Northerner - Fantastic job in the Copenhagen half. 1:22:52 is super solid at any age, and I definitely like your odds for a sub-3. I'm also 47, and I've been taking my easy days seriously, too. For the most part I've been keeping them right around 8 mins/mile. Since I'm doing the Jack Daniels 2Q program, I just have 2 "big" days a week and I think that works pretty well for me...at least it has in the past. I haven't sub-3ed in 3 years (due to injury and a late build-up), so I've added more easy miles to the regimen I followed 3 years ago to see if that helps me out.
runnerchef - I've always performed better at shorter distances than the marathon distance, and so my predicted marathon time would be overly optimistic if I based it on a 10k time. Do you typically use a 10k to predict your marathon goal time? Regardless, you're gonna hit sub-3 like a beast. The calculator at
https://runsmartproject.com/calculator/
says your 37:20 is good for 2:52:30. This calculator says 2:51:44:
https://lukehumphreyrunning.com/hmmcalculator/race_equivalency_calculator.php
.
OK, here's the latest in the sub-3 saga. I'm still male, 47, and 5'8". My weight has gone from 149 to 146 in the past 3 weeks, so progress there, although maybe I'm dehydrated right now.
I was overseas for a week in the middle of the past 2 weeks, so I had to deal with time change, excessive walking during the day, lack of sleep, etc.
Week of 9/8:
Su - 12.93E @ 7:43
Mo - 6.12E @ 8:03
Tu - (16.76) 8E+5*(1k 5k w/3 min jg)+6*(200R w/200jg)+2E (8E @ 8:11 + 1ks @ 3:42, 3:41, 3:40, 3:40, 3:40 + 200s @ 41.17, 41.42, 42.54, 42.54, 41.29, 41.01 + 2E @ 7:45)
We - 9.04E @ 8:04
Th - 0.0 (Traveling)
Fr - 9.78E @ 8:10
Sa - 20.61E @ 7:42 (Plan called for 20E, so this was OK. Was going to 10E+10M, but my legs were toast due to walking all day. Also, 1,227/1,191 ft elev gain/loss, which I'm not accustomed to!)
Total miles: 75.24
Week of 9/15:
Su - 9.14E @ 7:33
Mo - 13.13E @ 7:50
Tu - 4.03E @ 7:48
We - (15) 6E+5*(1k 5k w/3 min E) + 4E (6E @ 8:09 + 1ks @ 3:37, 3:39, 3:42, 3:44, 3:43 + 4E @ 7:59) "Jetlag special". Plane landed and I ran immediately. A bit warm, too.
Th - 7.55E @ 7:55
Fr - 6.20E @ 8:11
Sa - (18.0) 3E+6M+1T+6M+2E (3E @ 7:26 + 6M @ 6:41 + 1T @ 6:32 + 6M @ 6:58 (*) + 3E @ 7:54)
Total miles: 73.05
OK, Saturday was supposed to be my big "marathon pace test run". 6:42 was the pace I wanted. I was on pace for the first 9 miles and then slowly veered away from goal pace and blew up on the last of the 13 miles (7:27). If we omit that mile and use the first 12, the average pace is 6:45. With it included, I'm looking at 6:48.
Now, there have been some extenuating circumstances. My legs have been beat up all week from walking around during the trip, jetlag, etc. , although Friday was probably the first day the legs felt more or less normal. Saturday they felt good at the beginning. I got a late start and it was hot, humid and sunny (at least it was for a Michigander). It was probably about 78F and 83% humidity during the M portion...I actually am good with a 6:45-48 pace, but what concerns me is the sudden slowdown at the 13th mile. How much should I read into that? My HR was just fine (154, and I usually avg in the 160s when I race a marathon all out), but I was so hot and thirsty by that point I can't help but think that it was related to the weather more than poor pacing...would be interested in some opinions on that. I'm 3 weeks out (Chicago) and no more big workouts in the plan...
I ran a similar workout (3E+12M+2E) 3 weeks ago, and averaged 6:44 for the 12M, but now that I look again at it I notice the last mile was 6:58...so I had suddenly faded on that run, as well. 66F 60% humidity, so much more comfortable that day.
Of course, all of this is in the middle of 70+ mile weeks...I will be tapered & fresh on race day, and theoretically the temp should be cooler...still I wonder if I should be more conservative in my pacing based on these findings.