They could run in thongs.
They could run in thongs.
I'm serious. I think you're failing completely to take into account the absence of solar heating. That's a straight trade off against the absolute values of heat / humidity.
I could be wrong of course, and the way the race is run in terms of tactics will be equally important. But I think we could be surprised.
humidifryer wrote:
Hard to tell if you're serious. If you are, perhaps you have not experienced dewpoints like this. Not many people have.
In Osaka 2007, the dewpoint was 72F with temp of 82F at the start of the men's marathon. Realize that the dewpoint in Doha is expected to be 81F and the temp 90F, so far far worse!
The winner in Osaka ran 2:15:59. One-third of the field DNF'ed. 2:20 was in the top 10.
The winner that day only had a PB of 2:08:52. Dan Robinson from the UK had a PB of 2:13 and ran 2:20 that day and we Brits hate the hot weather normally! Yes, not everyone ran well, but a 7 minute delta in the sun for a champs race isn't that bad.
I'm sure we'll see some collapses and some will push themselves too hard. But I'll eat my hat if the men's race is slower than 2:20.
I'm sure we'll see some collapses and some will push themselves too hard. But I'll eat my hat if the men's race is slower than 2:20.[/quote]
Well now you've gone from predicting sub 2:10 to this. Looking like men's conditions slightly better than women's forecast. They've got beau coup bucks in Qatar and I'm sure they are pulling out all the stops to mitigate heat as best as possible. If they can air condition an outdoor stadium they can put cold water misters all over that marathon loop. It's gonna be a scene man.
What are your predictions for women's race? 2:35?
Alll wrote:
What are your predictions for women's race? 2:35?
I think 2:35 is reasonable, or somewhere in that range. I agree most people here are underestimating the heat. Yes the sun is important but in these conditions your body physically cannot cool itself down. Sweating will not work at all.
My guess would be around 2:40. That heat is brutal. Plus runners might start a bit more cautiously because of it.
Does this prove that ultra runners at Badwater are tougher, thus, better runners than marathon runners?
Horrible. Just hope no one dies or collapses and does permanent damage to their body. I predict lots of runners go out too fast and the winner will be someone who was way off the lead at the half.
larkimm wrote:
I'm serious. I think you're failing completely to take into account the absence of solar heating. That's a straight trade off against the absolute values of heat / humidity.
I could be wrong of course, and the way the race is run in terms of tactics will be equally important. But I think we could be surprised.
I think you are completely negating the effects of 80+ dew points, sun or no sun you're going to be hotter than hell and performances are going to tank.
If a women breaks 2:30 in that weather it will be the greatest women's marathon performance of all time.
womens winner will be 2:45:02
Well the forecast has improved slightly, it will only feel "105" at the start.
yeah that sounds dangerous. they should cancel the race. no point in putting people in harm's way.
electron1661 wrote:
yeah that sounds dangerous. they should cancel the race. no point in putting people in harm's way.
Pansy, all of you complaining are a disgrace to this sport.
I can't imagine how unbearable it will be even without the sun.
I got a couple of early morning runs in on a vacation in Turks and Caicos (around sunrise so not a lot of heat from the sun). It was in the low 80s with 80% humidity and it was awful.
Conditions sound a lot like the marathon segment at the Ironman in Kona. Minus the baking sunlight, the 2.4 mile swim and 112 mile bike ride before it. Just saying....
You guys cry so much over the weather! EVERYONE has to deal with it and train for it. I guess that's what separates the ones who race in Doha and the ones who get on LR and complain about someone else's race.
AND the Olympic Trials in Atlanta had a track temp of 120+ in my event and not one of us complained about it.
Huh??? wrote:
You guys cry so much over the weather! EVERYONE has to deal with it and train for it. I guess that's what separates the ones who race in Doha and the ones who get on LR and complain about someone else's race.
AND the Olympic Trials in Atlanta had a track temp of 120+ in my event and not one of us complained about it.
You do realize any track event does not even remotely equal to the need to cool down in a marathon correct? This proves this is just a troll.
As to lack of sun, yes that helps. I think the sun is "worth" 10 degrees. I've run long runs in 85+80 before and it unbelievably miserable. I cannot imagine running a marathon in worse.
They should all walk the first lap in protest.
I really hope they chat beforehand and do something like was mentioned before in "jog the first 5 laps" where they encourage each other and show comradery through this death march, then it is everyone for themselves the last 2 laps.
Praying no one gets seriously affected in the race.
Bad water 135 wrote:
Does this prove that ultra runners at Badwater are tougher, thus, better runners than marathon runners?
Not comparable for a couple reasons. Number one, ultra runners are going slow, so they're producing less metabolic heat than a marathon runner who is moving much faster and burning energy at a much higher rate. Second, the dew point in death valley is like 50 degrees compared to about 83 for the marathon tonight. Your body can cool through conduction, convection and evaporation. Given that the average human skin temperature is 91, and the air temperature for tonight's race is in the 90s, that pretty much shuts down convection and conduction and leaves the athletes solely with evaporation, which only has about a 10 degree delta T to work with, which isn't much. The runners will be dependent upon ingesting cold beverages and sweat to cool off (misters are not going to do a whole lot because the mist will still be in the mid 80s because mist pretty much hits the wet bulb temperature). What will likely happen is a number of runners' core temperature will hit 104, they will initially cramp up and if they try to continue their hypothalamus will give up trying to regulate against the heat and will force the body to shut down and they will faint. Ultra runners are idiots. I have known a few that have run themselves to strokes / TIAs.