Things have improved substantially in Texas since July. Hospitalizations in Houston are down from a peak of about 350 7 day moving ave to 80-90. New cases have flattened to about 3500 a day statewide. September has mostly been flat and seems to mark an end of steady improvement from the peak in mid July. Our dummy governor kept bars closed but let restaurants and other venues open to 75% capacity.
The state health department released almost 14,000 positive cases to the Houston area case count that had not previously been reported. That is equal to about 7% of the total cases reported from the beginning of the pandemic and is about two weeks worth of new cases. It is crazy that so many cases did not get reported until just now. Previous explanations of these sort of mass releases were that private labs had coding errors.
Most of the big school districts have been all virtual the first six weeks of school. Others have given parents the choice of in person or virtual. Seems like it is about 50/50 in lower income districts and 80% in person and 20% virtual in wealthier suburban districts. Absent a change in the current trajectory of the virus, all the big districts (Dallas, Houston, San Antonio) will start offering in person instruction mid October.
I have generally seen very good compliance with mask wearing in places like grocery stores, etc. I am seeing a lot more people going out to restaurants and eating indoors. A lot of bars have retooled themselves as restaurants by having a food truck parked outside. A lot of bars are still closed.
I think we have about 4-6 weeks before cases start to climb again as the weather turns cooler and transmission in schools and colleges starts to really kick in. There will be a lot more kids in school starting mid October than are currently in school. From there, I think there will be another big surge in cases. A lot of the summer surge was in low income communities of color. The more affluent, white suburban communities did not see nearly as much infection. Schools, restaurants and social gatherings could change that this fall and winter.