https://www.ajc.com/education/georgia-withholds-school-covid-19-counts-from-public/MSVEFPYMIJAMDO4TRMVPR2SWUE/
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Wear a mask
Social distance
Wash your hands
GET TESTED
Wear a mask
Social distance
Wash your hands
GET TESTED
According to rt.live, Georgia currently has the lowest Rt value of all states (0.86).
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Article is in French, but about a third of the big clusters found to be driving the big surge in cases in France traced back to schools. Schools are ahead of business as a driver of COVID clusters in France. The whole "kids don't get it/kids don't transmit it" argument is falling apart.
My wife works in a big school district in Houston. She has been staying home on CARES Act leave. Her district is currently about 50% face to face 50% virtual. She saw an email from her supervisor today to the other employees in her group (she is an SLP) telling them to bring their own PPE this week because the district's PPE order has not come in and they have run out of everything.
Most of the big districts in TX are all virtual until mid October. These districts are even worse at procuring supplies.
Texas seems to have bottomed out at around 3k new cases. Houston area hospitalizations have held at around 90 new cases a day. This is double what it was before the summer surge. Community spread of the virus is still significant. I think the next uptick in cases will begin in mid October and will take off mid November.
Gwinnett County Schools had 26 students test positive for COVID-19 during the past 7 days. Previous weeks there were 43 and 28 positive student cases.
Gwinnett County School System has approximately 180,000 students. Cannot find stats on percentage opting for in-person learning, but if it is like other GA districts, it is approximately 120,000-135,000.
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Precious Roy wrote:
Article is in French, but about a third of the big clusters found to be driving the big surge in cases in France traced back to schools. Schools are ahead of business as a driver of COVID clusters in France. The whole "kids don't get it/kids don't transmit it" argument is falling apart.
I thought all the death summer camps in Georgia a few months back was supposed to show
that the kids were going to die and take everyone else with them. Whatever happened?
Kids can catch it from adults. Thing is, nothing will happen--unlike the flu (or even
the multitude of other germs they spread around and give to their parents), they don't
get sick and the virus tends to stop right there.
Here is what else we found.
1. Outbreaks in childcare and schools are driven by community transmission
2. School infections are much lower than in the community
3. Most infections in schools and childcare centres were well contained
4. Households are the main source of infection, not schools
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Georgia is currently at 75 weekly cases/100,000 residents. Halfway between Orange and Yellow Zone and nearly at the level to be able to travel to NJ/NY ( 70 weekly cases/100,000).
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Spyke wrote:
57 deaths reported today in Georgia. 1000 new cases the day before. 7 day death average highest since re-opening.
Are we starting to see the signs of the predicted spike?
Not trying to start controversy here...genuinely asking...now that we are just over 4 months from the start of this thread, what's the answer to the OP's question? What do the numbers from the last 4 months show us? Can we make any kind of generalization?
Following Up wrote:
Spyke wrote:
57 deaths reported today in Georgia. 1000 new cases the day before. 7 day death average highest since re-opening.
Are we starting to see the signs of the predicted spike?
Not trying to start controversy here...genuinely asking...now that we are just over 4 months from the start of this thread, what's the answer to the OP's question? What do the numbers from the last 4 months show us? Can we make any kind of generalization?
That COVID fatalists are hyperbolic.
Following Up wrote:Not trying to start controversy here...genuinely asking...now that we are just over 4 months from the start of this thread, what's the answer to the OP's question? What do the numbers from the last 4 months show us? Can we make any kind of generalization?
Here is what has happened in Georgia for cases and fatalities since the thread was started in 21 May (which I have marked with a black dashed line):
https://ibb.co/b3dx4VrCases rose dramatically soon after, It took a while for deaths to catch up with cases, but they did eventually. Trends are better now.
People are free to generalize as they like. I see needless illness and death in that graph, courtesy of the governor of Georgia. You and others may see something else entirely.
Following Up wrote:
Spyke wrote:
57 deaths reported today in Georgia. 1000 new cases the day before. 7 day death average highest since re-opening.
Are we starting to see the signs of the predicted spike?
Not trying to start controversy here...genuinely asking...now that we are just over 4 months from the start of this thread, what's the answer to the OP's question? What do the numbers from the last 4 months show us? Can we make any kind of generalization?
I used to be a professional musician. We had a saying that if you arrived for rehearsal on time, you were late.
What has become clear about the summer surge in the southern states is that if you wait to see what happens after cases start climbing, you will be too late to stop a major outbreak. TX, FL, GA, etc. all had a moment when cases started climbing and their governors chose not to act. In Texas, that resulted in 13,000 people dying.
What is also clear is that the level of community spread must be extremely low to be able to safely reopen and being able to contain new outbreaks. Australia, New Zealand, S. Korea, China and Vietnam were able to quickly and effectively contain recent outbreaks through brief and targeted shutdown measures and testing, tracing and isolation. If you get your cases as close to zero as possible and then have good surveillance testing, you can stay in control of the virus and avoid large outbreaks. The alternative is a constant cycle of major outbreaks, near collapse of the health system, increased restrictions, gradual improvement, reopening too early and repeating the process.
Remember when the Georgia Gov. Kemp fought to keep masks off in Atlanta ?? It feels like another attempt to suppress Black GA. voters by exposure to death and sickness ! Great guy, right Kelly L. ?!?
