Calling it now: Kate Grace - Grace will beat Ajee Wilson and win Birmingham DL 800

Right. Salazar's methods, and Wilson's beef, and she'll be very competitive!

Oh! He's here wrote:

Somjen wrote:

Big talkers like the OP never come back to eat crow. You're wasting your time.

Rojo is the biggest Kate Grace fan on here. He'll come back but not to this thread.

Yep, he is a fan boy . Any post mildly critical of her gets deleted. She is a tweener . Too slow for 800 , not enough strength for 15

Totally agree that Kate should join NOP. She’s an 800/1500 runner. Not a 1500 and up. Jerry’s training isn’t really working. Send her to Pete Julian and she’ll be 1:56/3:56 in no time.

But, this will never happen. With the animosity between BTC and NOP there’s no way Kate goes to NOP.

I'd rather her not join the evil empire, thanks.

Rojo definitely started this thread.

Kate Fan wrote:

If she doesn't make it to Tokyo, I'm pretty sure she will make the move from BTC. I hope it's to NOP.

She will be 32 in October 2020. If she wasn't fast enough for the Olympics, how marketable will she be?

Kate Fan 2 wrote:

Send her to Pete Julian and she’ll be 1:56/3:56 in no time.

Rojo, please. She's a 31 year old 1:58/4:03 runner.

Ha Ha, very funny wrote:

Kate Fan 2 wrote:

Send her to Pete Julian and she’ll be 1:56/3:56 in no time.

Rojo, please. She's a 31 year old 1:58/4:03 runner.

Mo Farah improved a ton at NOP late in his carrier. Just saying...

Kate Grace Fan 2 Totally Not Rojo wrote:

Ha Ha, very funny wrote:

Rojo, please. She's a 31 year old 1:58/4:03 runner.

Mo Farah improved a ton at NOP late in his carrier. Just saying...

I do not feel like looking at the charts, my guess, 1:58.xx 800m is superior to 4:03.xx 1500m. K Grace is an 800m runner. Eight-hundred metres is basically a young person event. Mohammed Farah and his success into his thirties is not the same as an 800m runner having success into one's thirties.

Her 800m is slightly better, 1193 vs. 1187 for her mile best and 1182 for the 1500. I also find it unlikely that a middle distance runner would improve at 31+ yo.

Athletes like this have overachieved for their coaching and support level. If this was her first year with BTC, it wasn't a great start but might still turn things around next year. I'd fully expect Julian/Salazar to wring another few seconds from her pr's. They are very good at taking talents like that below barriers. 1:58/4:03 would almost certainly become 1:56-57/3:58 next year if she moved now. It sounds unlikely but our best 1500m runners, aside from Slaney and Favor, have been slower at the 800m. BTC underraces and pays for it for many athletes, although they've had success with Friedrichs, Jager, and Houlihan in recent years.

zxcvzxvc wrote:

1:58/4:03 would almost certainly become 1:56-57/3:58 next year if she moved now. It sounds unlikely...

No. It sounds impossible...

Yea but Mo Farah ran 3:28 twice, a big improvement in his 1500 PR, under NOP in his thirties.

Sure, she could run sub 4 with her 800m speed. Muir ran 3:55 before she even broke 2:00. But if a 31 year old professional has not improved to a certain level in her 10 years or more of high level running, it seems fairly unlikely that she would improve now in the region around 4:00 where improvements become really hard.

I'd give her 3:59 while keeping her 800m 1:58-59 but even this is in no way guaranteed by better or more specific training. Bowerman strength/mileage based training? should have already achieved a better 1500m time than 4:03 with 1:58-59 speed.

She's getting a do-over in Paris on Saturday. So are we.

Make your predictions here:

https://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=9555488

Rowbury

2016 3:57.78 Zürich (SUI) 01 SEP 2016

2015 3:56.29 Monaco (MON) 17 JUL 2015

2014 3:59.49 Paris (FRA) 05 JUL 2014

(Rowbury joins NOP)

2013 4:01.28 Monaco (MON) 19 JUL 2013

2012 4:03.15 Stockholm (SWE) 17 AUG 2012

2011 4:05.73 London (GBR) 06 AUG 2011

2010 4:01.30 Paris-St-Denis (FRA) 16 JUL 2010

2009 4:00.81 Zürich (SUI) 28 AUG 2009

2008 4:00.33 Paris (FRA) 18 JUL 2008

2006 4:12.31 Bloomington, IN (USA) 01 JUL 2006

2005 4:14.81 Tallahassee, FL (USA) 23 APR 2005

2004 4:17.41 Chapel Hill, NC (USA) 08 MAY 2004

2003 4:28.40 Raleigh, NC (USA) 19 APR 2003

alanson wrote:

