12:45.xx would be an outstanding mark for him (and well...for anyone else). sometimes I think that peeps on these boards get lost in the hypothetical numbers a bit too much and forget the physical difficulties involved in those performances. There are reasons that ONLY 3 guys have run under 12:40 and it is not lack of desire or laziness. Try and 'real up" just a bit...
Blame ventolin. People actually believe the rubbish they read that are his posts.
I'm using ventolins calculator. WORLD RECORD is 12.37.35
3.50.92-26.44.36---->12.50.49
3.50.92-26.40.00---->12.48.70
3.50.92-26.35.00---->12.47.15
3.50.92-26.30.00---->12.45.60
3.50.00-26.30.00---->12.44.49
3.48.00-26.30.00---->12.42.13
3.46.00-26.30.00---->12.39.77
3.44.00-26.30.00---->12.37.42
3.43.93-26.30.00---->12.37.33
at AR in mile
3.46.91-26.18.71---->12.37.34
What is his actual level?
Nope
USA Golds wrote:
Rupp will eclipse many times and folks this season over 5000, the question is, how far will he get?
No. Your question was will he threaten the world record.
get used to it. wrote:
Have read some of your posts. You remind me of the T-Rexing guy. You talk a lot of nonsense yet seem so damn sure of yourself. ....
LOL! Look, yes, I've embarrassed you by demonstrating your complete lack of knowledge concerning basic nutrition. Time to get over it or at least "get used to it". But stop being a little bitch and crying about it on threads that have nothing to with it.
(ok, now change your name and write: " I agree with that 'get used to guy', T-Rex is quite the imbicile(sic). 'get used to it' OTOH is a very brillient (sic) poster and nise (sic) guy' )
Lol, you itty bittly little man. You are the one who was embarrassed. By my trolling...He He.
Tyrannosaurus Rexing wrote:
get used to it. wrote:Have read some of your posts. You remind me of the T-Rexing guy. You talk a lot of nonsense yet seem so damn sure of yourself. ....
LOL! Look, yes, I've embarrassed you by demonstrating your complete lack of knowledge concerning basic nutrition. Time to get over it or at least "get used to it". But stop being a little bitch and crying about it on threads that have nothing to with it.
(ok, now change your name and write: " I agree with that 'get used to guy', T-Rex is quite the imbicile(sic). 'get used to it' OTOH is a very brillient (sic) poster and nise (sic) guy' )
The calculator says he could break 12:50 on a good day. That looks right to me.
USA Golds wrote:
I know this is a stretch, but a guy who goes 3:50 & 7:30 indoors and is now in 26:3X shape certainly is ready for a phenomenal 5000, or will be in a few weeks. He's a class ahead of other americans who have done 12:55-12:56, probably at least ready for 12:45-12:48 right now.
By the end of summer, could he be attacking 12:40? That's right at the door.
Other than becoming a new father, and that is a factor, he seems ready to get there!
Lol you're so funny.
Facts: 2011- 2648 10k. 2012- 1258.9 5k.
Logic: 2014- 2644 10k. 2014/2015- 12:56.9 5k.
Rationale: 10k is 4 seconds faster, so 2 seconds per 5k, means 5k is 2 seconds better.
Slippery slope thinking of Ventolin's disciples. Ran 26:44 but could have run 26:36 on ideal day at max effort riding jock of pacesetter for 9900 meters. But 26:36 = 12:48 based on two other unrelated guys running similar times in the same year. But the 12:48 guy could have run 12:44 but he ran too much in lane 2 for the last 200 meters trying to pass a guy he lapped. So Rupp should be able to run sub 12:44 because his nasal strips will make him wind resistant than said hypothetical 12:44 guy.
Star wrote:
USA Golds wrote:Rupp will eclipse many times and folks this season over 5000, the question is, how far will he get?
No. Your question was will he threaten the world record.
Meaning, will he get that far?
NotAustin18 wrote:
USA Golds wrote:I know this is a stretch, but a guy who goes 3:50 & 7:30 indoors and is now in 26:3X shape certainly is ready for a phenomenal 5000, or will be in a few weeks. He's a class ahead of other americans who have done 12:55-12:56, probably at least ready for 12:45-12:48 right now.
By the end of summer, could he be attacking 12:40? That's right at the door.
Other than becoming a new father, and that is a factor, he seems ready to get there!
Lol you're so funny.
Facts: 2011- 2648 10k. 2012- 1258.9 5k.
Logic: 2014- 2644 10k. 2014/2015- 12:56.9 5k.
Rationale: 10k is 4 seconds faster, so 2 seconds per 5k, means 5k is 2 seconds better.
Who has ever run better than 12:58 at PRE for 5000?
You'd be better to compare his indoor season of 2011 or 2012 to this indoor season, and remember that this was he 2nd race outdoors, not an August meet.
This year so far: 3:50, 8:07, 13:01 indoors. 26:44. Are you arguing that this is just another year for Rupp? The work he was putting in indoors is about to pay off now.
