Jorgensen has had little problem winning at the sprint distant. She is a bit vulnerable at that distance because she has less margin for error to catch the leaders running a 5k. However, she has improved in the swim and bike and no longer spots huge chunks of time. She is giving up two gold medals in the upcoming olympics because she has been a dependable member of the mixed relays as well.
Jerry Maguire wrote:
I'm sorry. Call me a hater.
This is absurd and ridiculous. At a bare minimum it is unhealthy for our sport to promote these grand unchecked fantasies boosted by media outlets looking for "clicks". It's a JOKE! Seriously.
To talk of Olympic GOLD, totally skip over being Top 3 at the Trials, skip over the part where you run a time to even give you a chance at top 3 at the Trials, is stupid. It's embarrassing and a total sham. Average people on social media believe this crap and will actually consider her a legit medal contender.
How is anyone embracing this garbage?
I would have much more respect if her stated goal was to make the Olympic Team in the Marathon.
I agree. That Chris Chaves SI journalist was all over her jock and seems to have bought into the hype. I was surprised by that and disappointed with him.
PeteMesquite89 wrote:
Karl Hungus wrote:
I like that she's aiming high for her goals. If she would have said I'm going to be a professional marathoner, I would have lost interest but since she threw down the gauntlet, I'm going to pay attention to see if she can dominate.
I agree. She's totally exposing herself to a ton of criticism and derision by saying she wants olympic gold, but so what. That should be every pro marathoners goal.
We tend to marginalize our American elites because the eastern Africans are just that good, and we just want them to run PB's, or maybe podium.
We need to have more marathoners who attack the sport with the mentality of someone who wants to win.
She's a winner.
She said herself that she was happy in her job before taking up tri. She is a driven competitor. She wins. She'll be pretty competitive here too. No one can predict a gold (even bolt) but they should certainly strive for one. As for the Olympics its not her first rodeo.
Don't you all worry. Just sit on your couch and look at one of the true competitors doing things you only dream of.
Here's what I think will happen for 2017-2019 until the 2020 trials.
2017: Runs in Portland training with BTC but unofficially until her Asics contract is up. Probably sticks with base training and maybe tries to start losing some of the swimmer muscles to drop weight.
2018: Does an indoor 5000m in Washington possibly, although I highly doubt it. Most likely she won't race until mid-spring where she opens up with a road 10k or 20k, whatever is available. I'm not checking the USATF road circuit schedule but I'd bet she aims at a lot of those races. She already knows she can run with the B level americans like Bruce and Hall at 10mi distance so there's no reason that she won't be capable of top-10 or even top-5 in some road races. She might do a 10,000m at some point and try to qualify for USAs. She will run 32:37. In the fall she will do a marathon if her prior races went alright. She will run 2:32.
2019: runs a 71min half marathon and a 2:30 marathon.
2020 trials: DNF, injury.
Half of the Brits, for starters...
okeydokie wrote:
She's a winner.
She said herself that she was happy in her job before taking up tri. She is a driven competitor. She wins. She'll be pretty competitive here too. No one can predict a gold (even bolt) but they should certainly strive for one. As for the Olympics its not her first rodeo.
Don't you all worry. Just sit on your couch and look at one of the true competitors doing things you only dream of.
All dumb points. I return to my McGregor analogy one last time:
He TOO is "a winner."
He TOO is a "driven competitor".
He TOO "wins".
He TOO was not in his "first rodeo" (as far as being under the bright lights of a a mega-fight.)
He TOO was already a world champion (in a combat sport, before trying boxing).
He TOO immensely believes in himself and dreams huge and strives for the ultimate.
But despite allllll that, he wasn't going to switch to boxing and become the best in the world.
And people like me (and millions of others) said so, and we were right to say so. (even if he committed full time to it, he's not gong to dethrone the undisputed world champs in his weight class(es) in boxing. Never gonna happen). And no one was being a hater for saying so.
I like the guy. I like Gwen.
