Murphy misses A standard

Pro wrote:

Can't go back to NCAA bc he accepted money. He is an unsigned athlete now

Ummm, the Rupp case proves you wrong--post-high school, pre-college, year "off."

800. wrote:

What if he doesn't hit it in the final? The finals are sit and kick races 99.9% of the time resulting in very slow times. So even if he wins the race, he doesn't go to the Games.

Not really, there are always guys trying to hit the standard in the trials making it a fast race. Winning time last trials was 3:35.

Fast Trials wrote:

800. wrote:

What if he doesn't hit it in the final? The finals are sit and kick races 99.9% of the time resulting in very slow times. So even if he wins the race, he doesn't go to the Games.

Not really, there are always guys trying to hit the standard in the trials making it a fast race. Winning time last trials was 3:35.

The Trials record is 3:35 (low) by Steve Scott from a million years ago. There is a reason why it has stood so many years...

Even at 3:35 (high) at the Trials in 2012, finals aren't run with running a fast time in mind. That year they came thru the 800 at a pedestrian pace and ran a blistering last 700. So yes, the winner ran under the standard (barely) but do you want to risk just missing it again? Is that a risk worth taking?

Look what happened last night. Perfect weather. No wind. A rabbit hitting the splits for him. All Clayton had to do was follow. No, no one pushed him in the last 200 but he admitted he was all out up that home stretch. He did have competition the first 1200 meters....the rabbit.

At Hayward Field the wind it notoriously strong on the backstretch. If he wants a fast pace, he'll more than likely have to set it and break the wind for the rest of the field and that is not his MO.

If he sits, as is his MO, he'll have to pray to Jesus Christ in heaven that the 2nd half of the race is fast enough to produce close to an All-Time Olympic Trials record. Unlikely.

And even if all the unlikely scenarios happen, he still needs to place in the top 3. And top 3 isn't a guarantee. There are other quality milers in the U.S. you know. Centro, Andrews, Blankenship and some others that are quietly having really good "under the radar" years as well as guys you simply can't count out like Leo.

If he's smart, he goes 800. For God's sake he can run a 400 as fast as any of the 800 guys but is significantly stronger. He has the A standard and international experience. He may be a 1:43 guy. That is much more competitive on the World scene than a 3:36 and remember he was gunning for a time at 3:36. Could he go significantly faster? Probably some day but right now? Not enough to get to a 1:43 level.

800. wrote:

Fast Trials wrote:

Not really, there are always guys trying to hit the standard in the trials making it a fast race. Winning time last trials was 3:35.

The Trials record is 3:35 (low) by Steve Scott from a million years ago. There is a reason why it has stood so many years...

Even at 3:35 (high) at the Trials in 2012, finals aren't run with running a fast time in mind. That year they came thru the 800 at a pedestrian pace and ran a blistering last 700. So yes, the winner ran under the standard (barely) but do you want to risk just missing it again? Is that a risk worth taking?

Uh, did you even watch the 2012 trials? There were literally 3 or 4 guy who intentionally made it a fast race. The fast time was not an accident.

Fast Trials wrote:

800. wrote:

The Trials record is 3:35 (low) by Steve Scott from a million years ago. There is a reason why it has stood so many years...

Even at 3:35 (high) at the Trials in 2012, finals aren't run with running a fast time in mind. That year they came thru the 800 at a pedestrian pace and ran a blistering last 700. So yes, the winner ran under the standard (barely) but do you want to risk just missing it again? Is that a risk worth taking?

Uh, did you even watch the 2012 trials? There were literally 3 or 4 guy who intentionally made it a fast race. The fast time was not an accident.

Great. If it was your athlete already having the A time in the 800 and knowing last year he ran Worlds, would you scrap the 800 and take the risk of banking on him running within a second of the All-Time Olympic Trials record and placing top 3 ? And being ok with knowing that if he doesn't get that time he is staying home when he already had that standard in an event he has a very realistic chance of winning?

800. wrote:

Fast Trials wrote:

Uh, did you even watch the 2012 trials? There were literally 3 or 4 guy who intentionally made it a fast race. The fast time was not an accident.

Great. If it was your athlete already having the A time in the 800 and knowing last year he ran Worlds, would you scrap the 800 and take the risk of banking on him running within a second of the All-Time Olympic Trials record and placing top 3 ? And being ok with knowing that if he doesn't get that time he is staying home when he already had that standard in an event he has a very realistic chance of winning?

I'm for not taking the risk. Man, the kid's still barely out of his junior year of college. I wouldn't put that kinda pressure on him and try to change things up so much in an Olympic year. It's not like he sucks at 800.

Looked up splits from the last trials final. They didn't really "go for it". It was an honest pace but actually a little slower than Clayton's pace yesterday. At 300 the leader hit 42. At 700 they had 1:42. At 1100 they hit 2:43 (Clayton was 2:41 yesterday). Then it took the best 1500 kicker we've seen in the U.S. In the last few years (Manzano) to muster up a fast enough finish to win it just a half second under the A standard. Too much of a risk to go for a time in I he final IMO.

You just can't take the chance if your Murphy. Why would you?