Rowbury

2016 3:57.78 Zürich (SUI) 01 SEP 2016

2015 3:56.29 Monaco (MON) 17 JUL 2015

2014 3:59.49 Paris (FRA) 05 JUL 2014

(Rowbury joins NOP)

2013 4:01.28 Monaco (MON) 19 JUL 2013

2012 4:03.15 Stockholm (SWE) 17 AUG 2012

2011 4:05.73 London (GBR) 06 AUG 2011

2010 4:01.30 Paris-St-Denis (FRA) 16 JUL 2010

2009 4:00.81 Zürich (SUI) 28 AUG 2009

2008 4:00.33 Paris (FRA) 18 JUL 2008

2006 4:12.31 Bloomington, IN (USA) 01 JUL 2006

2005 4:14.81 Tallahassee, FL (USA) 23 APR 2005

2004 4:17.41 Chapel Hill, NC (USA) 08 MAY 2004

2003 4:28.40 Raleigh, NC (USA) 19 APR 2003

... at age 30

Kate Fan wrote:

alanson wrote:

Rowbury

2016 3:57.78 Zürich (SUI) 01 SEP 2016

2015 3:56.29 Monaco (MON) 17 JUL 2015

2014 3:59.49 Paris (FRA) 05 JUL 2014

(Rowbury joins NOP)

2013 4:01.28 Monaco (MON) 19 JUL 2013

2012 4:03.15 Stockholm (SWE) 17 AUG 2012

2011 4:05.73 London (GBR) 06 AUG 2011

2010 4:01.30 Paris-St-Denis (FRA) 16 JUL 2010

2009 4:00.81 Zürich (SUI) 28 AUG 2009

2008 4:00.33 Paris (FRA) 18 JUL 2008

2006 4:12.31 Bloomington, IN (USA) 01 JUL 2006

2005 4:14.81 Tallahassee, FL (USA) 23 APR 2005

2004 4:17.41 Chapel Hill, NC (USA) 08 MAY 2004

2003 4:28.40 Raleigh, NC (USA) 19 APR 2003

... at age 30

A small point: Rowbury, like Grace, was born in October. So Rowbury was 29 when she first ran sub-4. Since Grace is 30 this year, she is already a year behind Rowbury in her quest to go sub-4.

But Kate Grace did not run 4:00-01 for three seasons at ca. 24 as Rowbury did. From this we could assume that Rowbury was more talented for the 1500m in the first place, years before NOP.

So the comparison doesn't really answer the question if there is more untapped 1500m potential or if she has reached plateau or peak in these events at 31.

Kate Fan wrote:

alanson wrote:

Rowbury

2014 3:59.49 Paris (FRA) 05 JUL 2014

(Rowbury joins NOP)

2013 4:01.28 Monaco (MON) 19 JUL 2013

2012 4:03.15 Stockholm (SWE) 17 AUG 2012

2011 4:05.73 London (GBR) 06 AUG 2011

2010 4:01.30 Paris-St-Denis (FRA) 16 JUL 2010

2009 4:00.81 Zürich (SUI) 28 AUG 2009

2008 4:00.33 Paris (FRA) 18 JUL 2008

... at age 30

This list shows that how different Rowbury and Grace are.

Rowbury was close to running under 4:00 way before she moved to NOP. Her pre-NOP PR, 4:00.33, was run when she was 23. This made her the 10th fastest American ever, right behind Uceny & Wysocki.

Grace was nowhere near running a 4:02, let alone a 4:00, before she got to BTC. She was quite a bit older than Rowbury when she ran her PRs. She got 800 PR when she was 27, and her pre-BTC 1500 PR when she was 28. Her PRs where nowhere near as impressive as Rowbury's, either. Grace's 800 PR put her 22nd on the list, right behind Phoebe Wright. Her 1500 PR, 4:03.59, tied her with Helen Schlachtenhalfen at 28th. Her post BTC PR, run this year, put her 19th on the all time list, right ahead of Colleen Quigley.

In other words, Grace has already had her Portland bump.