I get that he may not get it, or likely wont. But I do think he can bang at 12:40.
http://www.iaaf.org/athletes/kenya/daniel-komen-15134Komen doesn't seem to have had the 10K & Half range
http://www.iaaf.org/athletes/kenya/paul-tergat-9745Tergat not so much at the mile, and Rupp is just shy of him at 3K
http://www.iaaf.org/athletes/ethiopia/haile-gebrselassie-8774At 1500-2 miles Rupp is nearly comparable to Geb.
http://www.iaaf.org/athletes/ethiopia/sileshi-sihine-186987He's actually darn close to Shihine from 3000 to half marathon.
http://www.iaaf.org/athletes/ethiopia/kenenisa-bekele-138200At the 1500 level he's not far off, but obviously contends a lot over 10,000.
While on paper he is not ahead of any of these guys, but he's really up there knocking on the door of most of them.
Only at one of the remaining indoor meets or big Eugene meets this summer. He never runs all that fast anywhere else.
ksksk wrote:
dkny64 wrote:No. I happened to watch the video of Bekele's 12:37 the other day. It was an absolutely maxed out effort by someone with significantly faster PRs than Rupp at 3000m and at 10000m.
Can Rupp break 12:50? Sure. 12:45? Maybe, but that would make him the #4 performer of all time. 12:40? Not a chance. There are exactly 3 guys who have ever done it - Haile G, Kenny B and Daniel "7:20 for 3000m" Komen. Rupp just isn't at that level.
Perhaps you should watch Bekele's race again. He had more than 1 sub60 lap in that run. Not what I would call a maximum effort. Neither was his 10000 which probably should have been sub 26:10 that day.
I did notice the 59.xx laps interspersed with the 60.xx laps. I also noticed the strain on his face and how little he had left at the end.
One thing that surprised me was how little help he got from pace making. His rabbit dropped out after 2000m in 5:05 and Bekele led the rest of the way. No idea why they didn't get him a rabbit to at least take him through 3000m in, say, 7:35. He in fact hit 3000m in 7:37, then closed the last 2000m in 5 flat. So...could Kenny B have gone faster than 12:37 with more help? Probably so. Could Galen Rupp run a time anywhere close to 12:37? No.
Let me just start by saying hell no, there is absolutely no way in hell that Rupp will get the 5k world record. His better event is the 10k and he is miles away from the world record in that.
This is a more ridiculous question than whether he can threaten the WR at 10,000.
NotAustin18 wrote:
USA Golds wrote:I know this is a stretch, but a guy who goes 3:50 & 7:30 indoors and is now in 26:3X shape certainly is ready for a phenomenal 5000, or will be in a few weeks. He's a class ahead of other americans who have done 12:55-12:56, probably at least ready for 12:45-12:48 right now.
By the end of summer, could he be attacking 12:40? That's right at the door.
Other than becoming a new father, and that is a factor, he seems ready to get there!
Lol you're so funny.
Facts: 2011- 2648 10k. 2012- 1258.9 5k.
Logic: 2014- 2644 10k. 2014/2015- 12:56.9 5k.
Rationale: 10k is 4 seconds faster, so 2 seconds per 5k, means 5k is 2 seconds better.
Hmmm. Or one could argue that Rupp finished that 12:58.90 5000m 1.27 seconds behind Isiah Koech, who ran 12:48.64 that same year in the Paris 5000m and say Rupp was probably in roughly 12:48.64 + 1.27 = 12:49.91 shape that summer if he had run in a fast time-trial type race such as Paris. And now he's gone from 26:48.00 for 10000m in a race he lost to 26:44.36 in a race he won. So...I think Rupp has a very realistic shot at breaking 12:50 for 5000m this year if he gets in the right race with the right weather conditions, right pacing, etc, etc.
That's a lot of ifs, but it could certainly happen.
How about Mo Farah, I feel like he always waits until the last 400-600m to go hard, and I also feel like he never just went balls to the wall in a race in a while. If Rupp could go 12:45 maybe, that's a big maybe, then Farah should be able to bust out a 12:40 if he ever went hard in a 5k. It seems like he cared more about that 1500m where he ran 3:28 than any 5k.
guy that runs stuff wrote:
How about Mo Farah, I feel like he always waits until the last 400-600m to go hard, and I also feel like he never just went balls to the wall in a race in a while. If Rupp could go 12:45 maybe, that's a big maybe, then Farah should be able to bust out a 12:40 if he ever went hard in a 5k. It seems like he cared more about that 1500m where he ran 3:28 than any 5k.
I have come to really dislike "Mo Money" Farah because I think he cares more about money than he does about his sport or his place in its history.
To be fair to Mo, however, I have also come to realize that he loves to compete and has no interest in time trialing. When he ran that 3:28, he was trying to compete against the best 1500m runner in the world, and Mo's ability + his competitive nature pulled him to a great time. I guess it's possible he'll get himself in shape for a fast 5000m later this summer, but there isn't a lot of money in it for him and it isn't the kind of thing he likes to do, so I'm betting he'll use the summer to rebuild his fitness, then collect some nice fat paychecks for road "races" this fall along the lines of that bogus 3-man exhibition he ran with Geb and Kenny B last year. [You will believe three legends can be paid enormous appearance fees to go on a tempo run together then race the last 1000m for beers.]
guy that runs stuff wrote:
How about Mo Farah, I feel like he always waits until the last 400-600m to go hard, and I also feel like he never just went balls to the wall in a race in a while. If Rupp could go 12:45 maybe, that's a big maybe, then Farah should be able to bust out a 12:40 if he ever went hard in a 5k. It seems like he cared more about that 1500m where he ran 3:28 than any 5k.
Why would Farah be able to run 12:40 based on Rupp running 12:45?