Kipchoge can break 2:00:00 within the rules

outofcontrolmaniac wrote:

I don't know, man. I actually think if everything was perfect he might be able to do it.

I think the biggest factor here that nobody is mentioning is the temperature. I'm not sure on the exact temps during Berlin, but I think I heard it started in the high 50s and rose to the mid 60s. I hate running when it's above 60 degrees, and I live in Maryland. I'd like to think elite Kenyans who are used to Kenya temps would prefer it even cooler than me. I think in Monza it was like 53 at the start? Maybe rose to the upper 50s by the end of the race? I can't remember that either, but I'd like to think ideal temp would be high 40s or right around 50...and overcast too. It was also pretty sunny in Berlin (or so it appeared).

Honestly, I might give him a full minute off of his Berlin time based on better temperatures and overcast skies alone...or at least 30-45 seconds.

Then we have to think about pacing. The thing is, we don't know the optimal way to run the best marathon. It's very possible that negative splitting, how he and Kimetto both have done, is the way to go. But when you negative split by over 30 seconds, and factor in that he had no pacers for almost the entirety of the second half, I think it's likely that he could have gone out harder with a faster result. Maybe run the first half in 60:30-60:45...who knows. And then, remember how hard he closed the last, what, like 2k? He was running sub 2:50s.

And then think about the extra distance ran/energy used running the turns, going to grab his drinks (like you mentioned, maybe he could benefit from a few less aid stations), and talking to the pacers, whether it's about speeding up, running in a different spot etc...

If he went to Monza again and had better temps, overcast skies, perfect legal pacing for 30k going out in maybe 60:15-60:20, shooting for a 59:45 second half...you never know if it could happen. There's a possibility he could have the best day of his life, there's also the possibility that he's slightly more fit than last year at Monza...simply from the fact that he's had 2-3 extra full marathon length efforts at around goal pace since before Monza. Having people hand him drinks rather than biking next to him at Monza wouldn't affect him at all I would think, so that's a non factor. Who knows.

it could happen... wrote:

Two years ago, I would have laughed at the possibility. But if Kipchoge ran Monza again and they modified it a bit to be within the rules, I actually believe he could break 2 now.

The only two conditions of Monza that made it illegal were the fluids and the pacers.

1. Considering how often he had fluids in Berlin (every 2.5km), it seems that they could legally create a setup where he could get bottles at regular intervals where it would not be an issue.

2. This would be the tricky part. If you select 15-20 sub-60, sub-2:06 Kenyans and pay them enough/train them enough to do a good job, he could have full drafting for at least 30k. Also, if you had a vehicle positioned in the right place, he could draft of the vehicle.

Finally, I think he could do it because he seems to still get better and better each marathon he does. He has 3 remarkable performances since the last sub2 attempt (all conditions considered), and has the zen wizard mental capacity to do it.

Monzoian wrote:

Timm wrote:

They said the same thing before Kipchoge took 1+ minute off of the old record.

No, you did, not me. I believed a sub 2:02 was possible, but now we are getting into a funny area, sub 2 hours.

He did run in very good conditions (no big head or tailwinds), with negative splits (not going out too fast), he pressed himself hard the last few kilometers, he didn't go backwards and with no health issues or running injuries.

With the turns, no geese formation protection, no line to follow, no help from other top athlete the whole way, I'd say what he did at Berlin is pretty darn close to what he did in his Sub 2 Attempt at Monza, very close.

People will argue, but there's a point where if it goes, it ain't going by much....and I truly think we are now "officially" at that point.

Monzoian wrote:

It was "all out" in very, very good conditions. What he did was remarkable, especially for the amount of time when he was on his own, with no one in front of him.

But, dropping about 4 seconds more for every mile on a "regular course" marathon is highly unlikely for quite some time. The stars aligned almost perfectly and he was super prepared.

Monza is like a track, a big track with no sharp 90 degree turns. Comparing that to a typical road race marathon is not the same. Could he do it at Monza, absolutely possible---how could it not be as he was so close.

But running Berlin, Rotterdam, Paris, etc...and dropping another 1:40 will be quite some feat.

Sorry, I think it'll be awhile. Regardless, when he does start to slow down a tad, who will be next? Kipchoge is rare, a very rare running from form, size, drive, ability over a wide range of distances, consistent, etc...not likely to see another one for quite some time.