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Newbury Park will be gone off the map this year. I’ve heard rumors about some drama with athletes leaving. I know Tiffany Sax transferred. Anyone know who else?
They had a 9:40 freshman that also left.
I knew that one of the top class of 2026 guys would possibly transfer out, unless they actually lived close to Newbury Park
Well that was kind of my point. The training there is the problem…by the time the girls there are upperclassmen they are burned out. In come the tiny fresh frosh/Soph girls who have been running/training with the HS team since 7th grade and they have an amazing 2 years and then hit junior year and go backwards. It gets even worse when they move on to college. Because of the training! full high school miles and workouts since 7th grade so that’s why I said per usual. It is literally the training.
I dont think its this clear cut. Does Buchanan have a reputation for being a meat grinder for distance runners? Id say yes. It has that reputation. And there may be something to it. But your concept that every kid there is amazing their freshman and sophomore years then drop off a cliff doesnt hold up when you start looking at the athletes. Just last year their best senior runner (Grace Hutchison) PRed in the mile and had a fantastic year. If you look at her times over the years they have mostly risen every year of her high school career (5:09 -> 4:55 -> 4:47 -> 4:45). Will she become the next Courtney Wayment now that shes in college? Probably not but its probably not because Buchanan "burned her out".
I think people love throwing around that "burned out" term a lot with female athletes, especially from programs known for pushing their kids from a young age. I think whats more likely is that these kinds of programs (thinking of Saratoga too) get their kids to their fitness potential faster than your average program and then they plateau. And plateauing is distinctly different from "burning out" which implies mental fatigue as well as physical exhaustion or injury. Maybe thats nuance to some people here but I dont think it is. But it could explain why a lot of Buchanan grads dont go on to become super stars in college and beyond.
Same concept applied to their second best runner as well (Sydney Sundgren). Peeked as a sophomore then stayed within a second or two of that sophomore time for her next two years. Thats not burning out, thats plateauing. And of course their most impressive 8th grader dropped off her freshman year because of constant health issues. So that doesnt follow the freshmen great/seniors bad oversimplification either.
Well that was kind of my point. The training there is the problem…by the time the girls there are upperclassmen they are burned out. In come the tiny fresh frosh/Soph girls who have been running/training with the HS team since 7th grade and they have an amazing 2 years and then hit junior year and go backwards. It gets even worse when they move on to college. Because of the training! full high school miles and workouts since 7th grade so that’s why I said per usual. It is literally the training.
I dont think its this clear cut. Does Buchanan have a reputation for being a meat grinder for distance runners? Id say yes. It has that reputation. And there may be something to it. But your concept that every kid there is amazing their freshman and sophomore years then drop off a cliff doesnt hold up when you start looking at the athletes. Just last year their best senior runner (Grace Hutchison) PRed in the mile and had a fantastic year. If you look at her times over the years they have mostly risen every year of her high school career (5:09 -> 4:55 -> 4:47 -> 4:45). Will she become the next Courtney Wayment now that shes in college? Probably not but its probably not because Buchanan "burned her out".
I think people love throwing around that "burned out" term a lot with female athletes, especially from programs known for pushing their kids from a young age. I think whats more likely is that these kinds of programs (thinking of Saratoga too) get their kids to their fitness potential faster than your average program and then they plateau. And plateauing is distinctly different from "burning out" which implies mental fatigue as well as physical exhaustion or injury. Maybe thats nuance to some people here but I dont think it is. But it could explain why a lot of Buchanan grads dont go on to become super stars in college and beyond.
Same concept applied to their second best runner as well (Sydney Sundgren). Peeked as a sophomore then stayed within a second or two of that sophomore time for her next two years. Thats not burning out, thats plateauing. And of course their most impressive 8th grader dropped off her freshman year because of constant health issues. So that doesnt follow the freshmen great/seniors bad oversimplification either.
What I often think about is to slightly hold the Freshman back a little so they don't over do it early on and have a better future development. Work on keeping them healthy and running consistently but not pushing up to the same training that the Seniors are doing, even if they are fast. Allow them to build a bit over the first two years of High School and I think you reach a higher peak eventually.
Well that was kind of my point. The training there is the problem…by the time the girls there are upperclassmen they are burned out. In come the tiny fresh frosh/Soph girls who have been running/training with the HS team since 7th grade and they have an amazing 2 years and then hit junior year and go backwards. It gets even worse when they move on to college. Because of the training! full high school miles and workouts since 7th grade so that’s why I said per usual. It is literally the training.