But she too will not switch to a different (albeit a similar and related ) sport and be as good (Olympic Gold) as she was at her main sport. It's ....not....gonna......happen.
okeydokie wrote:
PeteMesquite89 wrote:
I agree. She's totally exposing herself to a ton of criticism and derision by saying she wants olympic gold, but so what. That should be every pro marathoners goal.
We tend to marginalize our American elites because the eastern Africans are just that good, and we just want them to run PB's, or maybe podium.
We need to have more marathoners who attack the sport with the mentality of someone who wants to win.
She's a winner.
She said herself that she was happy in her job before taking up tri. She is a driven competitor. She wins. She'll be pretty competitive here too. No one can predict a gold (even bolt) but they should certainly strive for one. As for the Olympics its not her first rodeo.
Don't you all worry. Just sit on your couch and look at one of the true competitors doing things you only dream of.
You are insane. This WILL NOT HAPPEN, regardless of how bad you or Runners World want it to come true. This is outright insanity that this is even being talked about in the media..... Seriously its nuts. Every time I post, I notice this story is on another outlet, like wtf?
reed wrote:
Here's what I think will happen for 2017-2019 until the 2020 trials.
2017: Runs in Portland training with BTC but unofficially until her Asics contract is up. Probably sticks with base training and maybe tries to start losing some of the swimmer muscles to drop weight.
2018: Does an indoor 5000m in Washington possibly, although I highly doubt it. Most likely she won't race until mid-spring where she opens up with a road 10k or 20k, whatever is available. I'm not checking the USATF road circuit schedule but I'd bet she aims at a lot of those races. She already knows she can run with the B level americans like Bruce and Hall at 10mi distance so there's no reason that she won't be capable of top-10 or even top-5 in some road races. She might do a 10,000m at some point and try to qualify for USAs. She will run 32:37. In the fall she will do a marathon if her prior races went alright. She will run 2:32.
2019: runs a 71min half marathon and a 2:30 marathon.
2020 trials: DNF, injury.
I agree with the general gist of the post, that she isn't likely to make huge jumps. That said, I think your times are a little slow.
The more I look at it, the more I realize just how good she already is. Gwen is a REALLY good runner right now. The more I look at it, the more I think she could absolutely be a damn good US level 10k/half racer. She is already better than most.
You mentioned 10k qualifing so sounds like track. She ran 3 seconds per mile slower than your 10k time(5:19 vs 5:16 pace) at 10 mi champs, on what was not exactly a blazing fast course. You're telling me she is only going to run 3 seconds per mile faster, on the track, at two thirds the distance?
Gwen is looking at least 31:45 given the track, unless she is absolutely a crazy aerobic monster. Of course, if that's the case then we are likely talking about close to 70 flat for half, which already brings a time below 2:30 into play. 31:30/70' are good numbers. Whose faster than that? Huddle and Hastings are, Shalane was, not sure there are too many others.
Honestly, if she wanted to make the US 10,000m team in Tokyo she almost certainly can. Only way she doesn't is if she is one of those rare individuals that does better with the large volume of overall training and doesn't benefit much from running specificity. If she get's even 5s/mile faster, something that many experienced runners see over a year or two of training; then you're looking at a close to 31:00 10,000m runner. That's a runner that is a shoe in for a spot in Rio. If she can kick, she might even be able to make it in current fitness/with no improvement. If she is the type to benefit significantly from running specificty and higher running volume then watch out...a 10s/mile improvement over several years would have her into Shalane/Huddle territory.
I'm leaving marathon out of this because it's a crapshoot and we don't have any idea yet on whether that works for her. She's obviously fit enough for 2:2x high, but there are the Tadese's of the world out there. She might only run 2:35.
Tyrone ReXXXing wrote:
okeydokie wrote:
She's a winner.
She said herself that she was happy in her job before taking up tri. She is a driven competitor. She wins. She'll be pretty competitive here too. No one can predict a gold (even bolt) but they should certainly strive for one. As for the Olympics its not her first rodeo.
Don't you all worry. Just sit on your couch and look at one of the true competitors doing things you only dream of.
All dumb points. I return to my McGregor analogy one last time:
He TOO is "a winner."
