agip wrote:
Some of the quick improvement in COVID stats has slowed. But still going in the right direction.
- 7 day averages -
US cases down around 33% from Jan 11 peak.
Deaths near all time highs unfortunately.
Israel cases down 18% from peak, but also all time highs for deaths.
UK cases are the best story - down 47% from Jan 11 peak. That's rather astonishing...I wonder if they are testing less. Deaths are at all time highs.
I also wonder why multiple nations peaked around January 11. What causes that kind of tight correlations among nations?
US lost some momentum in vaccinations...down to 1.1 mn per day, after regularly improving up to 1.4m per day. Probably running out of vaccine in many places. We really need JnJ to get online quickly.
US is now 1.05% fully vaxxed
Israel is 15.92% fully vaxxed.
Georgia continues to improve it's vaccination numbers, but really need to ramp up more for this to be successful.
We are now up to 750K shots administered. Averaging about 40K/day. Above the national per capita average, but still not fast enough.
Both Georgia and US really need to monitor when to move to the next phase of vaccinations. It's a race between the arithmatic growth of vaccinations and the exponential growth of these new more contagious variants. We could see another spike in a month or so if these variants indeed are far more contagious. Even more concerning given the slow rollout of vaccinations and the fact that we are not vaccinating the groups most likely to get and spread the virus (but far less likely to die). In Georgia, the age group receiving vaccinations now (65+) account for just 11% of cases, but 75% of deaths. That balancing act is tricky and I hope they are using solid models to determine the correct vaccination schedule to limit deaths.
I couldn't find anything on the Google. Does anyone know of a model that forecasts the cases/death rates based on rolling out the vaccine to different groups based on age (or other factors)? Is it better to vaccinate a certain percentage of 75+ initially before opening it up to 65+. Or, is opening up to 65+ or 70+ better. I assume the CDC developed some models, but, again, the schedule was developed during the Trump administraton and states have developed their own schedules. Obviously, a significant limiting factor is the ability to administer a large number of vaccinations/day. 1.1 million isn't going to get it done.
Also, what is going on with California. They are near the bottom in terms of percent of residents receiving at least one shot (40th) and percent of doses used (48th).