I dont think its this clear cut. Does Buchanan have a reputation for being a meat grinder for distance runners? Id say yes. It has that reputation. And there may be something to it. But your concept that every kid there is amazing their freshman and sophomore years then drop off a cliff doesnt hold up when you start looking at the athletes. Just last year their best senior runner (Grace Hutchison) PRed in the mile and had a fantastic year. If you look at her times over the years they have mostly risen every year of her high school career (5:09 -> 4:55 -> 4:47 -> 4:45). Will she become the next Courtney Wayment now that shes in college? Probably not but its probably not because Buchanan "burned her out".
I think people love throwing around that "burned out" term a lot with female athletes, especially from programs known for pushing their kids from a young age. I think whats more likely is that these kinds of programs (thinking of Saratoga too) get their kids to their fitness potential faster than your average program and then they plateau. And plateauing is distinctly different from "burning out" which implies mental fatigue as well as physical exhaustion or injury. Maybe thats nuance to some people here but I dont think it is. But it could explain why a lot of Buchanan grads dont go on to become super stars in college and beyond.
Same concept applied to their second best runner as well (Sydney Sundgren). Peeked as a sophomore then stayed within a second or two of that sophomore time for her next two years. Thats not burning out, thats plateauing. And of course their most impressive 8th grader dropped off her freshman year because of constant health issues. So that doesnt follow the freshmen great/seniors bad oversimplification either.
Apart from rigorous training from the get-go, there is also the issue of female puberty and maturation. Across high schools, one sees a dynamic of girls who have crazy fast times as 9th graders, then fall back as their body changes.
Do we see a similar trend of 9th and 10th grade Buchanan boys posting really fast times and then plateauing?
Well that was kind of my point. The training there is the problem…by the time the girls there are upperclassmen they are burned out. In come the tiny fresh frosh/Soph girls who have been running/training with the HS team since 7th grade and they have an amazing 2 years and then hit junior year and go backwards. It gets even worse when they move on to college. Because of the training! full high school miles and workouts since 7th grade so that’s why I said per usual. It is literally the training.
I dont think its this clear cut. Does Buchanan have a reputation for being a meat grinder for distance runners? Id say yes. It has that reputation. And there may be something to it. But your concept that every kid there is amazing their freshman and sophomore years then drop off a cliff doesnt hold up when you start looking at the athletes. Just last year their best senior runner (Grace Hutchison) PRed in the mile and had a fantastic year. If you look at her times over the years they have mostly risen every year of her high school career (5:09 -> 4:55 -> 4:47 -> 4:45). Will she become the next Courtney Wayment now that shes in college? Probably not but its probably not because Buchanan "burned her out".
I think people love throwing around that "burned out" term a lot with female athletes, especially from programs known for pushing their kids from a young age. I think whats more likely is that these kinds of programs (thinking of Saratoga too) get their kids to their fitness potential faster than your average program and then they plateau. And plateauing is distinctly different from "burning out" which implies mental fatigue as well as physical exhaustion or injury. Maybe thats nuance to some people here but I dont think it is. But it could explain why a lot of Buchanan grads dont go on to become super stars in college and beyond.
Same concept applied to their second best runner as well (Sydney Sundgren). Peeked as a sophomore then stayed within a second or two of that sophomore time for her next two years. Thats not burning out, thats plateauing. And of course their most impressive 8th grader dropped off her freshman year because of constant health issues. So that doesnt follow the freshmen great/seniors bad oversimplification either.
I did use the term burned out but in my original response I said “they go backwards”. Which when just looking at stats on milesplit seem to support that. I don’t know them personally like you seem to so I wouldn’t be able to include health issues into the equation. But I do think Sundgren peaking sophomore year seems to be clear. And “going backwards” by a minute at Woodward park her senior year is alarming and more than a plateau. She didn’t qualify for an individual event in the state track meet because she wasn’t even close to her PRs from Soph year. Mendyck was also a varsity xc athlete freshman year and on the nxn team, and senior year could never come close to her PR again. Although she does seem to have made some improvements during her track season. Maybe you are right there are health issues at play there, I don’t know. Hutchison appears to have had an injury at the beginning of XC and rallied towards the end of the season to place second at the state meet. So overall a rough year for the 3 girls who were NXN team members as frosh. The NXN team last year was mostly underclassmen. Whether we call it “burned out” “plateauing” or “going backwards” I would still guess that most of them will not be close to their crazy good times they posted frosh/Soph year by the time they are juniors/seniors. That is because they have been training with the HS team since junior high. That’s a grind! Yes girls bodies have big changes during those years but those changes compounded with elite HS level training since 7th grade takes a toll. I saw another thread that commented on Buchanan girls “staggering across the finish at state” so there are more than just a few people who have noticed those girls are tired!