He TOO is a "driven competitor".
He TOO "wins".
He TOO was not in his "first rodeo" (as far as being under the bright lights of a a mega-fight.)
He TOO was already a world champion (in a combat sport, before trying boxing).
He TOO immensely believes in himself and dreams huge and strives for the ultimate.
But despite allllll that, he wasn't going to switch to boxing and become the best in the world.
And people like me (and millions of others) said so, and we were right to say so. (even if he committed full time to it, he's not gong to dethrone the undisputed world champs in his weight class(es) in boxing. Never gonna happen). And no one was being a hater for saying so.
I like the guy. I like Gwen.
But she too will not switch to a different (albeit a similar and related ) sport and be as good (Olympic Gold) as she was at her main sport. It's ....not....gonna......happen.
Olympic Gold? Yea, don't see it. I'd say maybe there is a 1 in 10,000 chance. It's probably not much better or worse than say Sara Hall's or Amy Hastings chances.
Switch to running and be a very good US woman? I give that pretty good chances. 1 in 10 to maybe as high as 1 in 3.
Jerry Maguire wrote:
You are insane. This WILL NOT HAPPEN, regardless of how bad you or Runners World want it to come true. This is outright insanity that this is even being talked about in the media..... Seriously its nuts. Every time I post, I notice this story is on another outlet, like wtf?
If you're context is win gold, yea not gonna happen. But she's just dreaming there and knows it. Everybody does it, lots of HS kids say that want to play in the NFL or win Olympic gold or be a major champion in golf...everybody knows it's a pipe dream. Same with Gwen. That's her dream, not her goal. I don't think she is delusional.
She's good though. If she said her goal was to be US champ, I'd see that as a definite possibility. A challenge, but one that makes sense. If you're top 5-10 in the US and say you want to be the best in the US...that's reasonable as goal. No different than a 14:00 guy wanting to be a 13:30 guy.
Shalane is gonna switch to the Triathlon.
Only world class milers can make the switch to the triathlon.
Gwen ,
How about you show us, don’t tell us. In case you didn’t know, running is a no nonsense sport where the proof is always in the pudding. If you ran a series of sub 67 half’s, had multiple podiums in major marathons and proven your speed on the track with 5000 and 10,000 results, then it wouldn’t be such a bold claim.
What a punch in the face to all elite female runners. You run one slow marathon and now you just assume you’ll sweep the 2020 U.S. marathon trials and go on to win Gold in Tokyo? I understand having dreams, but don’t be delusional.
If this is just a marketing stunt like Conner McGreggor boxing Floyd Mayweather, then that’s one thing. But to assume you’ll win the most prestigious title in the world in an event you’ve run once, and did poorly at it is just a bunch of hot air.
How about you stay humble, go get some results and then you’ll have some credibility.
R u high wrote:
Gwen ,
How about you show us, don’t tell us. In case you didn’t know, running is a no nonsense sport where the proof is always in the pudding. If you ran a series of sub 67 half’s, had multiple podiums in major marathons and proven your speed on the track with 5000 and 10,000 results, then it wouldn’t be such a bold claim.
What a punch in the face to all elite female runners. You run one slow marathon and now you just assume you’ll sweep the 2020 U.S. marathon trials and go on to win Gold in Tokyo? I understand having dreams, but don’t be delusional.
If this is just a marketing stunt like Conner McGreggor boxing Floyd Mayweather, then that’s one thing. But to assume you’ll win the most prestigious title in the world in an event you’ve run once, and did poorly at it is just a bunch of hot air.
How about you stay humble, go get some results and then you’ll have some credibility.
Where did you get the idea she assume's she'll sweep up Gold? It is a dream. That's all it is.
She posted a few check boxes of dreams she accomplished, along with an unchecked dream. Unless there is something about Gwen I don't know, that isn't much of a reason to assume she's being cocky.
R u high wrote:
Gwen ,
How about you show us, don’t tell us. In case you didn’t know, running is a no nonsense sport where the proof is always in the pudding. If you ran a series of sub 67 half’s, had multiple podiums in major marathons and proven your speed on the track with 5000 and 10,000 results, then it wouldn’t be such a bold claim.
