Not So Good Wigins wrote:
Yes. Putin is a pathological liar. In addition to being an autocratic psychopath.
Well, Putin put forth two diametrically opposite statements. One said that Ukraine could not exist without Russia and that he was going to right the wrongs of the Bolsheviks that allowed Ukraine to exist as a separate country. The other said, that the 70,000 troops he sent to encircle Kyiv were just a clever ruse to weaken the Ukraine.
One of these was spelled out in a 5000 word essay published last year. The other was a brief statement put out after Russia got defeated in their attempt to capture Kyiv. You can pick which one you want to believe, but anybody with more than 4 functioning synapses in their brain knows that Russia getting their a$es kicked and running back to Belarus was not what Putin envisioned when he sent the 35th CAA into Ukraine.
Even if I take for granted that you have read Putin's 5000 words essay and that you have fully understood it, without previous bias, it still could be just an elaborate decoy in grand scheme. Compared to years and decades of soft power (and not so soft) pressure, all carefully constructed wordings and spins off, one essay, even if 5000 wirds long, does not seem so serious, as to be taken literally, word for word. It surely was an element in conditioning Russian public for what was inevitable. Inevitable as far as for Russian think tank. For Western think tank it was not inevitable, but they surely do not give a f***, as long as Russia will suffer. Ukraine could only decide which side to take. They could give up to Russia, avoid war casualties, but become target for Western sanctions, or continue to play puppet of The West, who likely pushed them to accept war option, promising some kind of protection and economic support (probably IMF loans to enslave them, with EU membership as a carrot on a stick just enough long).
Anyway, to me, as relatively not interested bystander, occupation and destruction of Ukraine does not seem as a real goal. Neutral, demilitarised Ukraine does. Ukraine seem willing to trade destruction for remaining a puppet of The West. Russia can not stop, The West could not hope for more.
As far as Kiew, I think Russia had a plan with options. If they can take it in "a day", with 1000 troops deployed, great. If not, keep Ukrainian army busy while they secure Donbas, Lugansk and so on. If in the process Ukraine give up on Kiev, also great. We will see if there will be serious battle for Donbas and Lugansk. Only losing here will be defeat in Russian mind, everything else they see as extra points.