I dont think its this clear cut. Does Buchanan have a reputation for being a meat grinder for distance runners? Id say yes. It has that reputation. And there may be something to it. But your concept that every kid there is amazing their freshman and sophomore years then drop off a cliff doesnt hold up when you start looking at the athletes. Just last year their best senior runner (Grace Hutchison) PRed in the mile and had a fantastic year. If you look at her times over the years they have mostly risen every year of her high school career (5:09 -> 4:55 -> 4:47 -> 4:45). Will she become the next Courtney Wayment now that shes in college? Probably not but its probably not because Buchanan "burned her out".
I think people love throwing around that "burned out" term a lot with female athletes, especially from programs known for pushing their kids from a young age. I think whats more likely is that these kinds of programs (thinking of Saratoga too) get their kids to their fitness potential faster than your average program and then they plateau. And plateauing is distinctly different from "burning out" which implies mental fatigue as well as physical exhaustion or injury. Maybe thats nuance to some people here but I dont think it is. But it could explain why a lot of Buchanan grads dont go on to become super stars in college and beyond.
Same concept applied to their second best runner as well (Sydney Sundgren). Peeked as a sophomore then stayed within a second or two of that sophomore time for her next two years. Thats not burning out, thats plateauing. And of course their most impressive 8th grader dropped off her freshman year because of constant health issues. So that doesnt follow the freshmen great/seniors bad oversimplification either.
I did use the term burned out but in my original response I said “they go backwards”. Which when just looking at stats on milesplit seem to support that. I don’t know them personally like you seem to so I wouldn’t be able to include health issues into the equation. But I do think Sundgren peaking sophomore year seems to be clear. And “going backwards” by a minute at Woodward park her senior year is alarming and more than a plateau. She didn’t qualify for an individual event in the state track meet because she wasn’t even close to her PRs from Soph year. Mendyck was also a varsity xc athlete freshman year and on the nxn team, and senior year could never come close to her PR again. Although she does seem to have made some improvements during her track season. Maybe you are right there are health issues at play there, I don’t know. Hutchison appears to have had an injury at the beginning of XC and rallied towards the end of the season to place second at the state meet. So overall a rough year for the 3 girls who were NXN team members as frosh. The NXN team last year was mostly underclassmen. Whether we call it “burned out” “plateauing” or “going backwards” I would still guess that most of them will not be close to their crazy good times they posted frosh/Soph year by the time they are juniors/seniors. That is because they have been training with the HS team since junior high. That’s a grind! Yes girls bodies have big changes during those years but those changes compounded with elite HS level training since 7th grade takes a toll. I saw another thread that commented on Buchanan girls “staggering across the finish at state” so there are more than just a few people who have noticed those girls are tired!
So, just out of curiosity, let's say some of the girls peaked during their sophomore year and then had body changes, or other maturation changes that negatively impacted their running.
Do you think bringing them along slowly vs having them compete at their best earlier would make them better post sophomore year? Post changes after their sophomore year, would less training prior have made them better runners in their senior year?
I wonder if maybe their physical ceiling maybe changed post sophomore year body changes and the training they did prior wouldn't really change the outcome. I don't know the answer or have an opinion, just wondering if that's a valid thought.
I did use the term burned out but in my original response I said “they go backwards”. Which when just looking at stats on milesplit seem to support that. I don’t know them personally like you seem to so I wouldn’t be able to include health issues into the equation. But I do think Sundgren peaking sophomore year seems to be clear. And “going backwards” by a minute at Woodward park her senior year is alarming and more than a plateau. She didn’t qualify for an individual event in the state track meet because she wasn’t even close to her PRs from Soph year. Mendyck was also a varsity xc athlete freshman year and on the nxn team, and senior year could never come close to her PR again. Although she does seem to have made some improvements during her track season. Maybe you are right there are health issues at play there, I don’t know. Hutchison appears to have had an injury at the beginning of XC and rallied towards the end of the season to place second at the state meet. So overall a rough year for the 3 girls who were NXN team members as frosh. The NXN team last year was mostly underclassmen. Whether we call it “burned out” “plateauing” or “going backwards” I would still guess that most of them will not be close to their crazy good times they posted frosh/Soph year by the time they are juniors/seniors. That is because they have been training with the HS team since junior high. That’s a grind! Yes girls bodies have big changes during those years but those changes compounded with elite HS level training since 7th grade takes a toll. I saw another thread that commented on Buchanan girls “staggering across the finish at state” so there are more than just a few people who have noticed those girls are tired!
