Sooner: You are right on the money.
Nike does read these message boards; and if they were really smart, they would write the Bros. Johnson a very large check.
In the video on the Nike Free site, the designer says that they talked to the Stanford coach who said that running barefoot made their guys faster. If I had a crystal ball, I would guess that this guy was pretty jazzed about getting sent on a trip to Cali and hanging out with some fast smart kids. But I bet that this dude got pretty warm in the trousers when he realized what he was onto. But that is probably just half the story.
Chances are that there is also some guy on some Super Advanced Concept Group who gets paid way more that you or me to predict the future. For months, he was doing one of a couple of things: 1) training 2) checking out the LetsRun message board 3) going to random events and trolling for ideas. In the process, he noticed something like 20 different threads about minimalist running shoes, and that was all he needed to justify to Big Phil that there was a market for this shoe. Especially after the designer came to him with this crazy idea he got while hangin’ down at Stanford. At that point, the Free had two very important things: 1) a sellable story and 2) a market to justify its production.
Nike says that they are all about Innovation. But Innovation does not get built without a business case. And that is where LetsRun comes into play: This message board is the eBay of running ideas. None of us gets paid for it, but we drive the market by barking about what we want.
And this is my real beef about the Free. All of you purists do not realize what is going on here. This is more than a good shoe, this is an important shoe. Think back to the 180. Cushion was it. Nike introduced it, and all the other shoe vendors got all up in the place with their special cushioning goo. But Nike had already won, because there was nothing as soft or as light as nothing. Asics did the same in the early 90s with their 2000 series. They made a reasonable support shoe and all the other vendors fell neatly into place.
And the funny thing is that it does not even take a good idea to get the market to move. Look at Shox. These are terrible shoes, but adidas came out with their A3 series just because Nike came out so strong when they launched the Shox. Energy return? Give me a break.
The Free represents the birth of the minimalist shoe.
But all of you jokers out there complaining about heel height are killing the revolution. Right now, there are people at adidas, Brooks, Asics thinking hard about the Free. (And if they are not, they should be.) Let’s take an imaginary trip to adidas corporate headquarters in Germany. I will translate: “Holy Crap! What do we do about the Free? We must build a minimal shoe!” “Nothing to worry about Heir Dassler. All these guys really want are flats and we already make those.”
Nike innovates with the endgame in mind. They spend money on projects like the Free, and if they take off, they have the first mover advantage. But other vendors need to get into the game too if this thing is really going to take off. Imagine going to the website of your favorite shoe company and seeing shoes broken down into Cushion, Support, Minimal, Competition.
Reality: you are also right about the potential of them dropping the shoe. The real tragedy is that if they drop the Free, the idea of the minimalist shoe dies too. And then you miss out on all the crazy “Innovation” that Nike could pack into 10 ounces of material. Granted they may not have the Free dialed in to what you think a non shoe shoe should be, but it is the idea that counts.
All you complainers are all missing an incredible opportunity: not only to direct a multi billion dollar organization, but to launch a brand new type of running shoe.