Official Mary Cain's returning to racing discussion thread - Her 3k is today (July 16th)

GGJgjggjhghjhgj wrote:

Seems like a tough field for a multi year rust buster.

Wise?

I mean what is she going to do race an all comers meet somewhere? It's not like Dibaba is in this field. These are all runners that she should be competing with and was competing with/maybe even doing better than a couple years ago. If she's ready + fit why not come here and test things out in a race that might go 9:00-9:10? See where she's really at.

Cork or Dublin ... I called it over on this thread -

http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=8895931&page=1

Freitas is on fire this year. She will probably win in 8:50-low.

Mary will be doing well for a first race if she runs 9:10 or so.

BTW, this meeting is usually live streamed on Youtube and in the UK it's live on TV on the FreeSports channel.

remember that in 2014 she also:

-Won World Juniors over a current 8:32/14:36/3rd at World XC Kenyan and the current NCAA 1500m champ.

-Won USA indoors by 2.88 seconds over 1500m.

-Was 2nd at USA outdoors to world 1500m champ Jenny Simpson.

so it's not like 2013 was the only year she shined

Give me a break. First of all, she was a 17 year old kid at the time traveling with Oregon Project, and Hasay ran the 3k at that same meet. They were not just going to ship her off to Monaco to run solo. Also, if you're going to mention those who beat her in that 1500, it's only fair to mention that she clipped off Laura Muir and Morgan Uceny in the same race.

She's a big draw, for sure. She's wise to not jump right into DL meets, but I wouldn't be surprised to see her jump into one or two before this year is up.

go mary wrote:

She's a big draw, for sure. She's wise to not jump right into DL meets, but I wouldn't be surprised to see her jump into one or two before this year is up.

Cain is not a big draw in any race outside the US. She would not get into a DL meet right now unless they had a B heat of a 3k or something like that.

There are also only 4 more DL meets she can even qualify for, as she won't get into Brussels or Zurich.

anyway...I think she runs 9:16 for this 3k.

douglas burke wrote:

I was thinking there would either be a 1500 or a 3000 or a 5000, and giving her a lane is justified as she is a HUGE draw, her name alone brings fans and gets people talking just look at how many threads on here there were when she was running and even when not running.

She should get a DL start because a few dozen people post about her on letsrun.com?

goBronxvilleBronxers wrote:

remember that in 2014 she also:

-Won World Juniors over a current 8:32/14:36/3rd at World XC Kenyan and the current NCAA 1500m champ.

-Won USA indoors by 2.88 seconds over 1500m.

-Was 2nd at USA outdoors to world 1500m champ Jenny Simpson.

so it's not like 2013 was the only year she shined

Good point! I probably should have said "magic years."

I'm not sure what her 2014 record says about her drawing power. She didn't run in Europe at all. I always assumed that was because of timing (Worlds were in late July) or because racing in August didn't fit with her training schedule.

go mary wrote:

Give me a break. First of all, she was a 17 year old kid at the time traveling with Oregon Project, and Hasay ran the 3k at that same meet. They were not just going to ship her off to Monaco to run solo. Also, if you're going to mention those who beat her in that 1500, it's only fair to mention that she clipped off Laura Muir and Morgan Uceny in the same race.

If you are going to flash attitude, you really should have your facts straight. You don't.

1) Cain herself said Alberto was trying to get her into Monaco. As for her running "solo," Moser was there, so Cain wouldn't have been alone.

2) Also, I didn't mention anyone who beat her in the 1500 in London; I mentioned those who beat her in the 1000 in NY.

GGJgjggjhghjhgj wrote:

Seems like a tough field for a multi year rust buster.

Wise?

Agreed. What don't I know about her fitness? This will be interesting.

Go, Laura! wrote:

Cork or Dublin ... I called it over on this thread

Yep, you nailed it, unlike the MaryManiacs who think she's ready for the DL:

Go, Laura! wrote:

She ran in one of the Irish meeting before (can't recall if it was Cork City Sports or the Morton Games?) They're both coming up this month...and would probably be the right kind of level for her.

douglas burke wrote:

Darn, I was hoping she would run Monaco next week

hart crane wrote:

This isn't what I would expect for her first race back -- unless she is in 9:10 shape or better she could be way off the back. Maybe she is rabbitting.