So, just out of curiosity, let's say some of the girls peaked during their sophomore year and then had body changes, or other maturation changes that negatively impacted their running.
Do you think bringing them along slowly vs having them compete at their best earlier would make them better post sophomore year? Post changes after their sophomore year, would less training prior have made them better runners in their senior year?
I wonder if maybe their physical ceiling maybe changed post sophomore year body changes and the training they did prior wouldn't really change the outcome. I don't know the answer or have an opinion, just wondering if that's a valid thought.
I would love to answer this one. I think all girls have a "down" year as they mature. It's how you deal with this will have a significant impact on the final athlete. If you keep dragging them through negativity (you were this fast and now you're slower). Or you need to "lose weight" or whatever the case may be, those things drag them down further. I have always been of the opinion of just keep it positive, work for Season Bests if possible and just wait it out a bit. Of course they are still working hard towards goals and you don't give up. Don't let the parents drag them down either. If girls never made it through this down period then we would never have any pros because Freshman year is your fastest ever right?
I did use the term burned out but in my original response I said “they go backwards”. Which when just looking at stats on milesplit seem to support that. I don’t know them personally like you seem to so I wouldn’t be able to include health issues into the equation. But I do think Sundgren peaking sophomore year seems to be clear. And “going backwards” by a minute at Woodward park her senior year is alarming and more than a plateau. She didn’t qualify for an individual event in the state track meet because she wasn’t even close to her PRs from Soph year. Mendyck was also a varsity xc athlete freshman year and on the nxn team, and senior year could never come close to her PR again. Although she does seem to have made some improvements during her track season. Maybe you are right there are health issues at play there, I don’t know. Hutchison appears to have had an injury at the beginning of XC and rallied towards the end of the season to place second at the state meet. So overall a rough year for the 3 girls who were NXN team members as frosh. The NXN team last year was mostly underclassmen. Whether we call it “burned out” “plateauing” or “going backwards” I would still guess that most of them will not be close to their crazy good times they posted frosh/Soph year by the time they are juniors/seniors. That is because they have been training with the HS team since junior high. That’s a grind! Yes girls bodies have big changes during those years but those changes compounded with elite HS level training since 7th grade takes a toll. I saw another thread that commented on Buchanan girls “staggering across the finish at state” so there are more than just a few people who have noticed those girls are tired!
I dont necessarily disagree with anything you said here. As I recall last season did seem like a MASH episode for the Buchanan girls, there were so many injuries and physical issues plaguing them. They were constantly moving kids around to fill the holes in their line up. I guess what we can do is keep an eye on Lomeli and Cornett who were two high performing bright prospects their freshman and sophomore years and are now beginning their junior years as the team's best runners. Lets see if they show no improvement or "fall back" over the course of this year and next although Lomeli smashed a PR in the CIF Finals so I feel like she is still on an upswing at least (or maybe thats where she plateaus...). But it will be interesting to see what kind of times we get out of them. If some freshmen/sophomores go storming past them then you are probably onto something.
Yeah, that struck me as well. In my post track season rankings, they were #1 in D3, but the transfer that Dana Hills got makes them #2. It might be because this is largely XC based, and it is possible Rich knows something we don't. Out of all the rankings, this is the only big deviation from my rankings.
And pay attention to Matilda Torres. It might have been easy to miss how good their track season was considering their grade levels.
Definitely Oakdale always put together good state meet performances and they have good experience up front as Alsaidi is a beast.
Yeah, they lost their 1&3 from last year (Daley and the older Cavanaugh) but they have a solid top 5. (Alsaidi, transfer Dominguez, Oliviera 1, Oliveira 2, and the younger Cavanaugh). The only problem is, because there is a big drop-off on the team after the 5th spot, their top 5 need to be on when it matters
JSerra boys didn't even have a 5th runner who had a score I could calculate, and because of the big drop off to #4 already, they weren't going to be factor. So by "unranked" I meant I was unable to come up with a meaningful score to rank them, and it is was certainly outside the top 30 before the transfer.
I do all my rankings by hand, no data feeds for either the XC speed ratings or track times unfortunately. I had done what I thought was the top 30 overall boys teams, and I didn't think JSerra was worth doing. Now they are. Also there no manual adjustments. It is purely data driven. As noted, I think JSerra is probably better than #24 due to expected improvement, but my ranking system doesn't try to judge that.
Newbury Park will be gone off the map this year. I’ve heard rumors about some drama with athletes leaving. I know Tiffany Sax transferred. Anyone know who else?
They had a 9:40 freshman that also left.
Must be N Sloan
Neither him or his senior brother are listed in the athletic.net roster for NPHS
