The victory of Horner is something really exceptional, since never there was some athlete over 40 able to win at international level in cycling. It may be like Haile Gebrselassie in running, still one of the best when very much older than his "official" 40 years.
But what did impress in more strong way, was not his victory, because in cycling (different from athletics) there are not "measured" performances, and you can win because are the best at the moment, against, for example, a poor field, or using some particular situation created by the competition (for example, earning 10:00 escaping with a Group of cyclists not considered good for the final classification, like happened many times in Tour de France and Giro d'Italia, and after staying at the top of the race you can have the team at your disposal and discover you can also take care of the general classification).
What did impress are the objective values Horner showed on the mountains. His VAM (which is the velocity used for climbing a mountain combined with the difference of altitude) was something as 684, when scientists consider about 630 the humen limit. His VO2 max was over 104, while Eddy Merckx, the higher known till today, was about 93.
These values are very much higher than the top values of Lance Armstrong, during the better shape of his life (and we know whatLance used for reaching these values...).
And all this from an athlete 42 years old !
So, of course the most part of people have doubt he's doped, since is not possible to explain some exploit like this, starting from the "normal" ideas there are about doping.
However, since we don't have some proof, we must look at Horner like at a "clean" cyclist. And, in any case, which kind of doping could he find, for destroying while 42 all the technical data of Lance Armstrong ?
So, I know now I go to provoke again a big "earthquake" among the posters, there is another possibility :
DOPING ALWAYS IS OVERRATED, BECAUSE ALL CYCLISTS USED THE SAME SYSTEM, so there is the idea without doping is not possible to go so fast, or to recovery so well after every stage.
You know my personal position about doping (I speak about BLOOD DOPING only, not steroids) for the best distance runners from Kenya and Ethiopia : I CONTINUE TO REPEAT THIS DOESN'T WORK WITH THE BEST, who have a paticulat situation living and training in altitude, WHEN THEY ARE ABLE TO FOLLOW A HARD AND SCIENTIFIC TRAINING.
I continue to say that with doping, the best talented athletes under the aerobic side CAN'T OVERTAKE THE RESULTS THEY CAN REACH WITH THEIR TRAINING, if their training has continity at very high level.
The physiological parameters we can change with training can bring the athletes to a level where doping can't work anymore.
If you compare the physiological parameters of a top CLEAN athlete (running for example Marathon in 2:04) and of a DOPED athlete (there was some case like Goumri banned for the biologicalpassport) running 2:05, YOU CAN SEE A LOT OF DIFFERENCES : in the first case, we have blood with very low viscosity, and a presence of 20% of capillaries more than in the second case.
This means that, in the first case, athletes have their max transportation of Oxygen because of the low viscosity, increasing the velocity of the blood circulation ; in the second case, because of the viscosity, the circulation is slower, but the levels of Hematocryte is higher.
Practically, it's like to have to transport items from the producer to the users : in the first case, you give the users less material more frequently, in the second case more material less frequently.
In every case of athletes improving their PB using doping, the jump of quality was a big increase in the training intensity. Having higher aerobic support, they didn't need to work in that direction increasing the volume, but were already ready for putting DIRECTLY more quality.
That's the reason because we are able to recognize, among the athletes, looking at long periods of their training, WHO USES DOPING and WHO DOESN'T USE. If I see some athlete able to have for a long period of time a great volume of LACTIC WORKOUTS, without losing his shape, and at the same time I never see in his training a real aerobic support (for example, Boulami never ran longer than 1 hour at easy pace, and never used long intervals for maintaining high level of aerobic power, but was able for longer than 3 months to train with continuity increasing the level of his lactic workouts, and this was not possible without strong aerobic support : in this case, the assumption of EPO was evident, also before his positive test in Zurich 2002), this athletes uses some blood doping in order to have high aerobic power, provoking by the possibility to transport more Oxygen WITH A REDUCED SPEED OF BLOOD CIRCULATION, due to the high viscosity.
But you can have the same big increase in the training intensity if, before, you are able to increase the VOLUME OF AEROBIC POWER in your training, producing physiological effects BETTER than what you can achieve with doping (for example, an increase of 25% in the total volume of blood).
At the end, the real problem is that, when you propose to an endurance athlete (may be runner or cyclist) an increase of the volume of training, and inside this to build the ability for increasing the VOLUME OF INTENSIVE TRAINING, runners and cyclists refuse to try, because MENTALLY they think not possible to recover this type of training WITHOUT USING SOME EXTERNAL HELP.
When they decide to use some drug, finally they feel themselves able to recovery, and go to increase their training. THIS IS THE REASON OF THEIR IMPROVEMENT : so we can look at every type of blood doping as THE REASON BECAUSE THEY ACCEPT TO WORK MORE, but when they finally are able to do this, automatically they increase their performances.
This means that, IF SOMEBODY IS ABLE TO TRY TO INCREASE HIS TRAINING WITHOUT DOPING, because mentally doesn't fear to be destroyed by his training and doesn't put mental barriers to himself, we can have not only the same results of people using doping, BUT BETTER because this type of athletes have higher self confidence and more tranquillity, knowing they are totally clean and don't fear any kind of control.
May be Horner is simply a cyclist who was mentally free to try more hard training without being conditioned, and was able to discover, day after day,that his body could recover while before he didn't think this possible.
Many times, with top Champions, is the self confidence making the difference. New situation, incredible motivation, will to explore himself for overtaking the old personal limits.
The future can give more indications about this abnormal situation. But, in any case, Horner's victory is something all people, thinking Always of doping, are to think about.