Forget Farah and Rupp, Geoffrey Kirui should be the favorite to win at Chicago.

Gametime wrote:

Parker Stinson FTW - you heard it here first........

Parker Stinson 10/10 to BTFU - you heard it here first......

Farah ftw wrote:

Mo ran 2:06 off 61 dead in 80 degrees 2 minutes behind Kipchoge. Mo can run 2:03 high low 2:04 and can sprint faster than anyone.

This. Mo ran 2:06:21 in a RACE, splitting a non-optimal, blowing-up ****1:01:03 / 1:05:18.**** And a crazy opening 5k in 13:48. (All this on a pretty hot day, though just 25C/75F at max, not 80F.)

Mo is clearly good for 2:05 if not 2:04 in perfect conditions, and has outkicked Rupp 100 times.

Rupp ran 2:06:07 in a Rupp-certified, Salazar-curated, perfect-weather time trial, splitting a near-perfect ****1:03:00 / 1:03.07,**** following behind a paced pack (with a personal pacer going to 28k and a pack together to 30k). He was raced by the #2 finisher until 40k.

There is no reason to think Rupp can run faster than he has already, since that is all he could do in perfect conditions (after many more marathon attempts than Mo).

If anyone beats Mo, it's not going to be Rupp. Galen has won only one major international race in his career, and this isn't going to be the second.

is it just me . i think the paced races are not nearly as exciting as races where runners compete with each other for at least 1/2 the race. Any of the top 3 or 4 could win. I hope the pacers drop out early. Looking at records, I first picked rupp or farah but kirui is maybe now my pick. he has 10k/5k speed not much slower than rupp and farah (who are almost identical from 5k to the full marathon ). kirui is a front runner (both boston's) and they cannot let him get away. Rupp was the only runner who stayed with him for about 21 miles in 2017 Boston and actually took a lead going up heartbreak. then he blew up a little and could only keep the margin he lost to kirui going down. i think Rupp is much more experienced now. really looking forward to the race and it is nice to read some verbage on this board that is not full of the drug smearing from so called experts. It is a fair course, very flat, most of the sharp turns are early. Let's hope for good weather and healthy runners.

Yuki

Updating: Paul Lonyangata (2:06 PB) is out of Chicago.

Good article. Thanks for the link.

Pack of 9 goes through half in 62:18. Last pacer drops at 25k and the pace slows to about 5:00/mile. Gemerew breaks the field open with a 4:35 22nd mile and only Farah and Karoki can go with. Farah and Gemerew run stride for stride until 50m remaining when Gemerew throws in the towel.

1. Farah 2:05:00 PB

2. Gemerew 2:05:02

3. Karoki 2:05:23 PB

4. Chumba 2:05:38

5. Kirui 2:05:47 PB

6. Rupp 2:05:54 PB

Mosinet Geremew

*Geremew

...damn