Welcome to LetsRun, where a runner is either good enough to get invited to Diamond League Monaco or they aren't even in sub 9:10 3k shape, but nowhere is between

I'm a fan and would love to see her return to form and exceed all that she's done in the past. I don't understand comments like this, though. To whom is she a big draw in Europe? They're reported to be the most knowledgeable and enthusiastic track fans in the world, but does a former world junior champ from America who hasn't raced in two years really attract that much attention? And again--commenting on the process, not criticizing Cain--I don't think someone with her past few years' results can simply "jump into" a Diamond League meet. Agents from all over the world are pushing meet directors to let their athletes into the fields. I don't think she's anywhere near the celebrity status that would allow her agent simply to make a call and get her into a race. Twenty-nine women have run 3000m in 2018 faster than Cain's PR. Twenty-five have run 1500m in 2018 faster than Cain's PR. It wouldn't make sense for a DL meet director to let her in until she shows she's in peak form again. I hope she is, but if she's not approaching her lifetime bests then let's hope for a great fall, winter, spring, and some PRs and a WC team spot for her in 2019.

go mary wrote:

She's a big draw, for sure. She's wise to not jump right into DL meets, but I wouldn't be surprised to see her jump into one or two before this year is up.

Probably could have worded this better as I generally agree with you - I more meant to say that I wouldn't be surprised to see her run fast enough this year to warrent a spot in, say, Birmingham by the time August rolls around. Taking the broader view, however, it really doesn't matter too much for her this year. She just needs to try to return to racing shape right now, have a decent indoor season, and then focus on making a team next summer.

That'd be cool. I'd like to see her run fast enough to be confident going into a fall-winter-spring buildup that if things go well she could be a national contender again.

[quote]go mary wrote:

Probably could have worded this better as I generally agree with you - I more meant to say that I wouldn't be surprised to see her run fast enough this year to warrent a spot in, say, Birmingham by the time August rolls around. Taking the broader view, however, it really doesn't matter too much for her this year. She just needs to try to return to racing shape right now, have a decent indoor season, and then focus on making a team next summer.

[quote]

Will Cain run faster than the top US high school marks from the 2018 outdoor season?

Take 40 seconds off these 3200 times for the approximate 3000 time.

1. 10 Katelyn Tuohy 9:47.88 PR NY North Rockland May 12 Glenn Loucks Games

2. 10 Katelynne Hart 9:52.02 PR IL Glenbard West Apr 21 Sue Pariseau Invitational

3. 12 Olivia Theis 10:03.95 PR MI Lansing Catholic May 04 2018 Shepherd BLUEJAY Invite

4. 11 Ericka VanderLende 10:05.01 PR MI Rockford May 04 2018 Shepherd BLUEJAY Invite

5. 11 Emily Covert 10:06.19 PR MN Minneapolis Washburn Jun 09 MSHSL State Track & Field Championships

6. 12 Mariah Castillo 10:06.47 PR CA Saugus May 19 CIF-SS Division 2 Finals

7. 12 Madelynn Denner 10:08.01 PR CA Oak Ridge Apr 20 60th Annual Mt. SAC Relays (High School Day 1)

8. 12 Anne Forsyth 10:08.07 PR MI Ann Arbor Pioneer Jun 02 MHSAA LP Finals - Division 1

9. 12 Haley Herberg 10:09.54 PR CA Capistrano Valley May 19 CIF-SS Division 2 Finals

10. 12 Elena Denner 10:10.32 PR CA Oak Ridge Jun 02 CIF State Championship Finals

11. 12 Olivia O'Keeffe 10:12.56 PR CA Davis Jun 02 CIF State Championship Finals

12. 11 Adelyn Ackley 10:13.37 PR MI Hart May 04 2018 Shepherd BLUEJAY Invite

13. 12 Gillian Wagner 10:14.11 PR CA Redwood (Larkspur) Apr 07 Arcadia Invitational

14. 12 McKenna Brown 10:15.97 PR CA La Costa Canyon Apr 27 Escondido Invitational

15. 10 Jaden Theis 10:16.04 PR MI Lansing Catholic May 04 2018 Shepherd BLUEJAY Invite

16. 11 Kristin Fahy 10:16.45 PR CA La Costa Canyon Jun 02 CIF State Championship Finals

17. 12 Enyaeva Michelin 10:16.58 PR IL Evanston (Twp.) May 05 New Balance Invitational

18. 12 Elizabeth Funderburk 10:16.71 PR Unattached May 19 Georgia HS Meet of Champions

19. 12 Jacqueline Gaughan 10:17.05 NH Exeter May 18 Seacoast Championship

20. 10 Tori Gaitan 10:17.13 PR CA Great Oak May 19 CIF-SS Division 1 Finals

21. 10 Marlee Starliper 10:17.41 PR PA Northern May 04 Hoka One One Henderson Invitational

