Mo Farah's 800m ability

stats.gangsta_the_real_1 wrote:

Mr. Obvious wrote:

Where does 26:40 come from? Use 26:46 as it is accurate

Maybe, maybe not. The 26:46 is only accurate if the pacing was good and it was run in some time proximity to his 1500m time.

Looking at

http://www.all-athletics.com/node/35632

It looks like his 26:46 was from FIVE YEARS ago. I'm too cautious to consider that an accurate reflection of his recent or current fitness. I feel like this is "obviously" (to use your name) frowned upon in the tip section on that calculator website where it says:

"the 2 times should represent concurrent ability. Times run more than a month apart may produce inaccurate results."

Forget a month apart, you're talking about FIVE YEARS!

I understand that, but I fail to see any justification for using a 26:30 as any sort of estimate. 26:50 looks like the fastest ou could possibly use and maybe provide estimates for 27 and 27:10.

I did read it yes, and I see your reasons.

However, the estimates you used wildly overestimated Farah's 1500m ability. He cannot run 3:26, 3:27 or even 3:28 flat. Watch the races where he ran 3:28.8 and 3:28.9, they were absolutely flat out with someone to chase the whole way. He even got overtaken in the 3:28.9 in the last 100m as he gave everything.

You need to use 3:28.5 as the absolute fastest he could have run.

His 10,000m ability is more difficult to determine I admit and could be the subject of much debate.

However his half marathon and 1500m were run 2 months apart, not a great deal of time and give probably the most accurate estimates of what kind of shape he was in. Not to mention he ran a half before and after his 3:28.9 1500m and both were in the 59:30 range.

Just looking at Farah run you can see he doesn't have the raw speed for 1:44.

Looking at someone is not reliable. Some people never looked stressed when they are running all out, some look like they are about to die. Instead of looking at him, look at his splits. I don't know what they are, so I just gave a range of estimates for his actual 1500m ability. Most people typically leave at least 1 second out on the track, so I gave a range of times 1-2 seconds faster than 3:28. If you have his splits, then I'll be glad to give you an estimate (or you can do it yourself by clicking on the "optimizer" link in the website).

Again, looking at his half times is unreliable. Look at his splits in those halves. That's the useful part. The overall time may be misleading.

I don't see how your eyesight is so good that you can tell a guy has the raw speed for 1:45.0 (what you suggested in your post) but not 1:44-high (what I loosely & non-confidently suggested in my post). You can really calculate down to the tenth of a second how much raw speed and 800m ability someone has just by looking at them?

Did Said Aouita '"look" like he had the raw speed until he actually did it?

You guys don't have a clue.

I think he's a 1:42.5 guy if he put his mind and Nike's best scientists to work on it.

Farah will never run 1:45.0, I was simply stating that could be his time given that everything was perfect, someone to chase and no wind etc.

I do not know his split times, but I would take two half marathons in 59:32 and 59:22 as good estimates as to his half marathon ability, over a completely arbitrary 10,000m time.

Using the different estimates of his 10km and fairly accurate 1500m time you get a range of estimates around 1:45/1:46.

The comment about Farah's appearance was referring to his very short stature and skinny body. To the other guy, Aouita was very much taller and heavier than Farah.

Take Aouita's longer times and convert them to 800...

Aouita was a midget. Taller and heavier? Pffff.

Metric Miler wrote:

To the other guy, Aouita was very much taller and heavier than Farah.

What does being taller and heavier have to do with anything???

Look at sprinters vs marathon runners.

catchy wrote:

Metric Miler wrote:

To the other guy, Aouita was very much taller and heavier than Farah.

What does being taller and heavier have to do with anything???

Metric Miler wrote:

Look at sprinters vs marathon runners.

catchy wrote:

What does being taller and heavier have to do with anything???

We're not talking about Marathon runners or sprinters.

How heavy is Aman? How heavy is Amos?

Here's Aouita against a bunch of guys who are all taller and heavier.

Metric Miler wrote:

Look at sprinters vs marathon runners.

You have a flawed obsession with looking at runners. Sprinters and marathoners come in a variety of sizes. Especially in the 800m. Some skinny guys are fast and some muscular guys are slow.

Ah Oui! wrote:

Metric Miler wrote:

Look at sprinters vs marathon runners.

We're not talking about Marathon runners or sprinters.

How heavy is Aman? How heavy is Amos?

Here's Aouita against a bunch of guys who are all taller and heavier.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UvLNzr1vX1w

Both much bigger than Farah standing at 5-5 and less than 55kg.

Anyway the point stands that Farah cannot run 1:44 and much less 1:43. 1:45 would be an impressive feat for a 10k guy who dabbles with the half marathon.

Most here would agree 1:45/1:46 is a fair and realistic estimate.

I can agree to disagree.

Metric Miler wrote:

Ah Oui! wrote:

We're not talking about Marathon runners or sprinters.

How heavy is Aman? How heavy is Amos?

Here's Aouita against a bunch of guys who are all taller and heavier.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UvLNzr1vX1w

Both much bigger than Farah standing at 5-5 and less than 55kg.

Totally irrelevant. They are all small men.

Metric Miler wrote:

Anyway the point stands that Farah cannot run 1:44 and much less 1:43. 1:45 would be an impressive feat for a 10k guy who dabbles with the half marathon.

Most here would agree 1:45/1:46 is a fair and realistic estimate.

I can agree to disagree.

Farah's best event is the 1500. His edge in long track events is being the best 800/miler in the field.

fastest sprinter in the field wrote:

Metric Miler wrote:

Anyway the point stands that Farah cannot run 1:44 and much less 1:43. 1:45 would be an impressive feat for a 10k guy who dabbles with the half marathon.

Most here would agree 1:45/1:46 is a fair and realistic estimate.

I can agree to disagree.

Farah's best event is the 1500. His edge in long track events is being the best 800/miler in the field.

Nah, Mo's sweet spot is clearly the 3k

crete wrote:

fastest sprinter in the field wrote:

Farah's best event is the 1500. His edge in long track events is being the best 800/miler in the field.

Nah, Mo's sweet spot is clearly the 3k

So was Aouita's..

3k is his best event, actually. Hence his indoor 2 mile record. He is probably good for 12:40 / 26:30 when peaked. Similar to Komen, but with slightly better speed & slightly worse endurance.

If he never ran the Monaco 1500, no one would be saying 1500 is his best event. And if he bothered to run an aggressive time trial 3k or 5k in July / August, he would run very fast.

People like myself & Renato recognize this:

Ah Oui! wrote:

crete wrote:

Nah, Mo's sweet spot is clearly the 3k

So was Aouita's..

Aouita's best event was the 1500.