We'll never know.....but we do know the collegiate system DID benefit people like Dave Wottle (gold) and Frank Shorter (gold) Joan Benoit (gold).....Craig Virgin (world xc champ) John Treacy (silver) Jim Ryun (silver) .........but Al Sal and Mary think it ain't good enough for them???
I am not a Cain fan, but I think she would have likely been 2nd.
Cranny had a fairly bad race. Her interview with Flotrack afterwards talks about it. She got stuck on an island between the two packs, the leaders and the chase, and ended up running much of the race alone. Cain is a lot better than Cranny at this point, so I think she would've been up with that first group the whole time, and no one can kick like she can.
a9u9 wrote:
We'll never know.....but we do know the collegiate system DID benefit people like Dave Wottle (gold) and Frank Shorter (gold) Joan Benoit (gold).....Craig Virgin (world xc champ) John Treacy (silver) Jim Ryun (silver) .........but Al Sal and Mary think it ain't good enough for them???
Six examples from years ago. Another generation, different circumstances. Are you familiar with the concept of silent evidence? If you don't consider the possible "cemetery" (those who did not benefit) (and the burden is on you to do so) your assertion is biased and inaccurate. In probability you must consider all eventualities as much as possible.
Y'all vastly underestimate talent. Yes, Cain likely would have won, but Avery was the best to show up. It will be interesting to see what happens with Kate from here; she's obviously on the wrong side of the line when it comes to weight. It worked, but her body is going to be in major meltdown mode if she doesn't get that in check.
How many years would it take her to win it, then?
I say ... one or two more. It would depend on whether she wanted to switch to the 5k in about the same time frame (21-22) at the end of college.
What about other track/XC titles she'd have gotten in four years? Possibly a dozen. But if she can get a World or XC medal, it could be worth skipping all that. The junior 3k champ can be a good indicator for the future, too. Shoot, if she can beat the best African 18 year olds in a sprint, that's a good sign.
But really, how much better are her chances at better employment / lifestyle considering she skipped college? I've been around some pro runners who just live the lifestyle, and it seems pretty tough. When you're done running it would be nice to have lots of options.
And I suppose all that is out the window if she wins an Olympic gold. (Although that seems like a strange gig as well.)
I would have taken Cain over the field at 1/1 if that was a bet I could have made. I would bet a whole lot on her in a track 5k vs anyone in NCAA so a xc 6k I still think she wins. This is a hypothetical if she were training for the race though.
no, even with ALS training
The thing to remember about Cain is her ability to rise to the occasion. Many here were giving her season last rites in June when she ran a few rough 800s, then she bounced back to get second to Simpson (by less than 2 seconds, while Alexa faded) at USAs, then went on to drill the Ethio girls at Eugene. The girl has what it takes to win at any level. Not a lock at NCAAs, but definitely a threat to win.
ksoso wrote:
JP Morgan wrote:Well, Spiro, I'd say she'd have stood a damn fine chance. She is the world junior champion over 3k and has wicked sprint speed.
"World junior champion over 3k" is meaningless. What was the time?
Actually 'World Junior Champion over 3k' isn't meaningless at all. It means she won the race. Time means nothing when you win.
It doesn't take a lot of research to conclude that Mary Cain by all accounts is capable of a sub-15 5K; Huddle, Flanagan and Simpson are perhaps the only Americans who could beat Cain in a 5K. Most of the NCAA all-American's are mid-16 5K types. To think as some have suggested that Cain would have only finished in the top-10 is crazy. I am sure Cain and AlSal are laughing at that thought. Cain does training runs at 6 mpm, talks while she is running, does plyos and weight training afterwards and comes back again and runs just as hard the next day. This is middle distance build up training for AlSal, and anything less than that you can't be an NOP athlete. Most of the top U.S. elites can't handle AlSal's training and it's not watered down much for Cain. I was told by a member of the group that when the schedules match up, Cain basically does the same training as everyone else, her volume is a little less, but she is pretty good on long runs.