What a punch in the face to all elite female runners. You run one slow marathon and now you just assume you’ll sweep the 2020 U.S. marathon trials and go on to win Gold in Tokyo? I understand having dreams, but don’t be delusional.
If this is just a marketing stunt like Conner McGreggor boxing Floyd Mayweather, then that’s one thing. But to assume you’ll win the most prestigious title in the world in an event you’ve run once, and did poorly at it is just a bunch of hot air.
How about you stay humble, go get some results and then you’ll have some credibility.
I agree, I will need to see some results before I can believe in this claim. Run a fast time, compete in the Majors, win the Olympic Trials. Then maybe we can start talking about Olympic gold.
Anyone who thinks Sara Hall is in Gwen league does not know enough about being a top world-class athlete. Gwen destroyed the competition and made them raise their game a bunch. She won 13 straight ITU races, where all sorts of things can go wrong. Probably the only times she has really raced the 10km hard is when something has gone wrong and she is not in the first bike group on the road; I think that she has run somewhere in the 32s. Since she would have had to pull her group much of the time, the bike leg would have been pretty hard (and the swim is never a piece of cake). I would be surprised if she does not hit 31 for 10,000 if she runs one with peak fitness.
Not many people can average 40-50 miles per week, with a peak of 57, long run of 16, and hang with a world-class field for almost half of the NYC race. She was not interested in running a safe first race, she wanted to know what it is like to be at the edge, and she has been on the physical edge more than at least 99.9% of the posters here, so she knows what it takes and many commentators here simply do not; watching others is just not the same.
I actually traveled to that Big Ten Indoor meet where she won the 3000/5000 double (and I think that she was Athlete of the Meet, not sure). And she did that on 18 months of training after not running for three years and being a top student in one of the tougher majors at Wisconsin. When she has run she has the muscle strength for the swim and even the bike and will be able to knock off that weight without doing anything but training. Bowerman is a natural for her, with her Wisconsin ties, and that womens group has gotten really good (NYC, SC Silver, Bronze, Silver, 5000 Bronze, 10,000 Silver) and it has given Jerry the background to know how to transfer what he knows from men to the women. He is very good at differentiating across athletes, although some promising runners just don't work out (Uhl, the Canadian).
As for knowing how to race at the very top of the sport, not of the next best Americans can hold a candle to Jorgensen. She went down in London with the water and maybe a flat and got left behind. She then was still pretty much a neophyte and got better really fast. She has more hard two-hour or more races under her belt than any American distance runner, maybe as much as the top several combined. She is meticulous, she is driven, she will not have the complications of travel, season training sites around the world and the family will get her out of the training world for a balanced life. For sponsors, I doubt here Tri contracts like Roku or whatever are a big deal, and will constrain her.
The notion that her chances are 1 in 10,000 are really off base. I would give her a a pretty good chance to get one of the three slots for the OGs, and since she has raced so often in warm/hot/humid weather she knows much better how her body responds to that kind of stress than the other American marathoners. Unlike almost all running neophytes she knows all about how her body handles fluids and fuels and how much she needs because she has many more runs at it in race situations than anybody she is competing against (Although Shalane and Amy probably are not too far behind). She will never be nervous in a crowd as she deals with that on the bike for an hour a race with much worse consequences for errors. Yes, we have not seen how she will react to marathon training, but thinking that she will have a hard time cracking 2:30 is silly, and she is a racer, best in championship races, not a time trial type so may never have a truly fast marathon.
You guys don't get it. Winning olympic gold is her goal, not something she expects, and I think she has a shot. Gwen is a freak of nature with incredible speed, strength, and endurance. I could see 2:25 - 2:29 in a year or two, definitely.
LM wrote:
R u high wrote:
Gwen ,
How about you show us, don’t tell us. In case you didn’t know, running is a no nonsense sport where the proof is always in the pudding. If you ran a series of sub 67 half’s, had multiple podiums in major marathons and proven your speed on the track with 5000 and 10,000 results, then it wouldn’t be such a bold claim.
