I don't think that is true. Otherwise we wouldn't need to get a flu shot every year.
I don't think that is true. Otherwise we wouldn't need to get a flu shot every year.
Fugu wrote:
Right now the protocol for respiratory diseases in hospitals is to do a flu test before anything else. If someone tests positive for the flu no Covid test is given. Because of this you will likely see people who are actually infected with both the flu and covid only being registered as a flu death.
In terms of how yearly cases of the flu are calculated. The yearly flu deaths are more of a statistical/modeling exercise than they’re an actual count. Each year epidemiologists will look at the number of deaths that occur during flu season versus the number of deaths for previous years paired with data on the number of deaths in hospitals. Based on previous data of how many cases there typically are in the community per death recorded an estimate of the number of yearly flu cases is calculated.
So when you have a case of the flu that doesn’t require hospitalization it will not be recorded but your case and others like it are accounted for in the models estimates of flu cases.
I would imagine most covid deaths are being captured in the US but you’re right about the number of confirmed cases being significantly lower than reality. After this pandemic is over we will have a better understanding of what percentage of cases are asymptomatic and we will be able to make rough estimates of how many cases there actually were.
I would be more than happy to help out with any other questions.
-your neighborhood infectious disease epidemiologist
Was going to come back and say essentially this. In addition to the excellent post by gully much, I don't much to add, other than I'm sorry to the OP if my initial response came across as snide. I'm just exhausted and frustrated by all the "it's just a flu, bro" trolls here and in real life. Such an uninformed and fatuously cavalier attitude towards this is what caused the country not to take this seriously when we actually had a chance to contain it.
Fugu-
Thanks for sharing some information on this situation. I have read that many teenagers don't have an enzyme that is necessary and needed for the Corvid 19 virus to infect them, is that true?
Second question- if two or three teenage runners in an area that has few to zero positive Corona tests would go out for a run together and stay six feet apart for the majority of the run, and don't touch each other while running or after finishing the run, and don't touch anything while running, and don't touch others while running, how might they become infected?
How long can the virus live on clothing and does cold impact it (thinking below freezing) ?
Thanks in advance for your responses.
Help me to understand wrote:
GOML wrote:
Because. This. Isn’t. Just. A. Bad. Flu.
It’s much worse.
Repeat that as necessary until it sinks in.
Signed,
A frustrated physician
I'm trying to understand this Covid concern and it's comparison to the common flu. So, in the past, when I have have the common flu I have experienced fever, fatigue, body aches, vomiting, diarrhea, and sometimes all of those at the same time. I have never gone to the hospital for the common flu, so I have never been counted statistically. With this most recent Covid 19, I hear of numerous people who are infected and they have no, or little symptoms, so I'm guessing the number of people who currently are infected is way higher than the numbers we are receiving as being reported. Yet, I'm guessing there are very few Covid 19 deaths that aren't be reported, and wonder how many common flu deaths are now being counted as Covid 19 deaths?
What am I missing and help me understand why this is so much worse than the common flu? Not trolling, just honestly don't understand why this virus is so much worse than other viruses?
I wonder this too. Right now Covid deaths are being over reported and flu deaths underreported. Oftentimes someone with the flu is hospitalized and gets pneumonia then dies. The coroner often lists cause of death as pneumonia and sometimes mentions the flu, sometimes not. Right now EVERY person who dies and also tests positive for Covid is being listed as a victim of the virus. Maybe they also had the flu or were in heart failure or had stage 4 cancer, but covid is being listed as cause of death.
My wife works in a hospital. It’s specifically ventilators and masks they lack.
Corona is an airborne respiratory virus that specifically attacks the lungs. This is why they need lots of ventilators and masks. Only those without a flu shot wear masks when they are on a patient floor. We have obviously don’t have a corona shot so everyone needs a mask.
gilt wrote:
Tribe wrote:
+2. Really great post. And add that corona epicenters like NYC are seeing even larger relative surges.
+4. Thank you for your succinct answer. This is what I was looking for (other posters' snide replies be damned)
The only question now is :
how many people are going to hospital out of paranoia from constant media doomsday reporting?
This is a question?
- people are immune to the flu
- there are vaccines for the flu
- so the need to be highly sanitized is not a concern
You catch this, then you have a high chance of becoming extremely ill, and dying from that illness.
There all kinds of medicines and vaccines to combat the flu.