I watched Cranny beat some of the best NCAA athletes early in the season and Cain is heads and shoulders above Cranny. Cain is a world class athlete, "an elite", the girls in the NCAA cross race have sat at home watching Cain run on television. African juniors are about equal to if not better than the NCAA and Cain dominated the Kenyan junior XC champ in a track 3K. Avery's performance was outstanding, but outside of perhaps the top-15, this year's NCAA Champ was equal to the top end of NXN or Footlocker. Except for the winner, NCAAs was not as competitive as past years and had Cranny run up to her potential, she should have finished top-5. If Efraimson had run, she probably would have been top-3. The way Avery ran hard from the beginning and never backed off, I don't think Cain could have beaten her, but I can't see Cain not finishing second.
Unjuiced, I think Cain is probably somewhere from 6th-10th.
In her current form, she's 2nd or 1st.
v6 wrote:
Unjuiced, I think Cain is probably somewhere from 6th-10th.
In her current form, she's 2nd or 1st.
Cain split a 2:03.xx 800 as a freshman in HS. Think about that. What juice do you think she's on? Sunny D?
And her 1500 PR is nearly 20 seconds faster than Avery's.
And she's naturally extremely thin, whereas Avery has to really work for it.
To think Cain would have been anything other than 1st or 2nd at worst is to misunderstand the sport.
Avery raced less and was fresh and fast when it mattered. Her rivals, especially Houlihan suffered from over racing, but that's the NCAA for you.
Cain and Efraimson are out of the meat grinder.
I agree that Cain would have been no worse than 2nd and that's only if she didn't go with Avery when she made her break. If she goes with Avery at the break, then she likely runs on her shoulder and whoops her at the end. Avery's tactic worked against an obviously weaker field, but would have just made her a rabbit for Cain.
Yep I agree with this. On a good day Cain finishes second. Avery is probably better over longer stuff. Avery = Hasay in terms of 5k ability. So if you think Hasay would beat Cain, so would Avery.
Shoebacca wrote:
I agree that Cain would have been no worse than 2nd and that's only if she didn't go with Avery when she made her break. If she goes with Avery at the break, then she likely runs on her shoulder and whoops her at the end. Avery's tactic worked against an obviously weaker field, but would have just made her a rabbit for Cain.
So you think Cain could go with the break? I'm not sure this is true. Would you then agree that Cain could beat Jordan Hasay in a 5k if she trained for it? Avery is as fast as Hasay over the 5k distance.
MatthewXCountry wrote:
[quote]Shoebacca wrote:
I agree that Cain would have been no worse than 2nd and that's only if she didn't go with Avery when she made her break. If she goes with Avery at the break, then she likely runs on her shoulder and whoops her at the end. Avery's tactic worked against an obviously weaker field, but would have just made her a rabbit for Cain.
I don't think Cain is a natural distance runner and doesn't trains for 6k XC, clearly she can race up to 5K as a world class athlete, but I think her performance falls off at 5K. But, just any world class miler can compete with the best NCAA cross runners in a range of distances. Cain could compete at the NCAA level in the 400m and even the 10K based on talent.
If Avery had run that race any other way, if she had backed off for just half a K, Cain could have won that race. But, I don't think Cain right now could have pushed that hard for that long and would have fallen off the pace at some point. Btw, Cain and Hasay in a 5k is a toss up.
Avery won by 8 seconds over a woman with pr's of 4:20 & 16:24.
Cain is NOT a 6k XC type... Was she in HS, YES, but now? No...
What I'm really confused about is, it seems like ever since Alberto started training her, her endurance has lacked...
I think he's emphasized speed so much to the point where her aerobic threshold at certain distance have been lacking...
She's starting to turn more into a speed based 1500m runner, while Cranny seems to be more of the endurance based 1500m runner...
Tbh, I don't think she would have beat Cranny at this past NCAA's; I think she would have started out towards to the front like Dominique Scott did when Avery started to break, but then she would have faded off the back...
JP Morgan wrote:
ksoso wrote:"World junior champion over 3k" is meaningless. What was the time?
Actually 'World Junior Champion over 3k' isn't meaningless at all. It means she won the race. Time means nothing when you win.
No. Time is the only way to compare how she would do in ANOTHER race. A title can't be used to make such a comparison or prediction like this.