22. 11 Claudia Lane 10:18.68 CA Malibu Apr 20 60th Annual Mt. SAC Relays (High School Day 1)

23. 11 Sylvia Cruz-Albrecht 10:18.74 PR CA Oak Park Apr 20 60th Annual Mt. SAC Relays (High School Day 1)

24. 12 Camila Noe 10:18.99 PR MT Bozeman Apr 07 Arcadia Invitational

25. 10 Corie Smith 10:21.51 PR CA Buchanan Apr 07 Arcadia Invitational

26. 12 Abigail Green 10:21.97 PR MD Walter Johnson May 17 MPSSAA 4A West Region

27. 12 Sara Leonard 10:24.41 PR CA Canyon (Anaheim) May 26 CIF-SS Masters Meet

28. 12 Sophie Lasswell 10:24.52 PR TX Conroe Oak Ridge May 12 TX UIL 6A State Championships

29. 12 Jocelyn Long 10:25.01 PR IL Barrington May 19 IHSA 3A Girls State Track & Field Championships

30. 7 Lauren Ping 10:25.12 PR MN Cotter Apr 27 Hamline Elite Meet

31. 11 Sarah Shulze 10:25.23 PR CA Oak Park May 26 CIF-SS Masters Meet

32. 12 Sandra Pflughoft 10:25.32 PR CA Great Oak May 26 CIF-SS Masters Meet

33. 10 London Culbreath 10:25.87 TX McKinney North Apr 28 UIL 5A Region II (F-Sa)

34. 11 Fatima Cortes 10:25.90 PR CA Great Oak Mar 24 Azusa Meet of Champions

35. 12 Sarah Schmitt 10:25.95 PR IL Naperville (North) Apr 21 Sue Pariseau Invitational

36. 11 Mikaela Ramirez 10:26.18 PR CA Ayala Mar 24 Azusa Meet of Champions

37. 11 Meagen Lowe 10:26.32 PR CA Buchanan Jun 02 CIF State Championship Finals

38. 11 Adoette Vaughan 10:26.87 PR TX Hockaday Apr 20 SPC North Zone

39. 11 Rylee Robinson 10:27.22 PR MI Waterford Mott May 04 2018 Shepherd BLUEJAY Invite

40. 11 Kelsey Chmiel 10:27.23 NY Saratoga Springs May 12 Glenn Loucks Games

41. 12 Aubrey Frentheway 10:27.49 PR WY Cheyenne Central Apr 20 60th Annual Mt. SAC Relays (High School Day 1)

42. 11 Alyssa Wolf 10:27.57 PR OH Brunswick Senior Jun 02 OHSAA D1 State Championships

43. 9 Mia Barnett 10:27.82 PR CA Village Christian May 19 CIF-SS Division 4 Finals

44. 11 Emma Wilson 10:27.83 PR IN Greencastle Jun 01 IHSAA Girls State Track & Field Championships (OFFICIAL)

45. 12 Molly Born 10:28.80 KS Shawnee Mission Northwest May 26 KSHSAA State 6A Track & Field Championships

46. 12 Mari Friedman 10:28.94 PR CA Santa Cruz Mar 10 Wildcat Relays

47. 11 Kelli Hines 10:29.28 PR CA Mission Viejo Mar 24 Azusa Meet of Champions

48. 9 Audrey Suarez 10:29.58 PR CA Mayfield Mar 24 Azusa Meet of Champions

49. 9 Julia David-Smith 10:29.70 PR WA Issaquah Mar 29 Mt Si / Issaquah @ Bothell

50. 12 Yukino Parle 10:29.77 PR WA Edmonds-Woodway Apr 21 Eason Invitational

Overunder wrote:

Will Cain run faster than the top US high school marks from the 2018 outdoor season?

Take 40 seconds off these 3200 times for the approximate 3000 time.

Maybe 40 seconds off a 2 mile time but definitely not off a 3200m time.

10 minutes for 3200 converts to 9:20. So he is correct that 40 seconds is a good rule of thumb for girls. 9 minutes converts to 8:24 so 36 seconds for boys.

Predictor wrote:

10 minutes for 3200 converts to 9:20. So he is correct that 40 seconds is a good rule of thumb for girls. 9 minutes converts to 8:24 so 36 seconds for boys.

Ain't nobody running 40 second 200s. Even the extra fatigue from slightly longer race doesn't add 40 seconds.