generational visionary. Blasting apart years of propaganda. What would we do without you.
Well, provided that you aren't just making up this data. Which you obviously are.
I’m absolutely not making it up. And I’ll continue to post it, as I have for weeks now. I strongly encourage you all to search your local hospital system data on their website.
Not once was I trying to convey anything more than raw data that disproves the two most basic claims from the Covidian tribe. Yet, look how long it’s taken for you to admit they were false.
If you weren’t such an insufferable DB, I’d be (probably many people on here) more willing to work with you. But given that you couldn’t understand the basic FACTS that can he derived from JUST the regular counts of hospitalized Covid patients, I have little confidence that you’d be honest in your contributions.
Without a link to the data we simply cannot believe you. It's a pretty bare minimum standard on an anonymous forum.
The raw data does not disprove any of the claims, as I've repeatedly explained to you. You must control for confounding effects. See the Israeli data as an illuminating example.
Unless your argument is just "the vaccine is not 100% effective" in which case. Congrats. Pfizer admitted that in November of 2020. You've almost caught up.
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Why are your links all so old? They’re all from mid-2021? Do you have any recent data?
And even that Israeli link was written with a specific premise in mind. He wasn’t just analyzing data; he was trying counter other conclusions of articles he had read using the data.
So, the Israeli data was similar, but their level of vaccination was and still is magnitudes higher than anywhere in the US. As I said, vaccination rate is ~60-65% in MI depending on the data source. Israel got up to well over 90% if I’m not mistaken. And they still had huge spikes since the time of the links you sent, which is why they’re now on booster # what now, 5? 6?
Also, their “severe” in your article was what, hospitalized? ICU? Hospitalized vs ICU vs Ventilator is the breakdown I provide, with the unvax vs vax Data all being similar for the last 6 months (so mainly omicron phase).
None of this changes the FACT that those two statements were false from day one.
Why are your links all so old? They’re all from mid-2021? Do you have any recent data?
And even that Israeli link was written with a specific premise in mind. He wasn’t just analyzing data; he was trying counter other conclusions of articles he had read using the data.
So, the Israeli data was similar, but their level of vaccination was and still is magnitudes higher than anywhere in the US. As I said, vaccination rate is ~60-65% in MI depending on the data source. Israel got up to well over 90% if I’m not mistaken. And they still had huge spikes since the time of the links you sent, which is why they’re now on booster # what now, 5? 6?
Also, their “severe” in your article was what, hospitalized? ICU? Hospitalized vs ICU vs Ventilator is the breakdown I provide, with the unvax vs vax Data all being similar for the last 6 months (so mainly omicron phase).
None of this changes the FACT that those two statements were false from day one.
the US over 65 vax rate is much much higher - the lowest state is Arkansas at 80%. CA and FL are at 91% etc.
You simply must understand Simpson’s paradox to continue with this discussion.
you sound like the know-it-all in 7th grade math who is confused by letters in his equations.
Why are your links all so old? They’re all from mid-2021? Do you have any recent data?
And even that Israeli link was written with a specific premise in mind. He wasn’t just analyzing data; he was trying counter other conclusions of articles he had read using the data.
So, the Israeli data was similar, but their level of vaccination was and still is magnitudes higher than anywhere in the US. As I said, vaccination rate is ~60-65% in MI depending on the data source. Israel got up to well over 90% if I’m not mistaken. And they still had huge spikes since the time of the links you sent, which is why they’re now on booster # what now, 5? 6?
Also, their “severe” in your article was what, hospitalized? ICU? Hospitalized vs ICU vs Ventilator is the breakdown I provide, with the unvax vs vax Data all being similar for the last 6 months (so mainly omicron phase).
None of this changes the FACT that those two statements were false from day one.
Thank you for finally engaging with your base rate errors. However, you immediately ran into Simpson's paradox! I've tried to warn you about this. Just read and try and grasp those two confounders and you'll be most of the way there.
Neither of those two statements were false. You are arguing against a strawman of "100% vax efficacy" at this point.
Do you take issue with analyzing data with a hypothesis in mind? The dude (a highly qualified stats professor) identifies the key confounders in the raw data and shows how controlling for those confounders inverts the effect (vax on death). That is interesting to a STEM brain, I'd imagine!
Why are your links all so old? They’re all from mid-2021? Do you have any recent data?
And even that Israeli link was written with a specific premise in mind. He wasn’t just analyzing data; he was trying counter other conclusions of articles he had read using the data.
So, the Israeli data was similar, but their level of vaccination was and still is magnitudes higher than anywhere in the US. As I said, vaccination rate is ~60-65% in MI depending on the data source. Israel got up to well over 90% if I’m not mistaken. And they still had huge spikes since the time of the links you sent, which is why they’re now on booster # what now, 5? 6?
