57 COVID deaths in GA today: Post-opening spike starting?

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

I've seen deaths charted this way for Florida but not cases. In Florida, this is definitely a good week for cases and positive % rate. Makes me think in a month 50-75 deaths will be the norm not 150-250.

Thanks. I just wonder why Georgia does it and everyone else does it differently.

The Unkle wrote:

Six months and counting and still don't know a soul who has gotten sick from this.

Nor does anyone I talk to about this.

Sure does exist in the media though.

24/7 fear.

Do you live under a rock? Not know anyone or not talk to anyone?

Never heard of that school. But if the descriptions he gave are true. It may not be a Christian school. But it’s not a secular school either. Sounds like a non denominational. We have a lot around where I live.

democrats love plandemics wrote:

Democrat media screams that coronavirus is surging.

It’s not.

https://twitter.com/ClayTravis/status/1296101341455097856?s=20

Its not going away. That’s for sure.

It surged in TX, GA, FL, and AZ recently. Maybe on decline in those spots.

democrats love plandemics wrote:

Democrat media screams that coronavirus is surging.

It’s not.

https://twitter.com/ClayTravis/status/1296101341455097856?s=20

200 people died from COVID 19 in FL today. The fact that it was worse in NY and NJ doesn't mean that everything is peachy in FL.

The drop in cases is largely due to restrictions put in place in the big metro areas. Draw a line on the date Miami-Dade, Broward, etc. put in restrictions and watch the cases drop after that.

And the media isn't screaming that the virus is surging. The media is accurately reporting that new cases have declined, but the southern states are quickly overtaking NY and NJ in cases per capita.

Theros wrote:

Fat hurts wrote:

Yes they do. There is some token religious stuff, but the student body is not overtly Christian like in a true Christian school.

Your contention is that Christianity had something to do with the Lovett outbreak. Given the actual makeup of the student body, that is preposterous.

Never heard of that school. But if the descriptions he gave are true. It may not be a Christian school. But it’s not a secular school either. Sounds like a non denominational. We have a lot around where I live.

I'm saying that the student body is secular. That's what makes it a secular school. Precious Roy's description of expensive Atlanta prep schools is pretty accurate, though I suspect that mandatory random drug testing may have stemmed drug use in recent years.

These type schools, including Lovett, have many families who are non-devout Christian, Jewish, Muslim, and families with no faith tradition at all.

brazen2 says the Lovett outbreak can be blamed on Christianity. Given the makeup of the student body, this idea is preposterous.

To echo this point I subscribe to NY Times and Adios newsletters and both have cited frequently and optimistically the decline in cases in the Southeast. Clay Travis’ point is also dumb because deaths are a lagging statistic. We have 3 deadly weeks to come and Florida will be more than half of NY’s 25K confirmed toll in about 2 weeks...From there, you’re getting past the boasting about fraction idiocy even if you’re disingenuously using the NY probable death metric, which would increase FL’s toll as well.

8/19 Data

Unquestionably we're on a stretch of improvement in most places.

In terms of the 7 day rolling average of daily deaths.

US: Lowest since August 8

World: Lowest since August 3

India is the bad news - hitting new highs almost every day, up to 979 deaths per day, about the same as Brazil.

Brazil continues its very long plateau of around 1,000 deaths per day. At least since May. Brazil doesn't have a curve...weird, I wonder why. Just consistent numbers week after week. Everywhere else I've tracked has a slope.

In the US, the four problem states are each past peak. Combined, their 7 day average is falling and the lowest since 7/29.

On the political battle...7 of the 10 worst per capita death totals are Dem states. 3 are Repub states. (LA MS AZ). But red america is catching up...places 15-21 are all R states. And of course Europe has hardly any deaths anymore, even as the US has 1,000 per day. Ouch.

26 days of decreasing cases outside 14-day confidence window (Jul11-Aug06). Short-term forecast shows continued decrease in cases.

As of Aug06 (14-day window), cases down 46% from peak on Jul11.

Wear a mask

Social distance

Wash your hands

GET TESTED

South Korea not immune to the ignorance of religious groups in the fight against COVID.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/19/asia/south-korea-coronavirus-sarang-jeil-moon-intl-hnk/index.html

As the scandal develops, many in the country would be forgiven for thinking "we've been here before."

In February, it was the Shincheonji religious group, thousands of whom were infected with the virus in the south eastern city of Daegu, setting the stage for an outbreak that raged throughout the country. The church was accused by officials of refusing to cooperate with the authorities, while members accused both the government and the press of defamation and religious persecution.

Now, history appears to be repeating itself with the Sarang-jeil Church in Seoul.

"While they believe in God as a loving god, they more so believe in God as a healer," he said. "They generally believe that faith can resolve the issue of disease."

Wear a mask

Social distance

Wash your hands

GET TESTED

agip wrote:

. And of course Europe has hardly any deaths anymore, even as the US has 1,000 per day. Ouch.

Im not complaining, but the plummetting mortality rate in Europe is very strange. I see Spain hit 127 deaths yesterday, but this looks like it should be a reporting thing. Hope so.

In terms of new cases and potential for second spike; The UK position is especially encouraging - we seem to be able to hold it at about 1000 cases a day. Italy is maybe controlling a second spike, Spain too but too early to tell, and France really needs solid improvement - fast.

But still a long long road to travel. I cant beleive cruises are re starting. the lawyers must be rubbing their hands in glee.

The Unkle wrote:

Six months and counting and still don't know a soul who has gotten sick from this.

Nor does anyone I talk to about this.

