Could Mary Cain Go Sub 4???

haha, sub-4 mile thats hilarious.

sub-4 1500 might happen for her this year!

I could see her going 3:49 by the time she is 24 or 25. I hope she does, take the dopers off the 1500 record books. So on the one hand I could see her just being the most unbelievable middle distance runner ever and have a career PR of like 3:48, and on the other hand maybe she isn't head and shoulders better than anyone ever and she finishes with like a 3:53 or so, or if injuries get in the way.

she will run sub-3.40 for 1500 (so sub-4 equivalent but can't get a rabbit beyond 600m). Galen will run under 3.40 for mile (as will Mo Farah) and Hasay will run sub-14 minutes for 5k and sub-29 for 10k. These performances are only a matter of time. Then Galen and Mo will break 2hrs for marathon and Hasay and Cain will go under 2h15, the latter eventually under 2h10. Not sure why people don't understand this? AlSal has it all figured out and all of it is clean. He could take a journeyman runner and make them world class in just a couple of years. He should be the only coach allowed in the US, everyone else should quit or go worship at his feet.

Mary Cain is ugly. Sooooo her records don't matter. Galen is ugly too so his records don't matter either.

What ever happened to that random HS girl who ran 33 for a 10000?

LM wrote:Just look at Rudisha, he is probably 2s faster than Aman or Amos over 400m, and yet runs less than a second faster over 800m

i'd suggest that is way off

rudy probably in 44-high in london & amos maybe 45-mid

aman possibly 46-low/46-flat ( you can't be an ~ 1'42-flat talent & not have slower than ~ 46+ speed )

I'd be really curious though if Ventolin is around as to what absurd hypothetical times you would need to run something like 3:30 mile with 47 second speed; or just how much endurance a 44 sec 400 guy would need to run 3:30 in the mile.

i can't even fathom the thought of a 3'30 mile with only 47 speed

if it does ever happen ( few hundered years ), a prelim line of fit for a 3'30 mile guy in hicham's mould woud be :

45.0 / 1'37.1 -> 3'14.5 , 3'30.2

the 400/800 ratio is similar to hicham's theoretical peak :

47.5 / 1'42.7 -> 3'25.7 , 3'42.3

hicham almost certainly have run 1'42-high on his 3'26wr day ( 1'42-high off primary 1500 training )

the version required to run 3'30, woud be able to run 1'37-flat off 1500 training

No of course not. Mary Cain just ran a pretty good high school boy's time... with pacers. She could probably WALK ON to some decent D1 men's college rosters with that time. That being said, considering she is being trained by arguably the best coach in the world right now... No, Mary Cain will never go sub 4, I'd be willing to bet my life savings and then some.

ventolin^3 wrote:

probably maybe

possibly

woud

theoretical

almost certainly

woud

LOL

(and it's "would")

Pondering wrote:

At 17, Mary Cain just ran a 4:24 mile. If trained properly, she could have anywhere from 8-10 more years of speed races left in her. Seeing how Galen could potentially get the indoor mile world record at the age of 27, is there a possibility that Mary could drop 25 seconds and be the first female under the 4 minute barrier by the time she's 27? Alberto clearly knows how to keep his athletes from plateauing (He's been training Galen since HS).

Thoughts?

Omg 10/10 I''m SHOCKED people are responding seriously

the mile is rarely run; the women's 1500m record translates to a 4:08, although it's certainly dirty

Realistically wrote:

That being said, considering she is being trained by arguably the best coach in the world right now.

Salazar is not arguably the best coach in the world right now. Not at all.

osmm wrote:

Salazar is not arguably the best coach in the world right now. Not at all.

That's right no argument. He just flat out IS the best!!

6udu65 wrote:

Before I finished reading, I was thinking "Sub 4 in the 1500? Yeah why not?" When I realized it was the mile I laughed out loud.

Agreed! me too.

What???????? wrote:

the mile is rarely run; the women's 1500m record translates to a 4:08, although it's certainly dirty

WR mile is 4:12, and I think Yunxia's 1500m is worth more like 4:09-10

which would be relevant if Yunxia's record translates to a 4:08.2-4:09.8 depending on the method used. The women run the mile even less often than the men do. The women's mile record is kind of irrelevant.

i'd suggest that is way off

rudy probably in 44-high in london & amos maybe 45-mid

Wouldn't argue there. Though it seems that even more emphasizes the idea that as you start to get into times generally run by 400 sprinters, the capacity to endure tapers quickly.

i can't even fathom the thought of a 3'30 mile with only 47 speed

Neither can I, and the only reason I threw that out there is it seems that as you get much faster than that athletes start losing the capacity to endure.

You know far more runners than I do, but I can't think of any runners of the top of my head with sub 47 speed that have the kind of lasting potential that a Bekele or Geb would have...and you would need ALOT more than that I'm sure to make 3:30 possible.

What does 47 speed with 26:17 10000 WR record get you anyway?

This is just me thinking out loud working in the confines of what we have seen today. Obviously, unless it turns out that there exist people with Rudy like speed but great endurance to last we aren't going to see 3:30 at any point.

It feels to me when we are talking about something that much faster we would need to have some special athlete out there with potential for say 45.0 speed but entirely endurance oriented...or have totally different coaching methods that allow speed to be developed to a much greater extent than is possible now while maintaining same endurance...or some new paradigm that allows for previous unthinkable endurance.

> What ever happened to that random HS girl who ran 33 for a 10000?

Which one?

32:52.5 Mary Shea (Gibbons, Raleigh, North Carolina) 1979

33:17.3 Cayla Hatton (Phillips, Andover, Massachusetts) 2012

33:26.5 *Cathy Schiro (Dover, New Hampshire) 1984

If you mean the most recent one, Cayla Hatton is at Stanford, but did not run on the team in 2013.

http://www.gostanford.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=30600&ATCLID=208434164

P.S. that doesn't happen at "random". It takes talent and work.

cag wrote:

Mary Cain is ugly. Sooooo her records don't matter. Galen is ugly too so his records don't matter either.

Kind of curious what the non-ugly world records are in all events.

huggy bear wrote:

she will run sub-3.40 for 1500 (so sub-4 equivalent but can't get a rabbit beyond 600m). Galen will run under 3.40 for mile (as will Mo Farah) and Hasay will run sub-14 minutes for 5k and sub-29 for 10k. These performances are only a matter of time. Then Galen and Mo will break 2hrs for marathon and Hasay and Cain will go under 2h15, the latter eventually under 2h10. Not sure why people don't understand this? AlSal has it all figured out and all of it is clean. He could take a journeyman runner and make them world class in just a couple of years. He should be the only coach allowed in the US, everyone else should quit or go worship at his feet.

I hope you realize that this is absurd.

Of COURSE Cain could get a pacer that could last for 800 meters. Such a pacer would only need to run 1:57.0, well outside the women's world record. Ideally, of the perhaps two clean runners in the world today capable of that, one of them would hit the requisite 58.5/58.5 splits. I suggest that Alysia Montano be recruited for the task, since she usually splits her 1:58-1:59 races quite evenly, around 55/63 or 64 as I recall. BOOM!