Elias Ngeny WL 1:43.84 (previous best 1:49)

Armstronglivs wrote:

Renato Canova wrote:

We can't agree about two your points :

a) The fact that doping could explain the BEGINNING of the athletes I wrote about, in years like '90 - '95. Also if some of them maybe used doping in their career (nobody knows, you have reason), this of sure didn't happen from their beginning. I wrote those examples only for showing how can be not strange to start a professional running activity at 24-26 years, and so the fact talented athletes can have a big jump of quality after one year of specific training is common situation. Doping, if there is, starts later.

b) The fact you consider a beginner of 24 years as "mature athlete". He is a young man moving to his maturity as person, but the maturity of an athlete depends on the years of training he did in his life : for example, Jakob Ingebrigtsen is more mature than the leader of the World seasonal list (till now), Marc Owon Lomuket, who moved from 13'45" to 13'01" at sea level defeating Barega, for going back in Kenya and running again slower than 13'40" (I was the first to be surprised by his performance in Bergamo, since he trains under Geoffrey Ruto who was a my athlete, using the programs I send him, and never supposed he could have such talent).

Also among the best Kenyan athletes all-time, we can find some of them who started the career when Junior, directly from the school, and some other who started running when in some Military Corp, never before 24-26 years of age (especially Marathon runners). This can explain because the situation in Kenya is very much different from what happens in Western Countries, and in this period absolutely normal for athletes directly running HM and Marathon, who skip the period dedicated to the track (in the past very long because everybody started running on track) going directly to long road races when already are 25-30 years old.

Renato, you have confused my use of the word "mature". I am not referring to life experience or emotional maturity. I am talking about physiological maturity - which is when a person arrives at their natural biological peak, which is typically between 24-28. This is regardless of training. 24 is physiologically mature in a way that a teenage isn't.

However you strenuously avoid addressing my point below:

But what I wish to know is whether you are ever sceptical of the genuineness of any given level of improvement. You have defended Ngeny's improvement of 5-6 seconds over the 800m at age 24. As I have asked you before, when does improvement become suspicious - especially in a mature athlete? He has improved from 1.49x to 1.43x in a little over a year. What if he was running 1.42x, or 1.41x? Would you simply ascribe that, too, to better training?

Hicham III wrote:

Armstronglivs wrote:

The differences between 18 and 24 are significant, otherwise there would be many athletes who never run faster than when they were 18. Off the top of my head, I can only think of Amos. (If indeed he was only 18 in 2012). Most athletes get substantially better in their 20's - although teen prodigies less so. Brazier probably falls into the latter category. But we can be likely assured there will be no big performance jumps at 24.

What you feel "hand in heart" is not an argument. My brain reaches a different conclusion from what your heart tells you. I dont see an athlete stepping off the street at 23 and running as fast as they have at 25 when that was achieved after years of training.

This guy isn't 'stepping off the street'. He was running 1:48/49 every year, so he obviously trained a bit and kept himself in good shape. And Donovan Brazier didn't achieve 1:43 'after years of training', he did it when he was 18 after less than one year of serious training at college.

Most athletes get substantially better when they reach physical maturity AND train properly, not just when they blow out a few candles on their 21st birthday. If you haven't been doing the training, your peak age is going to be later.

restrunner wrote:

Armstronglivs wrote:

But you said the poster above is wrong with his predictions, which included that Ngeny won't run faster than 1.43. So, since you know he's going to run faster than 1.43, how much faster?

I can't know if his predictions are wrong or not - just future will tell. I questioned them and said "...let's see...". Usually Coevett's " "predictions" are based mainly on his hate level for the athlete in question so they are of no real value and there are many examples where he completely was wrong.

I know Ngeny is going to run faster than 1:43? I think beside your really boundless arrogance, one of your problems is your bad reading comprehension.

With this background for sure it's eminently possible that Ngeny will run sub 1:43 in future but since this depends on so many factors I will not predict something like this. But for sure I would not be surprised if he runs sub 1:43. WR? Better as anything we have seen so far? Very unlikely, don't you think?

Number 21 wrote:

restrunner wrote:

I can't know if his predictions are wrong or not - just future will tell. I questioned them and said "...let's see...". Usually Coevett's " "predictions" are based mainly on his hate level for the athlete in question so they are of no real value and there are many examples where he completely was wrong.

I know Ngeny is going to run faster than 1:43? I think beside your really boundless arrogance, one of your problems is your bad reading comprehension.

With this background for sure it's eminently possible that Ngeny will run sub 1:43 in future but since this depends on so many factors I will not predict something like this. But for sure I would not be surprised if he runs sub 1:43. WR? Better as anything we have seen so far? Very unlikely, don't you think?

Looks like Mr T was right. Ngeny could only 1:46.98 in the Kenyan trials to finish fourth.

http://www.africathle.com/2021/06/20/kenyan-olympic-trials-nairobi-17-19-06-2020/