This is mostly because those of us in cities that were hit hard early lost family/friends/coworkers/acquaintances/loved ones, saw how terrible COVID-19 could be, and (mostly) stayed at home and eschewed travel around the country--thus slowing the spread to the rest of the U.S. and giving medical personnel in those secondary areas a chance to profit from the hard-won lessons about care/treatment/prevention that were learned in places like NYC.

You're welcome.

Most at risk continue to be hit hard.

Ages 70+ account for 9% of cases

70+ account for 31% of hospitalizations

70+ account for 65% of deaths

80+ account for 4% of cases

80+ account for 14% of hospitalizations

80+ account for 38% of deaths

90+ account for 13% of deaths

Of deaths of residents under 70, 73% had at least one comorbidity

Wear a mask

Social distance

Wash your hands

GET TESTED

Continue to shelter-in-place if high-risk

While not as bad as the Shincheonji, which is more cult than church, Sarang-jeil Church is pretty out there. It is a mega church in S. Korea and its leader is very political. However, unlike in the US, churches like Sarang are on the fringe in S. Korea.

Wear a mask

Social distance

Wash your hands

GET TESTED

brazen2 wrote:

Most at risk continue to be hit hard.

Ages 70+ account for 9% of cases

70+ account for 31% of hospitalizations

70+ account for 65% of deaths

80+ account for 4% of cases

80+ account for 14% of hospitalizations

80+ account for 38% of deaths

90+ account for 13% of deaths

Of deaths of residents under 70, 73% had at least one comorbidity

Wear a mask

Social distance

Wash your hands

GET TESTED

Continue to shelter-in-place if high-risk

Carlos del Rio is another good person to follow on twitter. The emerging conundrum from GA, is whether declining cases are an indication of real progress against the virus or are the result of declining testing.

It is also interesting to see people claiming success in GA, FL, etc. when cases decline, while seeing stories about new outbreaks in Europe. France is getting 2-3k new cases a day after being below 1,000 for most of May through mid July. Georgia is coming down from a 7 day average of 3,500+ new cases a day to @2,500. 67 million people live in France. About 10.5 million live in Georgia. If Georgia had new cases on the same per capita rate as France, they would be down in the low 400s.

People not getting tested in Georgia is a significant problem. Cases have gone down at a much faster rate than testing numbers have. In addition, positivity has gone down 50+%. Although, the recent reduction in testing numbers has caused this the level off at around 9% as of late.

A testing facility in Atlanta opened a week ago with the capacity to test 5000 per day with turn-around time of 48-72 hours (We've used it twice and got results in <48 hours). This free testing facility and the numerous mobile testing facilities that have been placed in high COVID areas have been greatly under-utilized. People aren't getting tested like they should if we are to control the disease. It's ridiculous that we still have people discouraging others from getting tested.

Also, the testing number reported by the GADPH are incomplete. GADPH only reports on ELR testing. Non-ELR positives go into the counts for cases, but not for PCR/Molecular testing numbers or positivity rate. The Non-ELRs are only required to report positive results, not negatives. Lately, we've been getting 500-1000+ cases from unreported testing, but those numbers (neg & pos) and not reflected in the testing numbers. For example, yesterday, there were over 700 cases (30%) from unreported testing.

Luckily, the current hospitalizations and new hospitalizations are following the downward trend in cases. Since both those metrics are going down, it looks like the decrease in cases in Georgia is not just a reflection of the decrease in testing numbers.

I haven't seen anyone claiming victory for GA or FL (nor anywhere else). Georgia's highest 7-day average was actually 4300/day and after the 2 week preliminary data becomes more solid, will be below 2000 for today's date. Like you said, still not even in the ball park of European per capita numbers. We're moving in the right direction, but have a long road ahead.

There is tremendous work to do in GA, FL, TX, CA, and the rest of the US.

Wear a mask

Social distance

Wash your hands

GET TESTED

Precious Roy wrote:

It is also interesting to see people claiming success in GA, FL, etc. when cases decline, while seeing stories about new outbreaks in Europe. France is getting 2-3k new cases a day after being below 1,000 for most of May through mid July. Georgia is coming down from a 7 day average of 3,500+ new cases a day to @2,500. 67 million people live in France. About 10.5 million live in Georgia. If Georgia had new cases on the same per capita rate as France, they would be down in the low 400s.

Yeah, I completely agree with you. They're also very alarmist in Europe about these relatively small increases, which is ironic because that's what many accuse the MSM of being here for being alarmed by developments that are far worse (like what was happening in Florida in late June). It is treated significantly harsher in Europe. Like in New York, we are very comfortable with 500-700 new infections a day. That is fine. Positivity has been trending downward and is below 1% ~ deaths are down to 5-10 a day. Still, if you put the infection numbers into France that's 1500-2000 cases a day ~ nearing their "outbreak." Yes, I suspect NY tests a lot more than just about anyone, but still...

The people doing victory laps over Florida averaging 4,000 cases and having a positivity rate of ~10-14% (the real rate, not the doctored one) need to relax if they're really going to compare us to the rest of the world and their "outbreaks." Our president is maybe the worst offender, though. He's referred to New Zealand having a "terrible" outbreak when they've recorded 22, yes 22 cases in two days.

brazen2 wrote:

I haven't seen anyone claiming victory for GA or FL (nor anywhere else).

There is, unfortunately, a COVID-denier echo chamber that is doing this. Alex Berenson, Clay Travis, and their fans probably most prominently.

This is a tweet from just a few mins ago. The peak of this "outbreak" appears to be over. That being said, him accusing the media of fear porn when it is likely that by the end of September that 10,000 Floridians will have died from COVID from June on (number is already at 6,000+) when the media raised alarms is just absurd.