Also, their “severe” in your article was what, hospitalized? ICU? Hospitalized vs ICU vs Ventilator is the breakdown I provide, with the unvax vs vax Data all being similar for the last 6 months (so mainly omicron phase).
None of this changes the FACT that those two statements were false from day one.
the US over 65 vax rate is much much higher - the lowest state is Arkansas at 80%. CA and FL are at 91% etc.
You simply must understand Simpson’s paradox to continue with this discussion.
you sound like the know-it-all in 7th grade math who is confused by letters in his equations.
Ok- entry to the discussion, however, is much simpler than that. We must have correct assessments of the following two statements (true/false):
“If you get the vaccine, you won’t get the virus / won’t spread the virus / won’t be hospitalized / won’t die.”
”The hospitals are ‘overwhelmed’ with the unvaccinated.”
Hey. I just thought I would check in on this crazy thread. It has been months for me
Anybody still taking the horse dewormer?
Funny enough, our latest antivaxxer was just telling us how IVM definitely worked. Right on cue!
The age-old LRC tactic of a planted post. Well done sir!
And I know 4 people that got ivermectin (from America’s Frontline Doctors) and it absolutely worked. Taken on first day after positive test. Better in under a week.
The others that also had monoclonal antibodies were better in 3 days.
Funny enough, our latest antivaxxer was just telling us how IVM definitely worked. Right on cue!
The age-old LRC tactic of a planted post. Well done sir!
And I know 4 people that got ivermectin (from America’s Frontline Doctors) and it absolutely worked. Taken on first day after positive test. Better in under a week.
The others that also had monoclonal antibodies were better in 3 days.
Ah the grifters who used fraudluent data to hype up IVM and now sell $1500 telemedcine consults to antivaxxers? Your friends must be Big Smart.
IVM does not work. There is not a shred of quality evidence that supports its use against COVID. Even a non-STEM gorilla brain can see that.
Hey. I just thought I would check in on this crazy thread. It has been months for me
Anybody still taking the horse dewormer?
Funny enough, our latest antivaxxer was just telling us how IVM definitely worked. Right on cue!
I’ve been vaccinated, DB. The fact that you even say that shows you’re an F’n lunatic. I told you I was vaccinated (not boosted, and won’t be). My statements are all true, supported by basic data.
Look no further than Singapore. As of November, 2020 there had been just 26 deaths. Around June/July of 2021 the government went crazy with their vaccination drive. At end of July, deaths were 38. In August the government boasted to the world that Singapore had the highest vaccination rate at 80%. Then cases started to increase. September was worse still with more cases and more deaths starting to get reported. Then in October and November it got really, really bad. The monthly death rate from October and November was more than 200 times higher than the average death rate through the first 18 months of the pandemic. At first they continued to try to shame the unvaccinated by reporting each day how many of that day’s dead were unvaxxed or only partially vaxxed. But by the start of October a clear trend had emerged… the percentage of those dying that were fully vaxxed was increasing and the percentage of unvaxxed was dropping like a stone. On October 19th the daily percent dying that were unvaxxed matched the percent in the population that were unvaxxed… and the trend was continuing in the wrong direction for the government. So, on October 20, they completely stopped reporting the vaccination status of cases, hospitalization, and death.
Why are your links all so old? They’re all from mid-2021? Do you have any recent data?
And even that Israeli link was written with a specific premise in mind. He wasn’t just analyzing data; he was trying counter other conclusions of articles he had read using the data.
So, the Israeli data was similar, but their level of vaccination was and still is magnitudes higher than anywhere in the US. As I said, vaccination rate is ~60-65% in MI depending on the data source. Israel got up to well over 90% if I’m not mistaken. And they still had huge spikes since the time of the links you sent, which is why they’re now on booster # what now, 5? 6?
Also, their “severe” in your article was what, hospitalized? ICU? Hospitalized vs ICU vs Ventilator is the breakdown I provide, with the unvax vs vax Data all being similar for the last 6 months (so mainly omicron phase).
None of this changes the FACT that those two statements were false from day one.
Thank you for finally engaging with your base rate errors. However, you immediately ran into Simpson's paradox! I've tried to warn you about this. Just read and try and grasp those two confounders and you'll be most of the way there.
Neither of those two statements were false. You are arguing against a strawman of "100% vax efficacy" at this point.
Do you take issue with analyzing data with a hypothesis in mind? The dude (a highly qualified stats professor) identifies the key confounders in the raw data and shows how controlling for those confounders inverts the effect (vax on death). That is interesting to a STEM brain, I'd imagine!
I explained what the P-value was and how it was used last week (think it was this thread).
Hypothesis testing and DOE was used quite a bit in my Systems Engineering coursework, and obviously LSSBB certification back in the day. If you use it on a regular basis, becomes quite east and useful. It’s been a few years though.
