Aussiestatman wrote:
Canada Girl wrote:
Very optimistic, to assume this pandemic will have calmed down by the fall, when there still won’t be a vaccine.
Are there still deaths in China? Is four months the length, even if you flatten the curve?
Since feb 26, China has recorded less than 50 deaths each day. Is their lockdown still on? Their airlines seem to be back flying. Are they just under-recording their stats to say to the world they are over it?
Aussiestatman wrote:
After the Olympics:women 8 August, men 9 August, it goes:
Sept 13 Copenhagen half
14 Boston
20 Istanbul half
27 Berlin
Oct. 4. Cardiff half
London
11. Chicago
17 World half, Gdynia, Poland
More in a min
To while away the time until we get elite lists for these first events after the virus is controlled, I thought I might list my current top 15 or 25 or 40 men and women marathoners, one each per day.
Wherever his team decides he runs, Kipchoge will be favourite. Holder of the WR, only man under two hours under any conditions, and winner in London last year are enough reasons to choose him first among his peers. Even in a world champs year like 2019, London was where most of the major players congregated. London in spring then the Olympics was the first plan, now we wait to see where he chooses.
Aussiestatman wrote:
Wherever his team decides he runs, Kipchoge will be favourite. Holder of the WR, only man under two hours under any conditions, and winner in London last year are enough reasons to choose him first among his peers. Even in a world champs year like 2019, London was where most of the major players congregated. London in spring then the Olympics was the first plan, now we wait to see where he chooses.
Similarly, Kosgei is the holder of the WR and winner from London. Brigid showed some vulnerability by losing over the half at RAK to Yeshaneh, but I believe at that time Kosgei’s focus was on London. For me, Brigid is unbeatable over the classic distance unless illness or injury are a factor.
Aussiestatman wrote:
Aussiestatman wrote:
Are there still deaths in China? Is four months the length, even if you flatten the curve?
Since feb 26, China has recorded less than 50 deaths each day. Is their lockdown still on? Their airlines seem to be back flying. Are they just under-recording their stats to say to the world they are over it?
China reopened parts of their economy. But the virus is showing up again. I read they recently reversed course and shut down movie theaters again after they had been reopened.
I’m pretty sure large road races are going to be one of things to get priority as the USA begins to open things back up.
One of the LAST things to get priority. Large masses of people breathing all over each other.
Aussiestatman wrote:
Wherever his team decides he runs, Kipchoge will be favourite. Holder of the WR, only man under two hours under any conditions, and winner in London last year are enough reasons to choose him first among his peers. Even in a world champs year like 2019, London was where most of the major players congregated. London in spring then the Olympics was the first plan, now we wait to see where he chooses.
Last line should include ‘for this year’ somewhere in it.
Icouldbeyourmom wrote:
One of the LAST things to get priority. Large masses of people breathing all over each other.
Start with elite events only, like Tokyo
How will all these postponement affect the Abbott world majors scoring? With all the marathons moved to the fall, do the people who ran Tokyo get an advantage? They get to run 2 races while the rest gets in only a fall marathon.
Bekele is only two seconds outside the WR and he wins against all his peers except one. Somewhat strangely, I think hypothetically that if he runs the same course as Kipchoge, he not only won’t win but 3, 4, or 5 on my list could beat him into third as he gets run off his feet.
Aussiestatman wrote:
Aussiestatman wrote:
After the Olympics:women 8 August, men 9 August, it goes:
Sept 13 Copenhagen half
14 Boston
20 Istanbul half
27 Berlin
Oct. 4. Cardiff half
London
11. Chicago
17 World half, Gdynia, Poland
More in a min
To while away the time until we get elite lists for these first events after the virus is controlled, I thought I might list my current top 15 or 25 or 40 men and women marathoners, one each per day.
Ruth Chepngetich is by far second best ATM. Her duel with Worknesh Degefa in Dubai last year proved that. Both through halfway in 68.10, together until 35k then Ruth took only 16.09 to get to 40k and led by 13 sec at that point.
Aussiestatman wrote:
Bekele is only two seconds outside the WR and he wins against all his peers except one. Somewhat strangely, I think hypothetically that if he runs the same course as Kipchoge, he not only won’t win but 3, 4, or 5 on my list could beat him into third as he gets run off his feet.
Lawrence Cherono won Boston and Chicago last year. At Boston he beat the man who subsequently won the worlds. Chosen number one at year end by this site in their rankings.
Aussiestatman wrote:
Aussiestatman wrote:
To while away the time until we get elite lists for these first events after the virus is controlled, I thought I might list my current top 15 or 25 or 40 men and women marathoners, one each per day.
Ruth Chepngetich is by far second best ATM. Her duel with Worknesh Degefa in Dubai last year proved that. Both through halfway in 68.10, together until 35k then Ruth took only 16.09 to get to 40k and led by 13 sec at that point.
Third then is Degefa after winning Dubai this year. Worknesh was halfway then in 68.36, 1.29 in front. Even at 5k in 16.22 was seventeen seconds ahead of a pack of 14 including a Mexican. The quickest 10k of the event was next: 32.10, which put her already 80 sec ahead of the peloton of ten.
Aussiestatman wrote:
Aussiestatman wrote:
Bekele is only two seconds outside the WR and he wins against all his peers except one. Somewhat strangely, I think hypothetically that if he runs the same course as Kipchoge, he not only won’t win but 3, 4, or 5 on my list could beat him into third as he gets run off his feet.
Lawrence Cherono won Boston and Chicago last year. At Boston he beat the man who subsequently won the worlds. Chosen number one at year end by this site in their rankings.
If he ran second behind cherono in Boston by two sec, he must be next: Lelisa Desisa.
Aussiestatman wrote:
Aussiestatman wrote:
Lawrence Cherono won Boston and Chicago last year. At Boston he beat the man who subsequently won the worlds. Chosen number one at year end by this site in their rankings.
If he ran second behind cherono in Boston by two sec, he must be next: Lelisa Desisa.
Current world champion and will be for another two years after it was announced that the next world champs will be 2022 now.
Fourth woman is Roza Dereje, third in London then winning the amazing Valencia event. In Spain was at halfway with two others in 69.18.
Edinburgh marathon sept 6
Aussiestatman wrote:
Bekele is only two seconds outside the WR and he wins against all his peers except one. Somewhat strangely, I think hypothetically that if he runs the same course as Kipchoge, he not only won’t win but 3, 4, or 5 on my list could beat him into third as he gets run off his feet.
Fifth on my list and last of those capable of usurping Bekele as second to the GOAT in a fall marathon is Mosinet Geremew, runner up in both of the most influential events last year. He might even win a major if he dodges all four I rank above him.
Aussiestatman wrote:
Fourth woman is Roza Dereje, third in London then winning the amazing Valencia event. In Spain was at halfway with two others in 69.18.
After Roza is Ashete Bekere, winner in Rotterdam and Berlin. In the Dutch event was thru halfway right on 71 min then her fastest 5k split of 16.38 between 25 and 30k put paid to any competition.
Sixth ranked in my eyes is Birhanu Legese, winner in Tokyo last year and second in Berlin.