Following Up wrote:
Spyke wrote:
57 deaths reported today in Georgia. 1000 new cases the day before. 7 day death average highest since re-opening.
Are we starting to see the signs of the predicted spike?
Not trying to start controversy here...genuinely asking...now that we are just over 4 months from the start of this thread, what's the answer to the OP's question? What do the numbers from the last 4 months show us? Can we make any kind of generalization?
May21 (date thread created) 7-day average for cases was 676/day.
May25 7-day average for cases had dropped to 608/day.
Over the next 7 weeks, the 7-day average for cases rose each day until the peak on Jul11 at 4425.
Since July11 peak, 7-day average cases have dropped each day (except 1) for the last 10 weeks to the 14-day confidence window. Cases have dropped 72% down to 1248 (Sep16). All current indicators show a continued drop in cases to today (12 weeks post-peak).
May21 (date thread created) 7-day average for deaths was 26/day.
Jun20 7-day average for deaths had dropped to 17/day.
Over the next 7 weeks, the 7-day average for deaths rose most days until the peak on Aug07 at 72/day.
After Aug07 peak, 7-day average deaths remained steady until Aug14. Since then, the 7-day average for deaths has dropped for 5 weeks to the 14-day confidence window. Deaths have dropped 60% down to 29 (Sep16). All current indicators show a continued drop in deaths to today (7 weeks post-peak).
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interested reader wrote:
Following Up wrote:Not trying to start controversy here...genuinely asking...now that we are just over 4 months from the start of this thread, what's the answer to the OP's question? What do the numbers from the last 4 months show us? Can we make any kind of generalization?
Here is what has happened in Georgia for cases and fatalities since the thread was started in 21 May (which I have marked with a black dashed line):
https://ibb.co/b3dx4Vr
I'm advising you to utilize the data at GADPH to create your graph. Your data visualization uses the date deaths /cases have been reported. It is susceptible to data dumps and delays in reporting - which happen quite often in Georgia's (and other state's) reported data. Therefore, your representation of the case/death status for Georgia is highly inaccurate. For a much more accurate representation, you need to utilize the date of onset for cases and the date of death.
The graph presented gives a very distorted representation of the pandemic in Georgia.
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https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-reportbrazen2 wrote:]I'm advising you to utilize the data at GADPH to create your graph....
The graph presented gives a very distorted representation of the pandemic in Georgia.
That advice is free I take it?
The graphs are admittedly reported cases and fatalities, and subject to fluctuations, some - but not all - of which is remove by 7-day smoothing. The dip in the middle is an obvious example of somebody juking the stats. Still, the curves do NOT give a particularly distorted view of the pandemic, at least not to the informed reader who onderstands the basic uncertainties associated with the data.
If you have versions of these curves based on data from your preferred source I’d be delighted to see the plots.
interested on the ipad wrote:
brazen2 wrote:]I'm advising you to utilize the data at GADPH to create your graph....
The graph presented gives a very distorted representation of the pandemic in Georgia.
That advice is free I take it?
The graphs are admittedly reported cases and fatalities, and subject to fluctuations, some - but not all - of which is remove by 7-day smoothing. The dip in the middle is an obvious example of somebody juking the stats. Still, the curves do NOT give a particularly distorted view of the pandemic, at least not to the informed reader who onderstands the basic uncertainties associated with the data.
An informed reader understands that the basic uncertainties of using date of report makes your graph a poor representation of the pandemic in Georgia.
Smoothing the data by using 7-day averages does little to help with your inaccuracies. I will use an example from yesterday's data:
1) ~11% of yesterday's cases were tests completed over a month ago.
2) More than half of the reported deaths yesterday were deaths that occurred more than two weeks ago. Two of those deaths happened in June.
3)Testing data dumps from four NE GA counties over the past few weeks have greatly skewed positivity rates, if one just looks at the reported date. Another dump of mostly positive tests occurred yesterday which resulted in a total positivity rate of 14.9%. However, when you look at the raw data, 4 GA counties which use a particular lab have been reporting old tests. Yesterday's reported positivity rate for those counties was 35%. The rest of Georgia's reported positivity was 5.5%.
In terms of your visualization, there are too many errors to cover here, but I'll point out a few:
1) Your graph shows a couple of days where the 7-day average for deaths/million was 0. There have not been any such days in Georgia using the date of report nor using the actual date of death. The lowest during that period for the 7-day average was ~1/million.
2) Your data undercounts the peak of cases in Georgia by ~20% and the timing of the peak by weeks. The same inaccuracies exist for deaths and the timing of increases and decreases in cases/deaths.
If you have versions of these curves based on data from your preferred source I’d be delighted to see the plots.
Re-read my previous post. I provided you both the source of the data and a link to it.
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Social distance
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brazen2 wrote:I wrote:
If you have versions of these curves based on data from your preferred source I’d be delighted to see the plots.
You wrote:
Re-read my previous post. I provided you both the source of the data and a link to it.
I already spend far too much time on this and am not going to be pulling more data to make plots you think will be useful. I am, however, happy to look at the data if plotted in a meaningful way by you or somebody else.
The fact that there are errors in the data I plotted is almost entirely irrelevant; everyone who uses these data understands what they mean, and more importantly, what they don't mean. The errors you've flagged are minor distinctions that don't make a difference in overall meaning. The general sense of the situation is clear, and may be refined to some degree by using "more accurate" data. If the is blatantly wrong, please do plot up your data for comparison.