There is zero to combat this... zero.
gully much? wrote:
[quote]Giles Corey wrote:
800,000 Americans hospitalized with the flu each year.
No stories of hospitals being overwhelmed.
Covid -- hard to get a hard number but surely no more than 20k to 30k hospitalized in Amercia so far.
All sorts of stories of hospitals being overwhelmed.
The number is closer to 400,000 being hospitalized each year. 800,000 is the extreme end of the range not often seen.
This season, there were 310,000 hospitalizations as of 3/5.
You help make my point. Some years 400,000 hospitalizations due to the flu while a recent year had 800,000. Yet no 24/7 in the media about shortages.
How can we handle an extra 400,000 flu cases one year, but not 25,000 Covid cases this year?
GOML wrote:
Fugu wrote:
Right now the protocol for respiratory diseases in hospitals is to do a flu test before anything else. If someone tests positive for the flu no Covid test is given. Because of this you will likely see people who are actually infected with both the flu and covid only being registered as a flu death.
In terms of how yearly cases of the flu are calculated. The yearly flu deaths are more of a statistical/modeling exercise than they’re an actual count. Each year epidemiologists will look at the number of deaths that occur during flu season versus the number of deaths for previous years paired with data on the number of deaths in hospitals. Based on previous data of how many cases there typically are in the community per death recorded an estimate of the number of yearly flu cases is calculated.
So when you have a case of the flu that doesn’t require hospitalization it will not be recorded but your case and others like it are accounted for in the models estimates of flu cases.
I would imagine most covid deaths are being captured in the US but you’re right about the number of confirmed cases being significantly lower than reality. After this pandemic is over we will have a better understanding of what percentage of cases are asymptomatic and we will be able to make rough estimates of how many cases there actually were.
I would be more than happy to help out with any other questions.
-your neighborhood infectious disease epidemiologist
Was going to come back and say essentially this. In addition to the excellent post by gully much, I don't much to add, other than I'm sorry to the OP if my initial response came across as snide. I'm just exhausted and frustrated by all the "it's just a flu, bro" trolls here and in real life. Such an uninformed and fatuously cavalier attitude towards this is what caused the country not to take this seriously when we actually had a chance to contain it.
Not at all (it didn't). I can understand your frustration, and how my question may have been misinterpreted as bait to argument.
There are a few hospitals being overwhelmed because the cases are concentrated in a few areas. 95% of the hospitals in US are currently overstaffed because so many patients are cancelling regular appointments.
run more not less wrote:
There are a few hospitals being overwhelmed because the cases are concentrated in a few areas. 95% of the hospitals in US are currently overstaffed because so many patients are cancelling regular appointments.
Source?
GOML wrote:
Because. This. Isn’t. Just. A. Bad. Flu.
It’s much worse.
Repeat that as necessary until it sinks in.
Signed,
A frustrated physician
Also, NONE of the other illnesses that happen are not happening because of the Coronavirus. Hospitals always run fairly close to capacity. This is an unexpected bump in demand that easily is overwhelming some hospitals. Also, the extra demand can’t be shunted off to another nearby hospital because they are experiencing the same increasing demand for beds.
gully much? wrote:
The number is closer to 400,000 being hospitalized each year. 800,000 is the extreme end of the range not often seen.
This season, there were 310,000 hospitalizations as of 3/5.
Now, flu season is Oct 1 - Mar 31, but a only a small percentage of cases occur in Oct & Nov. But nevertheless, flu season is a fairly consistent wave that is understood and planned for. Generally, the average flu stay is 4.3 days.
So, let’s do some math. Of the 400,000 flu cases, 90% occur across Dec to Mar. That’s 360,000 hospitalizations in 120 days. That’s 3,000 per day. So for example, last week, the flu would have created the need for (21,000 x 4.3) 90,300 days of hospitalized care across the country.
The average Covid 19 stay is about twice that (8.0). There were (estimated) 25,000 Covid hospitalizations last week, generating the need 160,000 days of hospitalized care.
So, not only is Covid acutely more taxing than the flu, that’s just half the story. The other half of the story is that flu hospitalizations still exist. So, these aren’t cases generated in a vacuum, these people are going to hospitals that already have beds taken by the flu.
So, in summary, last week alone would there was a more than 2x need to support respiratory patients and this upcoming week looks like it might be 5x or more if the growth continues. Hospitals don’t have exponentially large staffs.
