Sub 3:40 mile will be broken within the next few years

Silverback wrote:

There has been no gigantic breakthrough in science or training in the last 10 years, yet now we get talk of a sub-26.

Yet the 10k record has dropped 23 seconds in that period. I bet you thought that nobody would ever break 26:30 back then.

My point wasn't to criticize the fact that you didn't mention chaos. No matter what model that gets developed, it will suffer from the fact that we haven't observed the phenomena (race times) for long enough in order to distinguish between (apparently) closely related models which certainly will predict very different long range outcomes.

I dont think 3:40 will be run anytime soon..... I think Hichams records will last for a fair while, and many of the top miling times will be around 3:45-3:49region.... running 3:43 takes a dam good athlete.... 3:40... dont even think about it!

If the mile was run as frequently around the globe as the 1500 we would likely see that sub 3:40 mile soon. How?

The WR for the 1500 is 3:26. Anyone with that ability would be able to sustain the effort for another 100 meters.

Therefore...55...1:50...2:45...plus 39.75 and we're at 3:24.75 for the 1500 and 3:40 for the 1600. Add another 1.5 for the makeup to the mile and we're at 3:41.5 now.

So with the talent base that we have...especially considering the EXTREMELY talented youth...and that magical 3:40 would be broken...but not if it's only run a couple times a year comparatively speaking.

Q

qucassidy, while I would tend to agree with your logic (on paper), I disagree we will see anything remotely close to a 3:41.5, let alone a sub 3:40 anytime soon based on genetic algorithms. Chaos really does not have much to do with it. Think about it. Look how long it took to break Coe's 800m record...and it was broken by what, .2+ tenths of a second (don't have actual time)? A runner who is capable of rolling thru the 1500 at 3:24.5 (which would be 1.5 seconds faster than the current world record) stands to "push" that last 100m in around 14-16, then add the 1.5 for conversion. That would be an incredible feat. However, I look at it as 2x800m runs + 1.5 seconds = mile. As we have seen, most top milers going after some record at a meet, will roll thru the 1st 800m somewhere between 1:50 - 1:52 and then hang on for the last half+. This "monster" would have to run at the very least 1:50 and come back with a 1:48.xx + 1.5 seconds to break the 3:40 barrier. El G, "the king of the mile," could not do it and no one in the near future can do it, no matter how "talented" our youth are now. As stated in a previous post, this runner would indeed be a "different" breed of human being based on genetic breeding and "history."

If it is worth a professional runner's opinion:

I have managed to run 3:50 and honestly, I feel that I am just now regaining the strength and dedication which I possesed at the High School level.

I will say this though: It is quite possible, and I belive in the near future, that someone will crack the 3:40 barrier, and I think it will occur within a short period of time. With so many up and coming runners who show the perserverence and mindest to run fast, time will only tell. 55 per quarter is do-able.

Regards, Alan

P.S. - Love all the threads about me. haha Take it easy, guys.

your slow. maybe if you quit spending all your time on message boards and started running you could represent america with pride. your a joke.

Maybe it's too much science-fiction for some of you but perhaps science could progress so far as to discover the gene for running ability and exploit it. I doubt this would catch on very quickly for the resource lacking sport of athletics before other sports like football for a fast 40y time. But the way some of you guys idolize Pre... maybe a Pre clone is not that far off.

Alan,

You are da man! I'm glad you enjoy the Webb vs. Ritz threads that seem to sprout up ever day or so. And its great that you guys will finally get to compete against each other as pros. Keep up the good work!

Thanks for posting and come back soon!

No problem, Webster, and thanks for the support. Guys like you keep me going every now and then when I have self doubts.

Regards, Alan

Like I said, Webb kills Ritz at Pre (well, not literally but on the track).

alan your the man