What a punch in the face to all elite female runners. You run one slow marathon and now you just assume you’ll sweep the 2020 U.S. marathon trials and go on to win Gold in Tokyo? I understand having dreams, but don’t be delusional.
If this is just a marketing stunt like Conner McGreggor boxing Floyd Mayweather, then that’s one thing. But to assume you’ll win the most prestigious title in the world in an event you’ve run once, and did poorly at it is just a bunch of hot air.
How about you stay humble, go get some results and then you’ll have some credibility.
Where did you get the idea she assume's she'll sweep up Gold? It is a dream. That's all it is.
She posted a few check boxes of dreams she accomplished, along with an unchecked dream. Unless there is something about Gwen I don't know, that isn't much of a reason to assume she's being cocky.
Read again. Sweep the trials, not "sweep up Gold". Regardless of wording, if you're going to win a gold medal, chances are you'll probably, just probably, be the best in the country.
Too much duck here wrote:
Anyone who thinks Sara Hall is in Gwen league does not know enough about being a top world-class athlete. Gwen destroyed the competition and made them raise their game a bunch. She won 13 straight ITU races, where all sorts of things can go wrong. Probably the only times she has really raced the 10km hard is when something has gone wrong and she is not in the first bike group on the road; I think that she has run somewhere in the 32s. Since she would have had to pull her group much of the time, the bike leg would have been pretty hard (and the swim is never a piece of cake). I would be surprised if she does not hit 31 for 10,000 if she runs one with peak fitness.
Not many people can average 40-50 miles per week, with a peak of 57, long run of 16, and hang with a world-class field for almost half of the NYC race. She was not interested in running a safe first race, she wanted to know what it is like to be at the edge, and she has been on the physical edge more than at least 99.9% of the posters here, so she knows what it takes and many commentators here simply do not; watching others is just not the same.
I actually traveled to that Big Ten Indoor meet where she won the 3000/5000 double (and I think that she was Athlete of the Meet, not sure). And she did that on 18 months of training after not running for three years and being a top student in one of the tougher majors at Wisconsin. When she has run she has the muscle strength for the swim and even the bike and will be able to knock off that weight without doing anything but training. Bowerman is a natural for her, with her Wisconsin ties, and that womens group has gotten really good (NYC, SC Silver, Bronze, Silver, 5000 Bronze, 10,000 Silver) and it has given Jerry the background to know how to transfer what he knows from men to the women. He is very good at differentiating across athletes, although some promising runners just don't work out (Uhl, the Canadian).
As for knowing how to race at the very top of the sport, not of the next best Americans can hold a candle to Jorgensen. She went down in London with the water and maybe a flat and got left behind. She then was still pretty much a neophyte and got better really fast. She has more hard two-hour or more races under her belt than any American distance runner, maybe as much as the top several combined. She is meticulous, she is driven, she will not have the complications of travel, season training sites around the world and the family will get her out of the training world for a balanced life. For sponsors, I doubt here Tri contracts like Roku or whatever are a big deal, and will constrain her.
The notion that her chances are 1 in 10,000 are really off base. I would give her a a pretty good chance to get one of the three slots for the OGs, and since she has raced so often in warm/hot/humid weather she knows much better how her body responds to that kind of stress than the other American marathoners. Unlike almost all running neophytes she knows all about how her body handles fluids and fuels and how much she needs because she has many more runs at it in race situations than anybody she is competing against (Although Shalane and Amy probably are not too far behind). She will never be nervous in a crowd as she deals with that on the bike for an hour a race with much worse consequences for errors. Yes, we have not seen how she will react to marathon training, but thinking that she will have a hard time cracking 2:30 is silly, and she is a racer, best in championship races, not a time trial type so may never have a truly fast marathon.
Hi Gwen, how are you? Welcome to letsrun.
You must be higher wrote:
Hi Gwen, how are you? Welcome to letsrun.
Nah, just a triathlon cultist.