Great post. Thanks
Icouldbeyourmom wrote:
I wonder this too. Right now Covid deaths are being over reported and flu deaths underreported...
You are wrong. Someone who actually knows what they're talking about already addressed this upthread.
Help me to understand wrote:
Fugu-
Thanks for sharing some information on this situation. I have read that many teenagers don't have an enzyme that is necessary and needed for the Corvid 19 virus to infect them, is that true?
Second question- if two or three teenage runners in an area that has few to zero positive Corona tests would go out for a run together and stay six feet apart for the majority of the run, and don't touch each other while running or after finishing the run, and don't touch anything while running, and don't touch others while running, how might they become infected?
How long can the virus live on clothing and does cold impact it (thinking below freezing) ?
I have not seen any answers to my questions. Just trying to gather some facts and better understand this situation.
Thanks in advance for your responses.
gully much? wrote:
Giles Corey wrote:
800,000 Americans hospitalized with the flu each year.
No stories of hospitals being overwhelmed.
Covid -- hard to get a hard number but surely no more than 20k to 30k hospitalized in Amercia so far.
All sorts of stories of hospitals being overwhelmed.
The number is closer to 400,000 being hospitalized each year. 800,000 is the extreme end of the range not often seen.
This season, there were 310,000 hospitalizations as of 3/5.
Now, flu season is Oct 1 - Mar 31, but a only a small percentage of cases occur in Oct & Nov. But nevertheless, flu season is a fairly consistent wave that is understood and planned for. Generally, the average flu stay is 4.3 days.
So, let’s do some math. Of the 400,000 flu cases, 90% occur across Dec to Mar. That’s 360,000 hospitalizations in 120 days. That’s 3,000 per day. So for example, last week, the flu would have created the need for (21,000 x 4.3) 90,300 days of hospitalized care across the country.
The average Covid 19 stay is about twice that (8.0). There were (estimated) 25,000 Covid hospitalizations last week, generating the need 160,000 days of hospitalized care.
So, not only is Covid acutely more taxing than the flu, that’s just half the story. The other half of the story is that flu hospitalizations still exist. So, these aren’t cases generated in a vacuum, these people are going to hospitals that already have beds taken by the flu.
So, in summary, last week alone would there was a more than 2x need to support respiratory patients and this upcoming week looks like it might be 5x or more if the growth continues. Hospitals don’t have exponentially large staffs.
QFE
Tribe wrote:
best post ever wrote:
+1
+2. Really great post. And add that corona epicenters like NYC are seeing even larger relative surges.
Wait. 360,000 hospitalizations for the flu totals only 90,000 days of hospital care? 6 hours is the average stay?
...and 25,000 covid hospitalizations last week, with only 2,900 serious/critical cases reported?
coronasceptic wrote:
Wait. 360,000 hospitalizations for the flu totals only 90,000 days of hospital care? 6 hours is the average stay?
Try reading the post again. The estimate of 90,000 days of hospital care was what would be generated by ONE WEEK of flu cases.
This explains why so many people seem to be skeptical of whether coronavirus is really a big deal: they're morons.
gully much? makes some really good points as to why this is different and also additive to the flu response put on by hospitals. There is one other major reason why hospitals do not get overwhelmed by the flu. We have a fairly effective vaccination for flu. The protocols that have to be put in place at a hospital to protect staff and patients from catching COVID 19 are extremely taxing to medical practices. Also, when staff are unknowingly exposed to a COVID patient (i.e. an apparently healthy person comes into a clinic to have a broken arm casted, and then tests positive the next day) all of the personnel that were not fully decked out in PPE need to self quarantine. There is not enough proper PPE to suit up for each "healthy" patient such as a mom bringing her new born in for a necessary one week check up. Huge burden on staff to prepare and cover these staffing nightmares, and as numbers increase in our community, the problem get worse and worse for healh care operations. For flu, everyone in the hospital/clinic is vaccinated, so when a flu patient is present, it is a totally different scenario and not that big of a deal.
podfinder wrote:
coronasceptic wrote:
Wait. 360,000 hospitalizations for the flu totals only 90,000 days of hospital care? 6 hours is the average stay?
Try reading the post again. The estimate of 90,000 days of hospital care was what would be generated by ONE WEEK of flu cases.
This explains why so many people seem to be skeptical of whether coronavirus is really a big deal: they're morons.
Right - I did miss that point.
But where did the number of 25,000 hospitalizations last week come from?