800. wrote:

Fast Trials wrote:

Uh, did you even watch the 2012 trials? There were literally 3 or 4 guy who intentionally made it a fast race. The fast time was not an accident.

Great. If it was your athlete already having the A time in the 800 and knowing last year he ran Worlds, would you scrap the 800 and take the risk of banking on him running within a second of the All-Time Olympic Trials record and placing top 3 ? And being ok with knowing that if he doesn't get that time he is staying home when he already had that standard in an event he has a very realistic chance of winning?

Yep This.

The 1500 is weaker this year but Murphy isn't ready for the move up the the world stage in it. He should stick with the 800. He already has Berian's number and who knows which Brazier or Symmonds will show up. He is practically a lock for the team.

800. wrote:

The finals are sit and kick races 99.9% of the time resulting in very slow times.

I know Spivey won the 1992 Trials in 3:36 low while Holman in second hit the Olympic standard in that race.

Jennings won 2000 in 3:35 high

Webb won 2004 in 3:36 low

They ran 3:36 mid back in 1976

Manzano hit the world standard in 2007 at the trials

I don't know where the 99.9% are very slow comes from.

It's almost a 50/50 shot of it being qualifying pace.

What are his best odds?

Top 3 in the 1500 while hitting the standard, or top 3 at all in the 800?

Tough either way but the 1500, the way he looks now, seems like a better percentage.

Star wrote:

800. wrote:

The finals are sit and kick races 99.9% of the time resulting in very slow times.

I know Spivey won the 1992 Trials in 3:36 low while Holman in second hit the Olympic standard in that race.

Jennings won 2000 in 3:35 high

Webb won 2004 in 3:36 low

They ran 3:36 mid back in 1976

Manzano hit the world standard in 2007 at the trials

I don't know where the 99.9% are very slow comes from.

It's almost a 50/50 shot of it being qualifying pace.

What are his best odds?

Top 3 in the 1500 while hitting the standard, or top 3 at all in the 800?

Tough either way but the 1500, the way he looks now, seems like a better percentage.

You've got to be kidding. All these times you mention are right at or above the 3:36.20 standard. For the winner. You've got a junior in college, unfamiliar with the event. And you are betting he wins the Olympic Trials and ekes out the standard as opposed to running an event he already has the standard in and is as consistent or more consistent at than anyone in the U.S.?

He's beaten the indoor World/National champ in the 800 this outdoor season. But he hasn't even raced a fit Centro, Andrews, Blankenship or Manzano yet at 1500.

I've got a great piece of swampland for you....

Hit the nail on the head I COMPLETELY AGREEE!!Clayton go for the 800 we know u can run a record time

Maybe Izaic Yorks will be in the 1500m final and bring them through in 2:53 or better.

Murphy is entered in the Brooks PR 1500 along with Wheating, Yorks, O'Lionaird and a few others. Murphy will get the standard there. Although there is a lot of speculation about his current 800m potential, his PR remains at 1:45. Can he go faster? Probably. He has a great chance to make the team in both. Let's say he runs 3:35 in at Brooks. In that case, he's in a similar situation to Robby Andrews. Andrews made the world's 1500 final last year. I can see Murphy making that final as well. Making the Olympic 800m final is a taller order. I don't think he would make that final.

Of course he wouldn't. Michael Rimmer of GB is an ex 1:43 guy who runs more like 1:44/1:45 now. I would be very surprised to see him make the Olympic final. There are lots of 1:44/1:45 guys around the world and most will get eliminated in the semis.

Murphy would be very lucky to go through, plus he's never broken 1:45 and might need a PB to even make the semis!

WTF makes you think he is a 1:43 guy?

The 800 has Berian, Solomon, Symmonds, Loxson. All can go faster than Murphy's PR at will.

The trials 800 won't go slow. The trials 1500 might. As an inferior runner to several contenders in either event, a slow race is his only hope. Therefore the 1500. If he was confident in making the 800 he wouldn't be chasing times in the 1500 two weeks before trials.

Murphy's best hope is to get the Oly time then luck out in a tactical 1500. After Centro and Manzano it will be a crapshoot of 3:35+ guys who shouldn't even go to the games.

You are such a tool. "A crapshoot of 3:35 guys who should' even go to the games", you say...

A 3:35 converts to a 3:52 mile. So a 3:52 miler should just stay home. Why am I even responding to the post of someone with no clue anyway?

Clayton has 44 split speed and 30 minute 10k strength. Yes he could run 1:43. Those are better credentials than most 1:43 guys. He should base his Trials event on what he thinks his potential is. At this point, I just think he is intimidated by the 800 field, including Brazier. That's why he's in panic mode to get the 3:36.20 Olympic standard.

weijfiwefh wrote:

The race is up on FloTrack. Murphy was the only one to go with the rabbit. These races are hyped-up for the pro to chase the A standard, yet they let the rabbits go and race like wimps week after week.

OTC should be ashamed.

Neither, Solomon, nor Symmonds, nor Loxsom can go 1:45 at will. Symmonds hasn't broken 1:47 this year, Cas has run poorly this year outside of that 600, and Solomon is having a rough year as well. Berian and Brazier are the only ones truly faster than him in his current shape. And Manzano isn't going to be top 3. I put his chances at 10 percent.